{"id":376596,"date":"2025-10-20T09:59:15","date_gmt":"2025-10-20T13:59:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=376596"},"modified":"2025-10-20T16:48:02","modified_gmt":"2025-10-20T20:48:02","slug":"mlb-mariners-vs-blue-jays-alcs-game-7-picks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-mariners-vs-blue-jays-alcs-game-7-picks\/","title":{"rendered":"Mariners vs. Blue Jays Game 7 ALCS prop picks: Bet on Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Shane Bieber with World Series berth at stake"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The Toronto Blue Jays have forced a Game 7 on home turf, setting up an opportunity to clinch a World Series berth on Monday night.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Toronto dug out of an early two-game deficit against the Seattle Mariners, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. helping lead the charge on offence. Guerrero went 2-for-4 with a laser of a home run in Game 6, continuing his statistical rampage through the playoffs.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my Mariners vs. Blue Jays picks for Oct. 20, featuring predictions on Guerrero, Shane Bieber and J.P. Crawford.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"qcq_only\"><strong>-> <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.com\/promoRedirect?key=ej0xMzUyNTA0MiZsPTEzNTI1MDAwJnA9ODMzNw%3D%3D\">Join NorthStar Bets and start betting on the Blue Jays<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mariners vs. Blue Jays picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:119862\">Embed: #119862<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best bet: Guerrero over 0.5 runs (-108)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s been a magical postseason ride for the Blue Jays, and right in the middle of it all is their $500-million superstar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>From a power perspective, Guerrero&#8217;s 2025 regular season was a disappointment to many. But he has been an absolute wrecking ball in the playoffs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Through 10 postseason games, Guerrero has 11 runs and a .462\/.532\/1.000 slash line.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Guerrero has driven himself in six times with home runs, including HRs in three of the past four ALCS games. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Is a .462 batting average sustainable over a large sample? No, but we&#8217;re not here to project anything further out than tonight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And Guerrero&#8217;s .408 xBA in the postseason, as gauged by Baseball Savant, tells me he&#8217;s not lucking into much of this production. The all-star first baseman also reached base 24 times while only striking out twice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"acq_only\"><strong>-> <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.com\/promoRedirect?key=ej0xMzUyNTA0MiZsPTEzNTI1MDAwJnA9ODMzNw%3D%3D\">Bet on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to come up big in Game 7<\/a><\/strong>!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The last time Guerrero dug in against Mariners starter George Kirby, he went 3-for-3 with a single, double and home run.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kirby coughed up eight earned runs over 4.0 innings, and Guerrero had two of them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;d be tough to be more locked in than Vladdy is right now, and this is a matchup he has thrived in already in this series. Backing him to score at near-even money is something I&#8217;ll do gladly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Since Game 3 of the ALCS, Guerrero has scored six runs while reaching base in 12 of 18 plate appearances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB prop picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong>Bieber over 4.5 Ks (-138)<\/strong><\/strong>: How quick will the hook be from Jays manager John Schneider tonight?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That&#8217;s the key question when looking at Bieber&#8217;s strikeouts line. Because in a vacuum, this is at least one strikeout below what I&#8217;d typically expect the former Cy Young winner to see.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Last night, rookie Trey Yesavage had enough rope from Schneider to throw 87 pitches over 5.2 innings \u2014 facing multiple bases-loaded situations along the way. Yesavage struck out seven.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Bieber, who has worked into the sixth inning or later in seven of nine starts this year (playoffs and regular season) should be afforded a similar opportunity.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Last time out, Bieber fanned eight Mariners over 6.0 innings. He garnered a 37.8% whiff rate, per Baseball Savant, which is far above MLB average (25.3%).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"acq_only\"><strong>-> <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.com\/promoRedirect?key=ej0xMzUyNTA0MiZsPTEzNTI1MDAwJnA9ODMzNw%3D%3D\">See Shane Bieber&#8217;s Game 7 props at NorthStar Bets<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Crawford over 0.5 hits (-150):<\/strong> Crawford has surprisingly good numbers against Bieber, and that has me interested in taking a flier on his bat in the bottom-third of the lineup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Crawford is 7-for-14 vs. Bieber. All of the hits were singles, but that&#8217;s perfectly fine for this prop.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>In the postseason, Crawford is 6-5 vs. this prop. He only has a .189 average (7-for-37), but his .269 xBA, per Baseball Savant, suggests the contact quality has been solid.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Crawford is hitless in his past three games, though he&#8217;s reached safely with three walks in that span. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I expect him to put the ball in play against Bieber, whose 4.4% walk rate is among the lowest in the majors (for context, league average is 8.4%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Blue Jays vs. Mariners picks made at 9:55 a.m. on 10\/20\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"acq_only\"><strong>-> <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.com\/promoRedirect?key=ej0xMzUyNTA0MiZsPTEzNTI1MDAwJnA9ODMzNw%3D%3D\">Sign up to NorthStar Bets today<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Toronto Blue Jays have forced a Game 7 on home turf, setting up an opportunity to clinch a World Series berth on Monday night. The pregame narrative: Toronto dug out of an early two-game deficit against the Seattle Mariners, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. helping lead the charge on offence. Guerrero went 2-for-4 with a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":376590,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-376596","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Mariners vs. Blue Jays picks: ALCS Game 7 props | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Mariners vs. Blue Jays picks for Oct. 20, 2025. 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