{"id":393223,"date":"2026-01-22T15:26:00","date_gmt":"2026-01-22T20:26:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=393223"},"modified":"2026-01-22T15:26:01","modified_gmt":"2026-01-22T20:26:01","slug":"nfl-picks-against-the-spread-conference-championship-ats-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/nfl-picks-against-the-spread-conference-championship-ats-predictions\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL conference championship ATS predictions:  Picks against the spread for AFC, NFC title games"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Two teams are securing their spots in the Super Bowl on Sunday, while two others are going home.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>NFL conference championship narrative:<\/strong> The New England Patriots find themselves in ultra-rare territory as road favourites in a conference championship game. In the NFC, the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams square up in an NFC West grudge match at Lumen Field.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"us_only\"><a href=\"cacheembed:122861\">Embed: #122861<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out our staff&#8217;s NFL picks against the spread for the conference championship round.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"acq_only\"><strong>-&gt; <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNjY1NzMyJnA9MzExMjU%3D\">Join NorthStar Bets and start betting on the NFL<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">NFL picks against the spread<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>NorthStar Bets&#8217; Avery Perri, Jordan Horrobin and Chris Toman offer up their NFL picks against the spread for both playoff games during conference championship Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>NFL odds as of 1:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, Jan. 22, 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">AFC championship ATS predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Patriots vs. Broncos (Sunday, Jan. 25: 3:00 p.m. ET)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong>NorthStar Bets line:<\/strong><\/strong> New England -4.5<br><strong>Horrobin says:<\/strong> Jarrett Stidham is in his third year holding a clipboard on Denver&#8217;s bench. I&#8217;m sure he knows Sean Payton&#8217;s system well, and I don&#8217;t expect the 29-year-old to look like a rookie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But I also don&#8217;t expect him to be very good, given that Sunday marks his first meaningful NFL action since the 2023 season. And he&#8217;s up against a New England team that&#8217;s in runaway-freight-train mode.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"acq_only\"><strong>-&gt; <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNjY1NzMyJnA9MzExMjU%3D\">Bet on the AFC championship game at NorthStar Bets<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Patriots are 15-1 in their past 16 games, and they&#8217;ve covered this number in 12 of those.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Both defences rank in the top five in scoring and top 10 in yards, so the key comparison is on offence. There&#8217;s an ocean of difference between Drake Maye, an NFL MVP finalist, and Stidham, a career backup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"us_only\"><a href=\"cacheembed:122861\">Embed: #122861<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Perri says:<\/strong> I have to agree with Jordan \u2014 getting New England at -4.5 seems too good to be true.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Maye hasn&#8217;t played to his ceiling this postseason, taking 10 sacks and throwing an interception in each game. Still, New England came away with a pair of dominant wins and covers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If Maye can get settled in, there&#8217;s a good chance this will be a wire-to-wire blowout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Broncos struggled to beat anybody by margin this year, picking up just four two-score victories. Without Nix, I think Denver&#8217;s best-case scenario is a close game heading into the fourth quarter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>From there, it&#8217;s a QB battle. Give me the second-team All-Pro over the guy who hasn&#8217;t attempted a pass since 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Staff picks<\/strong>: Perri (NE) | Horrobin (NE) | Toman (NE)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"acq_only\"><strong>-&gt; <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNjY1NzMyJnA9MzExMjU%3D\">See all Drake Maye props for the AFC title game<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">NFC championship ATS predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Rams vs. Seahawks (Sunday, Jan. 25: 6:30 p.m. ET)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong>NorthStar Bets line:<\/strong><\/strong> Seattle -2.5<br><strong>Horrobin says:<\/strong> During the regular season, the Seahawks and Rams both won the home end of their head-to-head series. The games were decided by a combined three points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It would surprise no one if this game also came right down to the wire, but I think the Seahawks are well-positioned to cover.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Seattle is 11-4-0 ATS as a favourite this season, according to Team Rankings.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Seahawks posted the NFL&#8217;s best point differential in the regular season (+191). They&#8217;ve also covered a -2.5 spread in 13 of 18 games.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Rams were on the road \u2014 in the eastern and central time zones \u2014 in the first two playoff rounds. Meanwhile, the Seahawks were at home for a bye and a 35-point drubbing of the 49ers.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"us_only\"><a href=\"cacheembed:122861\">Embed: #122861<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"acq_only\"><strong>-&gt; <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNjY1NzMyJnA9MzExMjU%3D\">Full Rams vs. Seahawks betting markets. Bet now!<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After playing last Saturday, the Seahawks have one extra day of rest&#8230; as if they needed another edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Perri says:<\/strong> I think the road underdogs can keep this close.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Rams haven&#8217;t lost by more than three points since Week 3, scoring an atomic 31.2 PPG from then onward. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>L.A. can keep pace with anybody with Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams and Matthew Stafford running the show.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But, for me, this comes down to Sam Darnold and Chris Shula. The Rams&#8217; defensive coordinator has repeatedly given Darnold fits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"acq_only\"><strong>-&gt; <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNjY1NzMyJnA9MzExMjU%3D\">Bet on the NFC title game: Props, SGPs &amp; more!<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>2025 wild-card (as member of Vikings):<\/strong> 25-for-40, 1 TD, 1 INT, 9 sacks, 77.6 QBR<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>2025-26 Week 11:<\/strong> 29-for-44, 0 TD, 4 INT, 0 sacks, 45.5 QBR<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>2025-26 Week 16:<\/strong> 22-for-34, 2 TD, 2 INT, 4 sacks, 84.2 QBR<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>We&#8217;ve never seen Darnold in a moment this big, and Stafford has already won it all. I&#8217;ll side with the veteran and likely MVP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Staff picks<\/strong>: Perri (LAR) | Horrobin (SEA) | Toman (LAR)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>NFL picks against the spread records: Regular season + playoffs<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Toman<\/strong>: 134-130-8 (3-5-0)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Perri<\/strong>: 133-131-8 (2-6-0)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Horrobin<\/strong>: 123-141-8 (5-3-0)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"us_only\"><a href=\"cacheembed:122861\">Embed: #122861<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"acq_only\"><strong>-&gt; <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNjY1NzMyJnA9MzExMjU%3D\">Sign up to NorthStar Bets today<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Two teams are securing their spots in the Super Bowl on Sunday, while two others are going home. NFL conference championship narrative: The New England Patriots find themselves in ultra-rare territory as road favourites in a conference championship game. In the NFC, the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams square up in an NFC West [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":393249,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[61],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-393223","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nfl"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>NFL picks against the spread: ATS predictions for AFC, NFC titles<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our NFL picks against the spread for the 2026 conference championship games. 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