{"id":378336,"date":"2025-10-29T16:19:11","date_gmt":"2025-10-29T20:19:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=378336"},"modified":"2025-10-29T16:19:11","modified_gmt":"2025-10-29T20:19:11","slug":"nfl-week-9-upset-picks-and-predictions-2025-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/nfl-week-9-upset-picks-and-predictions-2025-season\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Week 9 upset picks: Bills, Bengals are worth backing as home underdogs"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

There are eight home underdogs in this week’s action, and I’m backing two of them as NFL upset picks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The pregame narrative<\/strong>: In Buffalo, the Bills take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the game of the week. Buffalo is only getting points at home for the sixth time since 2020. Elsewhere, the Cincinnati Bengals look to bounce back against a Chicago Bears team that hasn’t fared well on the road.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Check out my top Week 9 NFL upset picks for games on Nov. 2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-> Join NorthStar Bets and start wagering on the NFL<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

NFL upset picks: Week 9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Embed: #120445<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best bet: Bills moneyline (+110)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Bills are barely<\/em> underdogs this week, but I’m happy to back them at home at any number with a “+” sign in front of it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since 2022 regular season, the Bills are 28-5 at home. Their .840 win percentage at home in that span is the best in the NFL.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Chiefs come to town looking like a Death Star again, winning five of their past six games by 13+ points. So if anyone was going to lay points as visitors in Western New York, it’s these guys.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-> Wager on NFL Week 9 at NorthStar Bets<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But let’s not give KC too much credit. During their recent 5-1 stretch, four of the games were at home. And they only obtained one reputable win (vs. Lions).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Their others wins came against the Giants, Ravens, Raiders and Commanders \u2014 teams with a combined 9-21 record.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And the last time the Chiefs were on the road, they lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars, 31-28, as 3.5-point favourites.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Buffalo had some shaky results ahead of its Week 7 bye, but the team came out of it with a get-right effort in Carolina (40-9 win). The Bills are a balanced squad, ranking in the top 10 in scoring on both sides of the ball.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also, Buffalo has owned KC in regular season matchups in recent seasons. It’s the playoff showdowns that tend to break the Chiefs’ way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over the previous four seasons, the Bills are 4-0 with a +34 point differential in regular season games vs. the Chiefs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key stat<\/strong>: Since 2020, the Bills have only been home underdogs five times. They’re 4-1 SU in those games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NFL underdog predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Bengals moneyline (+130):<\/strong> The New York Jets had been the final winless team in the NFL … until the Bengals handed them a win last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Somehow, the Bengals choked away a 15-point lead \u2014 at home \u2014 against the Jets. Not great. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But hey, they did beat the AFC North-leading Pittsburgh Steelers at home the week before (as 5.5-point underdogs).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cincy is a +3 home dog this week against a Bears squad that has been pretty sloppy on the road. I just don’t think the Bears deserve to be favoured.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-> Don’t miss out \u2014 Bet on the NFL now at NorthStar Bets<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chicago is 2-2 SU on the road, but both of its wins came by exactly one point. The losses, including last week’s 30-16 drubbing in Baltimore, came by a combined 45 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One aspect of this pick to keep an eye on closer to kickoff is the health status of Cincinnati quarterback Joe Flacco. He left last week’s loss to the Jets due to a shoulder sprain but returned before the end of the game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Flacco’s backup is Jake Browning, who is 3-2 for the Bengals in home starts (since joining the NFL in 2023).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NFL upset picks made at 3:20 p.m. ET on 10\/29\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

-> Sign up to NorthStar Bets today<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

There are eight home underdogs in this week’s action, and I’m backing two of them as NFL upset picks. The pregame narrative: In Buffalo, the Bills take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the game of the week. Buffalo is only getting points at home for the sixth time since 2020. Elsewhere, the Cincinnati Bengals […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":378316,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,61],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-378336","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-nfl"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNFL upset picks: 2025 Week 9 underdog predictions | The Boost<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our 2025 Week 9 NFL upset picks. 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