Staff Writer

Best NHL anytime goalscorer picks Feb. 27: Back Alexander Ovechkin, Tomas Hertl to score

I’ve got two goalscorer bets from Thursday’s NHL slate.

The pregame narrative: Alexander Ovechkin is barrelling toward Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goal scoring record and I expect him to get one notch closer tonight. After that, look for Tomas Hertl to provide offence for the Vegas Golden Knights.

Check out my NHL anytime goal picks for Feb. 27.

NHL anytime goal picks

Best Bet: Ovechkin to score (+110)

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What can I say about Ovechkin that hasn’t been said?

The soon-to-be NHL recordholder has been scoring at will in his 20th season and is now 12 markets shy of passing Gretzky, who sits at 894 goals.

Ovechkin has 30 goals in 42 games this season (0.71 goals per game).
He missed 12 games with a broken fibula but has scored 15 goals in 24 games since returning on Dec. 28 (0.62 goal per game clip).
Ovechkin’s 3.79 shots per game ranks fifth in the NHL.

He has turned up the heat lately, scoring eight goals in as many games and clearing this line six times.

Ovechkin ripped home a hat trick on nine shots against the Edmonton Oilers on Sunday and followed that up with a goal on five shots against the Calgary Flames on Tuesday.

Washington’s captain is firing on all cylinders and Thursday’s opponent, the St. Louis Blues, are ripe for the taking.

Joel Hofer is in net over Jordan Binnington, and the 24-year-old hasn’t been great this season. He has a 2.88 GAA to pair with a .903 SV% and has allowed 14 goals in his last four starts.

Key stat: Ovechkin scored twice against the Blues on Nov. 9.

Top picks to score

Hertl anytime goalscorer (+180): Bettors should be looking to fade the Chicago Blackhawks any time they take the ice. That’s what I’m doing tonight by backing Hertl to score.

The Blackhawks rank near the bottom of the NHL in almost every defensive category on a 60-minute basis, per Natural Stat Trick:

3.44 goals (30th)
31.5 shots (30th)
63.2 chances (30th)
12.8 high-danger chances (30th)

Hertl is playing on Vegas’ top line and power-play unit and has 10 goals in his last 14 games. He’s registered at least three shots in five of his last six games and should have plenty of chances to bury one tonight.

Picks made at 2:46 p.m. ET on 02/27/2025.

Timberwolves vs. Lakers prop picks Feb. 27: Bet on Edwards and Hayes to clear their point totals

Thursday’s NBA nightcap is a good one, as the Los Angeles Lakers host the Minnesota Timberwolves.

The pregame narrative: Los Angeles has been rolling since acquiring Luka Doncic, while Minnesota is fighting to get out of the Western Conference play-in picture. I’m turning to one player from each team — Anthony Edwards and Jaxson Hayes — to clear their point totals.

Check out my Timberwolves vs. Lakers prop picks for Feb. 27.

Timberwolves vs. Lakers prop picks

Best bet: Edwards over 27.5 points (-130)

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Edwards is listed as questionable with calf soreness per the NBA’s 11:30 a.m. injury report.

But I’m not worried about that. The Timberwolves begin a back-to-back tonight with a matchup against the Utah Jazz tomorrow, so all signs would point to Edward resting for Friday’s matchup instead.

And when the shooting guard is in the lineup, he’s been lights out. Check out his stats since the calendar turned to 2025:

31.0 points/game
22.2 FGA/game
28+ points in 17/25 games
30+ points in 13/25 games

Edwards is coming off a 17-point stinker against the Oklahoma City Thunder — who own the league’s best defensive rating — on Monday, but that was on the second leg of a back-to-back.

He scored 29 points against them the day prior and is averaging 28.0 PPG with two-plus days of rest this season.

Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert are out, and Donte DiVincenzo (toe) is questionable. Edwards should be taking the lion’s share of shots tonight.

Key stat: Edwards is averaging 33.5 points across his last eight games, clearing this line six times.

Quick pick

Hayes over 6.5 points (+100): Hayes has hit the jackpot, falling backwards into Los Angeles’ starting centre spot after Los Angeles’ trade for Mark Williams “fell through.”

The No. 8 overall pick from 2019 didn’t pan out with the New Orleans Pelicans, but his responsibilities on the Lakers are simple: Clean the glass and catch lobs from Doncic and LeBron James.

Hayes hasn’t attempted a single 3-pointer since moving into the starting lineup on Jan. 30. In that span, he’s 7-4 against this line while shooting 78.0% from the field.

Minnesota’s interior defence is elite but that’s largely thanks to Gobert. With him sidelined, I love Hayes’ chances of clearing this mark as his minutes stay steady.

Picks made at 11:46 a.m. ET on 02/27/2025.

Nuggets vs. Bucks same-game parlay predictions Feb. 27: Bet on Milwaukee as home underdogs, Murray to score at +310

Thursday’s matchup between the Denver Nuggets and Milwaukee Bucks has it all.

The pregame narrative: Both teams are rolling, with MVP winners Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic leading the charge. I’m teasing up Milwaukee as home underdogs and taking the under on a massively teased-up game total. Finally, bet on Jamal Murray to fill the basket.

Check out my Nuggets vs. Bucks same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 27.

Nuggets vs. Bucks predictions

Parlay: Bucks +5.5 | Under 250.5 points | Murray 20+ points (+310)

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Bucks +5.5 (-200): Milwaukee has been a very streaky team this season and it looks like its about to catch a heater.

The Bucks have won four of their last five games with a three-point loss to the Houston Rockets mixed in. Overall, they’ve covered a +5.5 spread in eight of their last nine contests.

On the season, Doc Rivers’ squad is an impressive 19-9 at home.

Denver is 18-11 on the road and has won 10 of its last 11. But the Nuggets have beaten up on some bad teams in that stretch (Pelicans twice, Trail Blazers twice, Hornets twice, Suns, 76ers).

The Bucks are in a good spot to win this one outright.

SGP legs

Under 250.5 points (-345): Neither team is playing elite defence right now, but this is a huge number.

Denver has gone under this number in seven of its last 10 games with the outliers being a pair of matchups against the Portland Trail Blazers and a game against the New Orleans Pelicans.

The Nuggets averaged 140.6 points in those three games. The Bucks own the ninth-best defensive rating at home, so I can’t picture that happening again.

Milwaukee, meanwhile, has gone under this mark in nine of its last 10 games with an average of 222.3 points scored.

The under is 6-4 in the last 10 meetings between these teams — and 4-0 in the last four — with only one game exceeding 240 points (and that was back in 2020).

Murray 20+ points (-177): Targeting point guards against the Bucks has been a tried and true strategy since Damian Lillard was acquired.

Check out how the team has defended the position since the 2023-24 season, with stats provided by Fantasy Pros.

2023-24: 3rd-most points to PGs (25.89)
2024-25: Most points to PGs (26.0)

Murray has played Milwaukee twice since the Lillard acquisition. He dropped 35 points in the first outing on 13-of-22 shooting (59.1%) and had just three points in the next game — but Murray had to exit early due to shin splints while only taking five shots.

Denver’s point guard is on a nice little heater this month, averaging 24.6 PPG on 54.6% shooting. He’s scored 30-plus points in three of his last six games.

Picks made at 9:55 a.m. ET on 02/27/2025.

Cognizant Classic predictions, picks and odds: Back Daniel Berger and Sepp Straka

The PGA Tour heads to Florida for the Cognizant Classic at PGA National Resort.

The latest: A field without the likes of Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy isn’t the most exciting, but it means the event is wide open to pick a winner. I’m expecting Daniel Berger, Sepp Straka and Davis Thompson to have big weeks.

Check out my Cognizant Classic predictions for the PGA Tour tournament beginning on Feb. 27

Cognizant Classic predictions predictions

Go to full Cognizant Classic predictions betting markets .

Best bet: Berger to win (+2,000)

I’ve been banging the Berger drum for a while and now it’s time to cash in.

The Floridian is coming off an up-and-down season after missing all of 2023 with a back injury but seems to be all the way back.

Berger finished T2 at the WM Phoenix Open and followed that up with a solo 12th at the Genesis Invitational.
In those events, he gained strokes in all four major categories (putting, around the green, approach, off the tee).

Berger has historically dominated at this venue with a pair of fourth-place finishes in 2020 and ’22. He missed the cut last year but was fresh off a lengthy hiatus due to injury.

At his best, Berger is an elite iron player with a strong short game. That’ll play anywhere and is especially important at this venue, where bogeys are frequently brought into play.

Key stat: Berger’s +1.40 average strokes gained at PGA National ranks 10th among players with more than one start at this tournament.

Quick picks

Straka to win (+2,200): Straka is another player I’ve been high on.

The Austrian won the American Express in January and almost came through at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am — where I had him at +5,500 to win — taking a three-shot lead into the weekend before finishing T7.

Overall, he has five top-20 finishes in his last seven starts, buoyed by great iron play.

Straka won this event in 2022 and finished T5 the following season. He is a must-bet in my book.

Thompson to win (+3,300): If Thompson hits his irons well, he’s got a good chance of winning this event.

That’s a bold declaration, but everything else is falling into place.

In this field, Thompson ranks seventh in both SG: ARG and SG: OTT over the last three months.

The putter hasn’t been a liability and he had a strong approach week in his last start (Genesis Invitational, T13). Look for him to build off of that.

Golf picks made at 1:46 p.m. on 02/25/2025.

Cognizant Classic predictions, picks and odds: Back Daniel Berger, Sepp Straka and a 40-to-1 long shot

The PGA Tour heads to Florida for the Cognizant Classic at PGA National Resort.

The latest: A field without the likes of Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy isn’t the most exciting, but it means the event is wide open to pick a winner. I’m expecting Daniel Berger, Sepp Straka and Davis Thompson to have big weeks.

Check out my Cognizant Classic predictions for the PGA Tour tournament beginning on Feb. 27

Cognizant Classic predictions predictions

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Go to full Cognizant Classic predictions betting markets .

Best bet: Berger to win (+2,200) & top-20 finish (+175)

I’ve been banging the Berger drum for a while and now it’s time to cash in.

The Floridian is coming off an up-and-down season after missing all of 2023 with a back injury but seems to be all the way back.

Berger finished T2 at the WM Phoenix Open and followed that up with a solo 12th at the Genesis Invitational.
In those events, he gained strokes in all four major categories (putting, around the green, approach, off the tee).

Berger has historically dominated at this venue with a pair of fourth-place finishes in 2020 and ’22. He missed the cut last year but was fresh off a lengthy hiatus due to injury.

At his best, Berger is an elite iron player with a strong short game. That’ll play anywhere and is especially important at this venue, where bogeys are frequently brought into play.

Key stat: Berger’s +1.40 average strokes gained at PGA National ranks 10th among players with more than one start at this tournament.

Quick picks

Straka to win (+2,200) & top-20 finish (+150): Straka is another player I’ve been high on.

The Austrian won the American Express in January and almost came through at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am — where I had him at +5,500 to win — taking a three-shot lead into the weekend before finishing T7.

Overall, he has five top-20 finishes in his last seven starts, buoyed by great iron play.

Straka won this event in 2022 and finished T5 the following season. He is a must-bet in my book.

Thompson to win (+4,000) & top-40 finish (-125): If Thompson hits his irons well, he’s got a good chance of winning this event.

That’s a bold declaration, but everything else is falling into place.

In this field, Thompson ranks seventh in both SG: ARG and SG: OTT over the last three months.

The putter hasn’t been a liability and he had a strong approach week in his last start (Genesis Invitational, T13). Look for him to build off of that.

Golf picks made at 1:46 p.m. on 02/25/2025.

Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Bruins Feb. 25: Back Auston Matthews, Matthew Knies to produce

The Toronto Maple Leafs head to their house of horrors to take on the Boston Bruins on Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: TD Garden hasn’t treated the Maple Leafs well in recent years, but Boston is struggling and Toronto is surging. Bet on Matthews Knies to record a point and take Auston Matthews to record an assist..

Check out my Maple Leafs prop picks vs. the Bruins for Feb. 25.

Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Bruins

Best bet: Knies to record a point (+100)

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Toronto’s offence exploded out of the winter break, logging six goals against the Carolina Hurricanes and five against the Chicago Blackhawks.

Knies didn’t find the stat sheet in either game but that’s bound to change sooner than later.

The 22-year-old winger was on a heater entering the 4 Nations festivities, notching points in five of his last seven games before the break. He had five goals and four assists over that stretch.

He’s riding shotgun with Matthews and Mitch Marner on the first line and is on the top power play with that duo, as well as John Tavares and William Nylander.

That puts him in a fantastic spot to produce on a nightly basis.

Knies had the best game of his career the last time he played Boston, scoring a hat trick and adding two assists in a 6-4 victory.

It’s unclear whether Jeremy Swayman or Joonas Korpisalo will start in the net but neither has impressed. Both goalies have a sub-.900 save percentage and rank outside the top 30 in goals against average.

Also: Two of Boston’s top defencemen — Charlie McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm — are out with serious injuries.

The Leafs should roll tonight and I expect Knies to be a huge factor.

Key stat: Knies has eight points in his last three games against the Bruins.

Quick picks

Matthews to record an assist (+110): The value on this bet is too good to pass up — and in an ideal world, Matthews will be feeding Knies a puck that ends up in the back of the net.

Toronto’s captain has eight assists in his last six NHL games (clearing this line five times). He also logged three assists in three 4 Nations Face-Off games.

Matthews has three assists in two games against the Bruins this year, clearing this line in both contests.

Boston is dealing with a goaltending and defensive crisis, so this is a good spot to back a sneaky-great passer at plus money.

Picks made at 2:45 p.m. ET 02/25/2025.

Best NBA prop bets Feb. 25: Back Fox and Porzingis on Tuesday night

I have two prop bet recommendations for Tuesday’s seven-game NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: Tonight’s picks are on San Antonio Spurs guard De’Aaron Fox and Boston Celtics big man Kristaps Porzingis.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Feb. 25.

Best NBA prop bets

Best bet: Fox over 24.5 points (-125)

Tonight’s San Antonio Spurs and New Orleans Pelicans matchup has the second-highest projected total of the evening.

A shade under 240 points, scoring is expected and I want a piece of the player with the highest upside.

Fox has only played eight games with the Spurs since his trade from the Sacramento Kings. Of those eight, five came alongside superstar teammate Victor Wembanyama, who’s out for the season.

The star point guard has averaged 21.4 points over his brief Spurs tenure, but this new situation hasn’t really told us much and won’t until Wembanyama is (hopefully) back on the court next season.

Here’s why I like Fox to eat tonight:

Fox has dropped 26-plus points in two of his last three games without Wembanyama.

He has taken seven attempts from deep in three straight games.

The Pelicans allow the 2nd-most threes per game and rank 23rd in opponent 3PT%.

The 6-foot-3 southpaw, who averaged 25.0 points with the Kings, should be active from long range, driving up his output.

Expect some huge games from Fox down the stretch. This looks like it will be one of them.

Key stat: New Orleans is 28th in the NBA in defensive rating.

Quick pick

Porzingis over 7.5 rebounds (-108): Centres tend to perform well against the Toronto Raptors, who may once again be without Jakob Poeltl tonight.

Poeltl is questionable as of Tuesday afternoon and has been out since early February. Even if he does play, he’ll likely have his minutes capped.

He’s the best rebounder (by far) on the Raptors, who allow the eighth-most rebounds to centres, according to Betting Pros.

Porzingis has hit this at a below-50% rate this season, but one of those times came against Toronto in January.

And he’s gotten to seven rebounds in 65% of his games, so he’s often living around this number.

Picks made at 12:57 p.m. ET on 02/25/2025.

Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Bruins Feb. 25: Back Auston Matthews, David Pastrnak to produce

The Toronto Maple Leafs head to their house of horrors to take on the Boston Bruins on Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: TD Garden hasn’t treated the Maple Leafs well in recent years, but Boston is struggling and Toronto is surging. Bet on Matthews Knies to record a point and take Auston Matthews and David Pastrnak to do the same in a parlay.