This week’s all-star festivities begin Monday night with the MLB Home Run Derby at Truist Park.
The pre-derby narrative: Cal Raleigh is on a historic pace as a home run hitter, and he’ll put that power on display in Atlanta. He’s the co-favourite, alongside Oneil Cruz, in the eight-player derby field.
Check out our MLB Home Run Derby odds for the all-star event on Monday, July 14.
MLB Home Run Derby odds
Click on linked odds below to bet now. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.
| Player | Odds |
| Cal Raleigh | +300 |
| Oneil Cruz | +315 |
| James Wood | +375 |
| Matt Olson | +700 |
| Byron Buxton | +800 |
| Brent Rooker | +900 |
| Junior Caminero | +1,100 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | +1,200 |
MLB odds as of 3:10 p.m. ET on 07/14/25.
Best MLB Home Run Derby odds
The co-favourites: Raleigh, Cruz (+300)
Catchers aren’t supposed to mash the way Raleigh does.
Raleigh is subverting the belief that catching is a defence-first position by putting up some insane power numbers this season.
His 38 HRs are the most in the majors, and the most ever for a catcher before the all-star break. He’s also on a 64-homer pace for the season, which would set a new American League record.
With all that in mind, it makes sense for Raleigh to be a co-favourite at the derby.
Then again, claiming the derby title would be a historic feat, too: No catcher or switch-hitter has ever won this event.
Cruz has 16 home runs, which is tied for 40th in MLB. But don’t let that fool you.
Pittsburgh’s converted outfielder (formerly a shortstop) is arguably the hardest hitter in the entire league.
- 1st in average exit velocity (96.4 mph)
- 2nd in barrel rate (22.3%)
- 3rd in hard-hit rate (58.0%)
Cruz has a ton of swing-and-miss in his game, but that shouldn’t be a concern with a batting practice pitcher. He can send the ball to the moon, especially when it’s grooved over the plate.
HR Derby notes
- One more way to illustrate Cruz’s power is the fact that he has +165 odds to hit the longest home run. Everyone else in the field has odds of +400 or longer.
- James Wood (+450) has generated some buzz to win the derby after a viral video circulated of a recent batting practice session. Truist Park is the seventh-most favourable HR park for left-hitting players, per Baseball Savant, which works in Wood’s favour.
- The hometown crowd will be behind Braves slugger Matt Olson (+500), who’s replacing teammate Ronald Acuna Jr. in this event. Olson bashed an MLB-high 54 home runs in 2023, so the upside is there. He ranks in the 95th percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate.
- Half of the field has odds of 10-to-1 or longer, and the most interesting of that bunch might be Georgia native Byron Buxton (+1,100). He has 21 homers on the season, including 10 in his past 23 games. An intriguing way to back Buxton might be to pick him to hit the longest HR (+550), given that his 479-foot blast in June is the longest of anyone in the field.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.