{"id":392602,"date":"2026-01-16T13:17:12","date_gmt":"2026-01-16T18:17:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=392602"},"modified":"2026-01-18T12:37:59","modified_gmt":"2026-01-18T17:37:59","slug":"texans-vs-patriots-divisional-round-sgp-picks-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/texans-vs-patriots-divisional-round-sgp-picks-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Texans vs. Patriots divisional round SGP picks: Bet on Drake Maye, Woody Marks at +360"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The Houston Texans and New England Patriots battle for a spot in the AFC Championship game on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> This figures to be a defensive battle, with the lowest over\/under (40.5) on the divisional round slate. New England is a 3-point home favourite as expectant MVP finalist Drake Maye is tasked with beating the league&#8217;s No. 1 scoring defence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"us_only\"><a href=\"cacheembed:122861\">Embed: #122861<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my Texans vs. Patriots picks, featuring predictions on Maye and Woody Marks. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"acq_only\"><strong>-&gt; <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNjY1NzMyJnA9MzExMjU%3D\">Join NorthStar Bets to start betting on the NFL<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading acq_only\">Texans vs. Patriots picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>SGP: Patriots +5.5 | Maye 250+ passing and rushing yards | Marks 40+ rushing yards | Under 49.5 points (+360)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong><strong>Patriots +5.5<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong> <strong>(-375):<\/strong>  I expect the Patriots to win this game, but will buy a boatload of points teasing them through to a field goal-plus underdog.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>C.J. Stroud did everything in his power to lose last week&#8217;s wild-card game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, throwing an interception and losing two fumbles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Texans&#8217; elite defence bailed him out, but I don&#8217;t trust the Ohio State product in the slightest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Stroud is 7-8 in outdoor road games, with an 83.9 passer rating. For context, that 83.9 rating would rank 36th among QBs with five-plus starts this year, right between Geno Smith and Dillon Gabriel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"acq_only\"><strong>-&gt; <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNjY1NzMyJnA9MzExMjU%3D\">Bet on the NFL divisional round<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>New England has covered this mark in 15 straight games since Week 4, going 14-1 straight up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"us_only\"><a href=\"cacheembed:122823\">Embed: #122823<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Texans vs. Patriots prop predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>Maye 250+ passing and rushing yards<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong> (-139):<\/strong> Maye was named second-team All-Pro last week, indicating he might finish runner-up to Matthew Stafford in MVP voting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Is that fair? Take a look at Maye&#8217;s stats and judge for yourself: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>1st in completion percentage (72.0%)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>1st in passer rating (113.5)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>1st in completion percentage above expected (+10.8)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>1st in rushing + passing yards per game (284.9) <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"acq_only\"><strong>-&gt; <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNjY1NzMyJnA9MzExMjU%3D\">Go to full NFL player prop markets<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Stafford had more passing yards and passing touchdowns, but Maye made up for that by using his legs like Josh Allen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The signal caller is 15-3 against this line and had north of 300 total yards against the Chargers last week. Houston&#8217;s defence is elite, but L.A.&#8217;s isn&#8217;t far off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I expect Maye to rise to the occasion. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Marks 40+ rushing yards (-335):<\/strong> Marks had a career game last week, totalling 112 yards and a score on 19 carries against the Steelers. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The rookie has now reached this milestone in eight of his last nine games. The outlier was a seven-carry, 30-yard outing against the Arizona Cardinals, where he left in the first half with an injury.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"us_only\"><a href=\"cacheembed:122861\">Embed: #122861<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Marks is a fan of the medical tent, so injury risk could be a factor on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But I&#8217;m not going to play hypotheticals. Marks looked great last week and should have no problem reaching this teased-down milestone. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">SGP prediction: NFL ATS pick<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong><strong><strong>Under 49.5 points<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong> (-360):<\/strong> Finally, I&#8217;m teasing up the under big time to raise this SGP from +200 to +360.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As mentioned, I don&#8217;t expect the Texans to do much offensively. Stroud has been a consistent negative on the road, and Houston needed multiple defensive scores to crack 30 points last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The under on this total is 8-1 in games the Texans have played against playoff teams this year (including last week&#8217;s game vs. Pittsburgh). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The only outlier was a matchup at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Outdoors, on the road, Houston will try to turn this matchup into a rock fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Texans vs. Patriots picks made at 12 p.m. on Jan. 16, 2025. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"acq_only\"><strong>-&gt; <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNjY1NzMyJnA9MzExMjU%3D\">Sign up to NorthStar Bets today<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Houston Texans and New England Patriots battle for a spot in the AFC Championship game on Sunday. The pregame narrative: This figures to be a defensive battle, with the lowest over\/under (40.5) on the divisional round slate. New England is a 3-point home favourite as expectant MVP finalist Drake Maye is tasked with beating [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":392617,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[61],"tags":[181],"class_list":["post-392602","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nfl","tag-nfl"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Texans vs. Patriots picks: 2026 NFL divisional SGP | The Boost<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Texans vs. Patriots picks for the 2026 divisional round. 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