{"id":382537,"date":"2025-11-19T11:52:26","date_gmt":"2025-11-19T16:52:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=382537"},"modified":"2025-11-19T11:52:27","modified_gmt":"2025-11-19T16:52:27","slug":"bills-vs-texans-week-12-tnf-sgp-predictions-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/bills-vs-texans-week-12-tnf-sgp-predictions-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Bills vs. Texans TNF Week 12 SGP predictions: Fade Josh Allen against Houston&#8217;s top-ranked defence"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills kick off NFL Week 12 action with a Thursday Night Football date in Houston.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> The Texans, who likely won&#8217;t have C.J. Stroud available, are 6-point home underdogs against the Bills. Buffalo has lost two of four games this year as a road favourite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my Bills vs. Texans SGP predictions for Nov. 20, featuring Allen and Woody Marks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"acq_only\"><strong>-&gt; <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNjY1NzMyJnA9MzExMjU%3D\">Join NorthStar Bets to start betting on the NFL<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bills vs. Texans predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>SGP: Allen under 223.5 pass yards | Marks 60+ rush yards | Under 47.5 points (+320)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong>Allen under 223.5 passing yards <\/strong>(-114):<\/strong> Coming off Allen&#8217;s epic performance last week, I get that it might be difficult to sell anyone on taking an under with him. But let&#8217;s show some respect to the Texans&#8217; defence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Houston ranks No. 1 in yards and points allowed this season.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Texans have allowed the third-fewest passing yards and are tied for the third-most interceptions (10 in 10 games).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>According to RBSDM.com, Houston&#8217;s pass defence ranks No. 1 in EPA per dropback and No. 2 in success rate. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"acq_only\"><strong>-&gt; <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNjY1NzMyJnA9MzExMjU%3D\">Bet on Buffalo vs. Houston on TNF<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yes, Allen had six total TDs last week and has now thrown for 300 yards in back-to-back games. But now he&#8217;s facing the toughest defence in the league \u2014 and on the road, no less.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Allen has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in three of four road games this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"product_only\"><a href=\"cacheembed:121237\">Embed: #121237<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Thursday Night Football SGP picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong>Marks 60+ rushing yards<\/strong> (-134):<\/strong> Marks squandered a juicy matchup last week against the Tennessee Titans, but he&#8217;s got an even juicier matchup on Thursday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Bills&#8217; run defence is among the very worst in the NFL:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>32nd in rushing TDs (17)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>31st in yards per game (153.0)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>31st in yards per rush (5.4)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>30th in EPA per rush<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"acq_only\"><strong>-&gt; <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNjY1NzMyJnA9MzExMjU%3D\">Build your own SGP featuring Allen and Marks here<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Do I love that Marks only produced 44 rushing yards last week on 18 carries? No, but I am encouraged by that workload, which was a season-high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, Texans backup Nick Chubb had a season-low three rush attempts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Marks now has 32 carries in the two games started by Davis Mills, who&#8217;s expected to be under centre again Thursday. If Marks is back in that 15-carry range, he should cash this bet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Under 47.5 points<b> (-186):<\/b><\/strong> The venue for Thursday&#8217;s game matters, as the Bills haven&#8217;t been nearly as potent on the road.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out their home\/road splits so far:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Home (six games):<\/strong> 32.5 PPG, 399.0 yards\/game <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Road (four games):<\/strong> 24.3 PPG, 370.0 yards\/game<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Another way to illustrate the chasm is through Josh Allen&#8217;s passer rating, which is 115.9 at home and 88.3 on the road.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"acq_only\"><strong>-&gt; <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNjY1NzMyJnA9MzExMjU%3D\"><strong>Visit NorthStar Bets for all NFL Week 12 betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Remember, the Texans&#8217; defence is No. 1 in the NFL in both points and yards allowed. And the fact that this game is in Houston means points should be at an even greater premium for the Bills.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unders are 3-1-1 in Houston&#8217;s home games this year. The average total in those matchups has been 40.8 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Bills vs. Texans predictions made at 11:25 a.m. ET 11\/19\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"acq_only\"><strong>-&gt; <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNjY1NzMyJnA9MzExMjU%3D\">Sign up to NorthStar Bets today<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills kick off NFL Week 12 action with a Thursday Night Football date in Houston. The pregame narrative: The Texans, who likely won&#8217;t have C.J. Stroud available, are 6-point home underdogs against the Bills. Buffalo has lost two of four games this year as a road favourite. Check out my [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":382654,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[61],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-382537","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nfl"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bills vs. Texans predictions: 2025 Week 12 TNF SGP | The Boost<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our 2025 Week 12 Bills vs. Texans SGP predictions. 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