{"id":391175,"date":"2026-01-06T15:35:53","date_gmt":"2026-01-06T20:35:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=391175"},"modified":"2026-01-06T15:35:53","modified_gmt":"2026-01-06T20:35:53","slug":"nfl-wild-card-round-best-bets-2026-playoffs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/nfl-wild-card-round-best-bets-2026-playoffs\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL wild-card round best bets: Back Josh Allen on the ground, underdog Steelers to upset Texans"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Super wild-card weekend has arrived, with six electric games on the slate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>NFL wild-card weekend narrative:<\/strong> All but one matchup features a spread inside five points, putting upsets in play across the board. Our staff&#8217;s top moneyline bet is on the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are underdogs at home to the Houston Texans. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out our NFL wild-card best bets for the first round of the playoffs, featuring a prop bet on Josh Allen against the Jacksonville Jaguars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"acq_only\"><strong>-&gt; <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNjY1NzMyJnA9MzExMjU%3D\">Join NorthStar Bets to start betting on the NFL<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">NFL wild-card best bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><em>NFL wild-card best bets were written by NorthStar Bets writers Avery Perri and Chris Toman.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Allen over 36.5 rushing yards (-112)<\/strong>: The Jaguars allowed the fewest rushing yards per game and tied for the second-fewest yards per attempt. They&#8217;ve smothered the run and much of their competition, closing out the season on an eight-game winning streak.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But Allen is among the best&nbsp;runners at his position and has frequently demonstrated that when the stakes are highest.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Buffalo Bills star has topped this total in four of his last five playoff games, shattering this number several times.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Allen, who cleared this line in 50% of his regular-season games, could be forced to use his legs more if James Cook struggles to gain yardage vs. the Jags&#8217; strong run defence.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"acq_only\"><strong>-> <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNjY1NzMyJnA9MzExMjU%3D\"><strong>Visit NorthStar Bets for full NFL playoff markets<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No team was thrown on more than the Jags, but Allen wasn&#8217;t a volume thrower this season, so I don&#8217;t think it&#8217;s right to assume the Bills will attempt to win this game through the air.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That&#8217;s not their style. Buffalo likes to run the ball and Allen can reel off big plays on the ground due to his strength&nbsp;and quickness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But defences must also respect Allen&#8217;s game-changing arm, which can create opportunities for him to scramble. Jacksonville didn&#8217;t face many running threats at the QB position, so Allen should present an interesting test to this group.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A tough road playoff game is the perfect&nbsp;spot for the reigning MVP to showcase his full package.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>-Toman<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">NFL wild-card weekend prop bet<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Davante Adams anytime TD (-125):<\/strong> Adams is expected to return for the Rams on Saturday, which is a big shot in the arm for L.A.&#8217;s red zone offence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The veteran was a menace inside the 10-yard line this year, leading all wideouts in the following categories:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Targets (23)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Catches (11)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Touchdowns (11)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>That&#8217;s pretty remarkable, considering he only played 14 games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"acq_only\"><strong>-> <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNjY1NzMyJnA9MzExMjU%3D\">Bet on NFL wild-card weekend touchdown scorers<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Adams had a strong outing against the Carolina Panthers in Week 13, hauling in two touchdowns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He should be Matthew Stafford&#8217;s choice target again, with Carolina&#8217;s standout corner Jaycee Horn likely shadowing Puka Nacua all game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>-Perri<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">NFL wild-card upset pick: Bet on Steelers to win<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steelers moneyline (+155):<\/strong> The Texans enter the postseason on a 10-game winning streak and own the conference&#8217;s best scoring defence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It shouldn&#8217;t come as a surprise that DeMeco Ryans&#8217; squad is a 3.5-point favourite against Pittsburgh, which had the worst point differential among AFC playoff teams (+10) and punched its ticket on the final day of the regular season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Still, I think there&#8217;s value to be had on the home side.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Houston&#8217;s defence is elite, but Pittsburgh&#8217;s has rounded into form as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Steelers are 4-1 in their last five games, allowing 19.6 PPG. That includes victories over the Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens (twice).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"acq_only\"><strong>-> <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNjY1NzMyJnA9MzExMjU%3D\">See moneyline odds for all NFL playoff games<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In that span (Week 14 onward), the Texans rank eighth in defensive EPA per play, and the Steelers rank 14th. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Not a huge gap, considering Pittsburgh was also missing T.J. Watt for three of those games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Call me crazy, but I trust Aaron Rodgers&#8217; offence more in this matchup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>C.J. Stroud hasn&#8217;t impressed me this year and has struggled on the road against good teams. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Texans have played four playoff teams on the road, going 1-3. Stroud had four TDs and six INTs in those games.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Stroud&#8217;s career road splits (214 passing yards\/game, 85.5 passer rating) are much worse than his home splits (258.9 passing yards\/game, 101.2 passer rating).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>With DK Metcalf back, I expect Rodgers to thrive in the cold weather as he did for a decade-plus in Green Bay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>-Perri<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:122622\">Embed: #122622<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">NFL playoff over\/under prediction<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Packers\/Bears under 46.5 points (-117): <\/strong>The Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears meet for a third time this season, which should give each team&#8217;s defensive coordinator ample tape to grind.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On top of that, both teams love to run the rock, with Green Bay (48.71%) and Chicago (45.60%) ranking fifth and ninth, respectively, in run play percentage (per Team Rankings).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"acq_only\"><strong>-&gt; <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNjY1NzMyJnA9MzExMjU%3D\">Don&#8217;t miss out \u2014 bet on wild-card weekend now<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I wouldn&#8217;t be surprised to see that tick well north of 50% if the Windy City holds up to its name.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the time of writing, the weather forecast in Chicago on Saturday night is ugly: Negative temperatures, snow, and 31 km\/h sustained winds with 45 km\/h gusts. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jordan Love hasn&#8217;t played in three weeks with a concussion, so I expect him to be rusty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the other side, Caleb Williams has struggled against Green Bay&#8217;s secondary. He posted a 55.1 completion percentage and an 87.6 passer rating in two games this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The under on this total is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these rivals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>-Perri<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"acq_only\"><strong>-> <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNjY1NzMyJnA9MzExMjU%3D\">Sign up to NorthStar Bets today<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Super wild-card weekend has arrived, with six electric games on the slate. NFL wild-card weekend narrative: All but one matchup features a spread inside five points, putting upsets in play across the board. Our staff&#8217;s top moneyline bet is on the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are underdogs at home to the Houston Texans. Check out our [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":391233,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[61],"tags":[181,232],"class_list":["post-391175","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nfl","tag-nfl","tag-nfl-picks"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>NFL wild-card best bets 2026: Staff picks &amp; predictions | The Boost<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our 2026 NFL wild-card best bets. 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