Avery Perri

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers’ second-round series shifts to Sunrise on Friday.

The pregame narrative: The Maple Leafs are in uncharted waters in the “Core Four” era, taking a 2-0 lead with them on the road after a pair of nail-biting wins. Florida is heavily favoured to win Game 3 and hopes to get better goaltending from a struggling Sergei Bobrovsky.

Check out my Panthers vs. Maple Leafs best bets for Game 3 of the second round, featuring Brad Marchand and Max Pacioretty.

Maple Leafs vs. Panthers best bets

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Best Bet: Maple Leafs +1.5 (-138)

Florida will throw its best shot at Toronto on Friday, guaranteed. After all, the Panthers are reigning Stanley Cup champs for a reason.

But I believe this Maple Leafs group is different, and I’m happy to bank a goal with them on the road.

Toronto has covered this line in all but one of its playoff games. The team has bought in defensively, blocking a whopping 25 shots and throwing 41 hits in Wednesday’s Game 2 win.

And throughout the entire postseason, the Leafs are giving up the fourth-fewest 5v5 shots per 60 (22.71), according to Natural Stat Trick.

I am most bullish on this play, though, because of the goaltending.

Joseph Woll was clutch when it mattered in Game 2 and has posted a 2.33 GAA and .940 SV% in three regular-season starts against Florida.

Bobrovsky, meanwhile, has allowed 18 goals in his last five starts with an .850 SV%. The netminder has proven to be streaky in his career, and Toronto’s offence is firing on all cylinders.

Will the Panthers win this game? Maybe. But I don’t think it will be in a blowout.

Key stat: Toronto has covered a +1.5 puck line in 18 of its last 20 games (3-1 vs. Florida in that span), winning 16 of those games outright.

Game 3 picks

Marchand to record a point (+100): Marchand has new threads, but he’s still the same old playoff menace.

• The former Boston Bruin has seven points this postseason (one goal, six assists).

• He’s cleared this line in four straight games (six total points), with three points against the Maple Leafs.

Marchand’s line with Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen has dominated this matchup. They own a series-best 83.31% xG rate and have a 66.67% Corsi rate.

This seems like a great price to buy in on a historic Leaf-killer.

Pacioretty to record a point (+130): Pacioretty has been on a rampage since his promotion to the second line with William Nylander and John Tavares.

• He’s registered six points (two goals) in three games, going 3-0 against this line.
  
• Pacioretty has generated 16.69 chances per 60 since the move, second among all Maple Leafs skaters.

The veteran winger should keep getting run after coming in the clutch. He scored the series-winning goal against the Ottawa Senators and added another goal against the Panthers on Wednesday.

Nylander and Tavares hold -200 and -143 odds, respectively, to register a point in Game 3. They’re both on the top power play, unlike Pacioretty, but that still seems like a wild discrepancy for a guy creating plenty of chances.

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs best bets made at 9:00 a.m. ET 05/09/2025.

Leon Draisaitl and Andrei Svechnikov are my picks to score during Thursday’s NHL playoff action.

Today’s NHL narrative: The Edmonton Oilers and Carolina Hurricanes won their respective Game 1s on the road. Both teams now have a chance to send the Vegas Golden Knights and Washington Capitals on the road down 0-2.

Check out the best NHL anytime goal picks for May 8.

NHL anytime goal picks

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Best Bet: Svechnikov to score (+187)

Svechnikov has kicked things into overdrive this playoff with five goals, already equaling a quarter of his regular-season production.

The Russian winger is firing pucks at will, and his line with Jackson Blake and Sebastian Aho has been flat-out dominating.

• The Blake-Aho-Svechnikov line played 14:34 together in Game 1, generating 30 chances and an 85.71% Corsi rate.

• This postseason, Svechnikov is leading all skaters in 5-on-5 chances per 60 (28.57).

Washington has been a mess defensively despite beating the Montreal Canadiens in five games. The Caps are allowing the second-most chances (71.73) and fifth-most shots (29.71) on a 60-minute basis.

Playing on a red-hot line and getting top power-play minutes, Svechnikov seems like a great value to score tonight.

Key stat: Svechnikov ranks fifth in expected goals per 60 (1.54) this postseason.

NHL prop predictions

Draisaitl to score (+115): What can I say about Draisaitl that hasn’t already been said?

The German winger is a scoring machine, potting a league-best 52 goals during the regular season. He’s found the net in four of seven playoff games and is up to 45 career postseason goals in 81 games.

That 0.556 goals/game rate is the eighth-best all-time, and second among active players behind Nathan MacKinnon (0.579).

Draisaitl scored in Game 1, and his line with Connor McDavid and Corey Perry dominated play, generating a 71.43% Corsi rate.

Golden Knights netminder Adin Hill has also been shaky, sporting a 3.01 GAA and .876 SV% this postseason.

NHL anytime goal picks made at 12:27 p.m. ET on 05/08/2025.

The Edmonton Oilers and Vegas Golden Knights meet for Game 2 on Thursday night.

The pregame narrative: Edmonton became the first team in NHL history with five consecutive playoff comeback wins on Tuesday and now has a chance to send the series home with a 2-0 lead.

Check out my Oilers vs. Golden Knights prop picks on Evan Bouchard and Corey Perry for Game 2 on May 8.

Oilers vs. Golden Knights picks

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Best bet: Bouchard to record an assist (-108)

Where would the Oilers be without Bouchard?

The defenceman has been eating massive minutes for Edmonton and consistently contributing with four goals and five assists in seven games.

He had a pair of apples in Game 1 against Vegas while logging a team-high 26:27 of ice time and is a good bet to find the score sheet again.

Bouchard is -163 to record a point, which I think is playable. He has 41 points in his last 32 postseason games, clearing that mark in 22 of those contests. That 68% hit rate exceeds the 62% implied probability of the wager.

But I’ll instead opt for him to record an assist, which comes in at -108.

Bouchard is running point on a lethal power play that features Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. That unit is 5-for-9 since Game 2 of the opening round.

The rearguard leads all Oilers with 39 chances (i.e., shot attempts), so there are always plenty of opportunities for tip-ins and rebounds.

Key stat: Bouchard has 31 assists in 32 playoff games since the start of last season.

Game 2 prop prediction

Perry to record a point (+120): I backed Perry on this market in Game 1 at +125, and he came through, scoring the Oilers’ first goal of the series.

McDavid and Draisaitl assisted on that play, which is why I’m going back to the 39-year-old tonight.

• The Draisaitl-McDavid-Perry line logged 42:49 of ice time together against L.A. and out-chanced the opposition 62-to-29 (68.13% Corsi rate).

• They had 9:22 of ice time together in Game 1 and out-chanced the Golden Knights 10-to-4 (71.43% Corsi rate).

Perry doesn’t log big minutes — he’s averaging 13:39 TOI this postseason — but when he’s on the ice, it’s with two of the best players of all time.

That’s good enough to justify a bet in my books.

Oilers vs. Golden Knights prop picks made at 11:15 a.m. ET 05/08/2025.

The Dallas Stars and Winnipeg Jets begin their second-round series on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: Both teams are playing with house money after mounting improbable third-period comebacks in their respective Game 7s. Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck is freed up and will need to be sharp to best Dallas, which may be getting Jason Robertson (game-time decision) back.

Check out my Stars vs. Jets prop picks on Matt Duchene and Kyle Connor for Game 1 on May 7.

Stars vs. Jets picks

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Best bet: Duchene to not record a point (-134)

Before we get into the picks, let’s contextualize how unlikely this matchup is.

There have only been five instances of a multi-goal comeback in Game 7 in NHL history, and two occurred in the last week.

None were as crazy as what happened in Winnipeg — the Jets erased a 3-1 deficit with two minutes left, scoring the game-tying goal with mere seconds to play before winning in double overtime.

Hellebuyck turned away all 13 shots faced in the third period and overtime. The soon-to-be Vezina winner had this to say postgame: “The weight of the world is off my shoulders … and that had nothing to do with anyone else. It’s just the mental grind of that series.”

That’s my long-winded way of saying I think Hellebuyck is back, which is why I’m fading Duchene.

Hellebuyck posted a 2.01 GAA (best in the NHL) and .925 SV% (second-best) during the regular season.

Duchene had some key contributions in Game 7 but was still held off the stat sheet in five games, including all three on the road.

Key stat: Hellebuyck owned a 1.01 GAA and .965 SV% in four starts against Dallas this year. Duchene was held pointless in each game.

Game 1 prop prediction

Connor over 2.5 shots (-175): Connor built off his spectacular regular season by going berserk in Round 1. He led the Jets in all of the following stats:

• Goals (4)
• Assists (8)
• Shots (22)
• Chances (45)

The American-born winger only cleared this line in three games, but he turned in a seven-shot performance in Game 7.

Dallas was missing its defensive lynchpin, Miro Heiskanen, in the opening round. The Finn has been ruled out for Game 1, too.

Without Heiskanen, the Stars gave up the most chances (73.8) and the second-most shots (31.65) on a 60-minute basis, according to Natural Stat Trick.

Connor averaged 3.25 shots per game during the regular season.

Stars vs. Jets prop picks made at 2:42 p.m. ET 05/07/2025.