{"id":373769,"date":"2025-10-07T11:45:46","date_gmt":"2025-10-07T15:45:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=373769"},"modified":"2025-10-14T09:47:54","modified_gmt":"2025-10-14T13:47:54","slug":"mariners-vs-tigers-predictions-alds-game-3-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mariners-vs-tigers-predictions-alds-game-3-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Mariners vs. Tigers Game 3 ALDS SGP predictions: Fade offence, look for Gilbert to rack up strikeouts"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Either the Detroit Tigers or the Seattle Mariners will be on the verge of advancing to the ALCS following Tuesday&#8217;s Game 3 matchup in the Motor City.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> The Tigers and Mariners split the first two games out west, turning this into effectively a best-of-three series. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/logan_gilbert\/pitching-stats\">Logan Gilbert<\/a> has racked up a ton of strikeouts against Detroit this season, and he&#8217;ll try to keep that rolling today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my Mariners vs. Tigers predictions for ALDS Game 3, featuring prop bets on Gilbert and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/zach_mckinstry\/batting-stats\">Zach McKinstry<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mariners vs. Tigers predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Parlay: McKinstry under 0.5 hits | Under 8.5 runs | Gilbert over 5.5 Ks (+330)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNTc4NzU5JnA9MjM3Njk%3D\">McKinstry under 0.5 hits (+128)<\/a>:<\/strong> McKinstry was an all-star this year for the first time, but he really took his foot off the gas in the second half.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Pre-all-star:<\/strong> .285\/.364\/.472 slash line, hitless in 28 of 80 starts (35.0%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Post-all-star (56 games):<\/strong> .213\/.278\/.378 slash line, hitless in 23 of 48 starts (47.9%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>For a guy who entered 2025 with a career 77 OPS+, this seems like a classic regression to the mean.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>McKinstry ranks in the 24th percentile or worse in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, xSLG and average exit velocity. He went 0-for-2 with a strikeout and a walk when he last faced Gilbert (July 13).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So far in the postseason, McKinstry is 1-for-16 (.063) with eight strikeouts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:118916\">Embed: #118916<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB stats &amp; standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB SGP legs<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNTc4NzU5JnA9MjM3Njk%3D\"><strong>Under 8.5 runs<\/strong> (-155)<\/a>:<\/strong> Toronto scored more runs in Game 2 of its ALDS series (13) than Seattle has in its last five games combined (11). Runs have been at a premium for the Mariners, to say the least.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But the Tigers have been worse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Detroit has a .186\/.289\/.256 slash line through five playoff games, with just eight extra-base hits as a team. The Tigers, frankly, have been a tough watch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>This under is 4-1 in Detroit&#8217;s five playoff games so far, including both matchups in this series against Seattle.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The average total in the Tigers&#8217; postseason games is 5.8 runs.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Logan Gilbert has a 2.52 ERA and an 11.0 K\/9 rate over his past seven starts, while Jack Flaherty has posted a 34.5 K% vs. the Mariners&#8217; active lineup. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Both pitchers should be able to carve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNTc4NzU5JnA9MjM3Njk%3D\"><strong>Gilbert over 5.5 strikeouts <\/strong>(-220)<\/a>:<\/strong> I&#8217;ve got more to say about Gilbert, who&#8217;s been among the very best strikeout pitchers when healthy this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Gilbert didn&#8217;t throw quite enough innings to be a qualified pitcher, but among 95 guys with 130+ innings he led the way with an 11.9 K\/9.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>He averaged 6.9 Ks per start this season and went 19-6 vs. this prop.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Gilbert started twice against the Tigers and racked up 19 Ks over just 10.1 innings.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Detroit has been striking out a ton in the postseason, posting a 29.6 K%. That&#8217;s up from its 23.9 K% during the regular season, which was fourth-highest in MLB.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Mariners vs. Tigers picks as of 11:16 a.m. on 10\/07\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking to get started? <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNzQxMyZsPTEzNTI3NDExJnA9MjMyNDM%3D\">Sign up here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Either the Detroit Tigers or the Seattle Mariners will be on the verge of advancing to the ALCS following Tuesday&#8217;s Game 3 matchup in the Motor City. The pregame narrative: The Tigers and Mariners split the first two games out west, turning this into effectively a best-of-three series. Logan Gilbert has racked up a ton [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":373813,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-373769","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Mariners vs. Tigers predictions: ALDS Game 3 SGP | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Mariners vs. Tigers predictions for ALDS Game 3. 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