{"id":383811,"date":"2025-11-25T16:27:58","date_gmt":"2025-11-25T21:27:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=383811"},"modified":"2025-11-25T16:27:59","modified_gmt":"2025-11-25T21:27:59","slug":"chiefs-vs-cowboys-week-13-sgp-predictions-thanksgiving-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/chiefs-vs-cowboys-week-13-sgp-predictions-thanksgiving-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Chiefs vs. Cowboys Week 13 SGP predictions: Back Mahomes and Lamb on Thanksgiving Day"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The Dallas Cowboys and Kansas City Chiefs meet for a high-stakes Thanksgiving clash in Arlington on Nov. 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative: <\/strong>This game is worth fighting off the tryptophan for. Dallas (5-5-1) and Kansas City (6-4) currently sit outside the playoff picture. A win would keep each team in the hunt, while a loss would be devastating. The Chiefs are 3.5-point favourites in Week 13 despite their poor road record.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my Chiefs vs. Cowboys predictions, featuring prop picks on Patrick Mahomes and CeeDee Lamb as part of a +310 same-game parlay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"acq_only\"><strong>-&gt; <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNjY1NzMyJnA9MzExMjU%3D\">Join NorthStar Bets to start betting on the NFL<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading acq_only\">Chiefs vs. Cowboys predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>SGP: Cowboys +7.5 | Mahomes 20+ rushing yards | Lamb 70+ receiving yards (+310)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong>Cowboys +7.5<\/strong> (-250):<\/strong> I think the Cowboys are live to win this game, and picked them as my top upset prediction for Week 13. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Why? Let me give you the Coles Notes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Elite offence:<\/strong> The Cowboys&#8217; offence ranks first in yards (387.3 YPG), second in scoring (29.1 PPG) and fifth in EPA per play, per RBSDM.com.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Key defensive additions:<\/strong> Dallas added five players \u2014 ILB Logan Wilson, DT Quinnen Williams, ILB DeMarvion Overshown, SS Donovan Wilson, CB Shavon Revel \u2014 following its Week 9 bye. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Two of those defenders (Wilson, Williams) were acquired by trade, and the other three returned from injuries. It&#8217;s a small two-game sample, but Dallas&#8217; defence is 11th in EPA per play since Week 10 while allowing 18.5 PPG. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I expect the offence to put up points, and think the defence can hold Patrick Mahome and Co. in check.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Chiefs are 1-4 on the road this year, averaging 22.2 PPG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"acq_only\"><strong>-&gt; <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNjY1NzMyJnA9MzExMjU%3D\">Bet on the Thanksgiving Day tripleheader<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"product_only\"><a href=\"cacheembed:121579\">Embed: #121579<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Thanksgiving Day SGP picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Mahomes 20+ rushing yards (-136):<\/strong> Dallas&#8217; defence has bottled up two elite running backs since its bye, holding Ashton Jeanty and Saquon Barkley to 29 combined yards on 16 carries (1.8 YPA).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kansas City&#8217;s biggest weakness, unquestionably, is its running game. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Isiah Pacheco is expected to return, but he&#8217;s failed to top 60 rushing yards in 16 straight starts. And Kareem Hunt, while reliable at the goal line, is a shell of his former self.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I can&#8217;t picture the Chiefs getting the ground game going, but I can envision Mahomes extending a few plays on his own.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The QB is 7-4 against this milestone and is averaging 28.9 rushing yards per game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dallas is allowing opposing QBs to rush for 24.6 yards per game. That&#8217;s the third-highest mark in the NFL, per Football Reference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Lamb 70+ receiving yards (-157):<\/strong> Lastly, I&#8217;m taking the over on Lamb&#8217;s receiving total.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>George Pickens is coming off a monster two-game stretch, totalling 18 catches for 290 yards and two touchdowns. But Lamb had 18 targets of his own in those games, logging nine catches for 141 yards and a TD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Don&#8217;t fool yourself into thinking Pickens is the clear-cut No. 1 just yet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Look at what Lamb has done in seven games so far, excluding Week 3 vs. the Chicago Bears, where he left with an ankle injury:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>90.3 yards\/game<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>6.2 catches\/game<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>10.2 targets\/game<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>6-1 vs. this line<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Pickens has impressed, but I think the pendulum has swung too far. I&#8217;ll happily back Lamb to reach this milestone at a playable standalone price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Chiefs vs. Cowboys<\/em> <em>predictions made at 4:10 p.m. on Nov. 25, 2025. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"acq_only\"><strong>-&gt; <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNjY1NzMyJnA9MzExMjU%3D\">Sign up to NorthStar Bets today<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Dallas Cowboys and Kansas City Chiefs meet for a high-stakes Thanksgiving clash in Arlington on Nov. 27. The pregame narrative: This game is worth fighting off the tryptophan for. Dallas (5-5-1) and Kansas City (6-4) currently sit outside the playoff picture. A win would keep each team in the hunt, while a loss would [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":383885,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[61],"tags":[181],"class_list":["post-383811","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nfl","tag-nfl"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Chiefs vs. Cowboys predictions: Thanksgiving SGP | The Boost<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our 2025 Week 13 Chiefs vs. Cowboys SGP predictions. 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