The Seattle Seahawks host the San Francisco 49ers for an NFC West showdown on Thursday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: A win for the 49ers would put them atop the division, temporarily, at least. I expect Deebo Samuel to have a big game for San Francisco and am targeting Seattle’s backup running back Zach Charbonnet.
Check out my 49ers vs. Seahawks prop picks for Thursday Night Football on Oct. 10.
49ers vs. Seahawks prop picks
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Best Bet: Samuel over 71.5 rushing and receiving yards (-114)
Samuel had a full-blown cardio game in Week 5.
He logged just 20 scrimmage yards on one catch and three rushing attempts despite playing in 81% of snaps. It was his lowest output since Week 6 of the 2023 season and he left that game early with an injury.
But I’m fine to buy low on Deebo, especially against the Seahawks.
Seattle’s defence has taken a big step forward with Mike Macdonald at the helm but this is a matchup the receiver has dominated.
Samuel had 150 and 94 scrimmage yards in his two games against the Seahawks last year. Before that, he dropped 164 scrimmage yards against them in the 2023 NFC wild-card game. And before that, he had 97 scrimmage yards against them in his lone meeting of the 2022 regular season.
Kyle Shanahan clearly knows how to use Samuel against this group and without Christian McCaffrey in the mix he’ll need the receivers’ dynamic skillset.
Samuel has blown by this line in four straight games against Seattle and I say he does it again.
Key stat: Samuel is 3-1 against this line this season.
Quick picks
Charbonnet over 30.5 rushing and receiving yards (-117): This line feels like a steal.
Charbonnet fell under this mark in Week 5 but blew by it in every game before. He’s averaging 60.2 scrimmage yards per game and is an above-average rusher and a solid pass catcher.
The second-year back has turned 18 receptions into 134 yards and is toting the ball at an impressive 4.30 yards per carry over the past four weeks.
Kenneth Walker III has impressed this season but he’s also missed two games with an injury. On a short week, it would be foolish to overwork the back when Charbonnet is perfectly capable of picking up the slack here and there.
San Francisco is a pedestrian 20th in defensive EPA per rush, per RBSDM.com, and has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game to running backs.
Picks made at 2:21 p.m. ET 10/09/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.