{"id":382168,"date":"2025-11-17T16:20:57","date_gmt":"2025-11-17T21:20:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=382168"},"modified":"2025-11-17T16:21:28","modified_gmt":"2025-11-17T21:21:28","slug":"cowboys-vs-raiders-mnf-week-11-td-picks-2025-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/cowboys-vs-raiders-mnf-week-11-td-picks-2025-season\/","title":{"rendered":"Cowboys vs. Raiders Week 11 MNF TD picks: Dont&#8217;e Thornton Jr. is a value play at +650"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>A disastrous offence meets a disastrous defence on Monday Night Football, and I&#8217;ve got a +650 long shot TD scorer in my sights.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> The Dallas Cowboys&#8217; defence has struggled to stop much of anything this year, while the Las Vegas Raiders&#8217; offence has been just as inept at putting up points. Raiders rookie Dont&#8217;e Thornton Jr. is an intriguing flier to break through for the Raiders at home. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my top Cowboys vs. Raiders MNF TD picks for Week 11, featuring Dallas tight end Jake Ferguson.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"acq_only\"><strong>-> <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.com\/promoRedirect?key=ej0xMzUyNTA0MiZsPTEzNTI1MDAwJnA9ODMzNw%3D%3D\">Join NorthStar Bets to start betting on the NFL<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Cowboys vs. Raiders TD picks: Week 11<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best bet: Ferguson to score a TD (+137)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Before I make a case for my long shot play, let&#8217;s start with a safer option.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ferguson didn&#8217;t find the end zone in his final two games before the Cowboys&#8217; bye, but he&#8217;s seeing plenty of high-quality targets and has a pretty enticing price to find his way back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"acq_only\"><strong>-> <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.com\/promoRedirect?key=ej0xMzUyNTA0MiZsPTEzNTI1MDAwJnA9ODMzNw%3D%3D\">Bet on Monday Night Football prop markets<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Ferguson has 6+ targets and 5+ catches in seven of nine games.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>In the red zone, Ferguson has been targeted 14 times over the past seven games. He&#8217;s 4-3 vs. this prop in that span, with six TDs overall.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Ferguson&#8217;s 14 red zone targets lead the Cowboys. George Pickens (11 RZ targets) is the only other player in double digits.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Ferguson had zero TDs last season on 59 catches. That&#8217;s because he wasn&#8217;t a focal point in the red zone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The one-time Pro Bowler has more targets inside the 10-yard line in his past three games (four) than he had across 14 games last year (three).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are three Cowboys with shorter TD odds than Ferguson, and I don&#8217;t believe that should be the case. Given his volume of red zone looks, I think he&#8217;s a value play at this price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Ferguson has been targeted inside the 10-yard line in six of his past seven games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"acq_only\"><strong>-> <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.com\/promoRedirect?key=ej0xMzUyNTA0MiZsPTEzNTI1MDAwJnA9ODMzNw%3D%3D\">Visit NorthStar Bets for all NFL betting markets<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">&nbsp;Sunday Night Football TD picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Thornton to score a TD (+650):<\/strong> It&#8217;s easy to see why Thornton is a long shot pick to score. He only has one catch since Week 4 and one red zone target all season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If there was ever a time to swing for the fences with him, though, it&#8217;s against this Dallas defence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Dallas has allowed 16 receiving TDs to wide receivers through nine games (1.8\/game), far and away the most in the NFL. The Chicago Bears are next, surrendering 14 TDs in 10 games (1.4\/game).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Opposing quarterbacks have a 106.9 passer rating vs. the Cowboys this season, per Rotowire. For context, reigning MVP Josh Allen has a 105.6 passer rating this year.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"acq_only\"><strong>-> <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.com\/promoRedirect?key=ej0xMzUyNTA0MiZsPTEzNTI1MDAwJnA9ODMzNw%3D%3D\">Bet on Thornton to score as a +650 long shot<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thornton was No. 2 among Raiders receivers in offensive snaps in two of their past three games. But he was also a healthy scratch in the other matchup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I don&#8217;t expect Thornton to be targeted much in the red zone, but I&#8217;m swinging for the fences with him because he&#8217;s a home run hitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The fourth-round draftee has an 18.5-yard average depth of target, which ranks in the 98th percentile. His 28.6% catch rate, meanwhile, is dead last in the NFL.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is an all-or-nothing proposition, and I&#8217;m taking my chances against the best matchup imaginable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Cowboys vs. Raiders predictions made at 3 p.m. ET on Nov. 17, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"acq_only\"><strong>-> <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.com\/promoRedirect?key=ej0xMzUyNTA0MiZsPTEzNTI1MDAwJnA9ODMzNw%3D%3D\">Sign up to NorthStar Bets today<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A disastrous offence meets a disastrous defence on Monday Night Football, and I&#8217;ve got a +650 long shot TD scorer in my sights. The pregame narrative: The Dallas Cowboys&#8217; defence has struggled to stop much of anything this year, while the Las Vegas Raiders&#8217; offence has been just as inept at putting up points. Raiders [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":382116,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,61],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-382168","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-nfl"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Cowboys vs. Raiders TD picks: MNF Week 11 | The Boost<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our 2025 Week 11 Cowboys vs. Raiders TD picks. 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