{"id":393372,"date":"2026-01-23T13:49:07","date_gmt":"2026-01-23T18:49:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=393372"},"modified":"2026-01-23T13:49:07","modified_gmt":"2026-01-23T18:49:07","slug":"patriots-vs-broncos-afc-championship-sgp-picks-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/patriots-vs-broncos-afc-championship-sgp-picks-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Patriots vs. Broncos AFC championship SGP picks: Playoff predictions on Drake Maye, Marvin Mims"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The AFC champion will be crowned at Mile High Stadium on Sunday, and it&#8217;s looking like the New England Patriots will be back in the Super Bowl.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Drake Maye put up MVP numbers in his sophomore season and won&#8217;t have to duel fellow 2024 first-round draftee Bo Nix, who broke his ankle late in the divisional round. As a result, the Broncos are 4.5-point home underdogs, tied for the largest in conference championship game history.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"us_only\"><a href=\"cacheembed:122861\">Embed: #122861<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my Patriots vs. Broncos picks, featuring prop bets on Maye and Marvin Mims. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"acq_only\"><strong>-&gt; <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNjY1NzMyJnA9MzExMjU%3D\">Join NorthStar Bets to start betting on the NFL<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading acq_only\">Patriots vs. Broncos picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>SGP: Patriots moneyline | Maye 30+ rushing yards | <strong><strong><strong><strong>Mims 3+ receptions<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong> (+320)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong>Patriots moneyline<\/strong><\/strong> <strong>(-235):<\/strong> Is it &#8220;fair&#8221; that New England is on the doorstep of another Super Bowl appearance with Tom Brady&#8217;s tenure not so far in the rearview? <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Depends who you ask. I&#8217;m of the camp that it&#8217;s a little annoying, especially given that the Patriots get to face career-long backup Jarrett Stidham in the AFC championship.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"acq_only\"><strong>-&gt; <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNjY1NzMyJnA9MzExMjU%3D\">Bet on the AFC Championship game<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But Stidham or not, I have to give the Patriots their flowers:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>New England is 15-1 since Week 4 with nine multi-score victories and a +203 point differential. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Pats are 9-3-1 ATS as a favourite, winning those games by an average of 14.5 points.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Maye led the NFL in completion percentage (72.0%), passer rating (113.5), and rushing + passing yards per game (284.9). <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Bottom line, this Patriots team is <em>very <\/em>good. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Denver did go 14-3 in the regular season, but it only had four multi-score wins. Walking the tight rope with Nix is one thing. Walking it with Stidham, who hasn&#8217;t attempted a pass since 2023, is another.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"us_only\"><a href=\"cacheembed:122935\">Embed: #122935<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Patriots vs. Broncos prop prediction<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>Maye 30+ rushing yard<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>s (-121):<\/strong> Maye hasn&#8217;t been at his best this postseason, but he has faced two fierce defences (Chargers, Texans) and came out on top.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Denver is also elite, ranking top five in pass block win rate and run block win rate, per ESPN.com. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nothing will come easy against the Broncos on the road, and I suspect Maye will have to use his legs to extend plays and rack up some yards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"acq_only\"><strong>-&gt; <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNjY1NzMyJnA9MzExMjU%3D\">Go to full NFL player prop markets<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He isn&#8217;t quite as big as Josh Allen, but he&#8217;s pretty darn close at 6-foot-4, 225 pounds. Allen rushed for 66 yards against Denver last week, and I trust Maye to get less than half of that this time around.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>During the regular season and playoffs, Maye averaged 27.5 rushing yards per game. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"us_only\"><a href=\"cacheembed:122861\">Embed: #122861<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">AFC Championship SGP pick<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong><strong><strong>Mims 3+ receptions<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong> (-132):<\/strong> If Denver is playing from behind, as I suspect, Stidham will have to throw the ball a lot more than Sean Payton would like.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mims seems like a logical choice to rack up receptions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The speedy wideout has a shallow average depth of target at 9.2 yards (34th percentile, per Rotowire).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Payton will want to get the ball out of Stidham&#8217;s hands quickly, and Mims&#8217; YAC abilities could make him a big part of the game plan.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Patriots have allowed an 81.9 passer rating to opposing QBs, which ranks in the 19th percentile, according to RotoWire.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Additionally, Troy Franklin, who caught 65 passes for 709 yards this year, is questionable after suffering an ankle injury against Buffalo. Franklin has been a limited participant at practice all week and caught zero passes in Week 18 despite playing the whole game. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mims caught all eight of his targets last week in Franklin&#8217;s absence. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"us_only\"><a href=\"cacheembed:122861\">Embed: #122861<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Patriots vs. Broncos picks made at 1 p.m. on Jan. 23, 2025. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"acq_only\"><strong>-&gt; <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNjY1NzMyJnA9MzExMjU%3D\">Sign up to NorthStar Bets today<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The AFC champion will be crowned at Mile High Stadium on Sunday, and it&#8217;s looking like the New England Patriots will be back in the Super Bowl. The pregame narrative: Drake Maye put up MVP numbers in his sophomore season and won&#8217;t have to duel fellow 2024 first-round draftee Bo Nix, who broke his ankle [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":393394,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[61],"tags":[181],"class_list":["post-393372","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nfl","tag-nfl"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Patriots vs. Broncos picks: 2026 AFC Championship | The Boost<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Patriots vs. Broncos picks for the 2026 AFC Championship game. 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