{"id":373574,"date":"2025-10-06T11:54:21","date_gmt":"2025-10-06T15:54:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=373574"},"modified":"2025-10-06T15:43:04","modified_gmt":"2025-10-06T19:43:04","slug":"chiefs-vs-jaguars-mnf-week-5-td-picks-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/chiefs-vs-jaguars-mnf-week-5-td-picks-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Chiefs vs. Jaguars Week 5 MNF TD picks: Bet on Travis Kelce to score in Jacksonville"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nfl\/player-stats\/travis_kelce\">Travis Kelce<\/a> hasn&#8217;t scored since Week 1, but he&#8217;s my best bet to find the end zone on Monday Night Football. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative: <\/strong>The Kansas City Chiefs are still looking Kelce&#8217;s way in the red zone on a consistent basis, and I don&#8217;t see why that would change now. For a play with slightly longer odds, look to KC&#8217;s short-yardage running back, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nfl\/player-stats\/kareem_hunt\">Kareem Hunt<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out our top Chiefs vs. Jaguars MNF TD picks for Oct. 6.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Chiefs vs. Jaguars TD picks: Week 5<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best Bet: Kelce to score a TD (+185)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/nfl_bts_2025?utm_source=Insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_campaign=bts_2025\">Weekly prizes &amp; bet boosts: Beat the Spread Challenge. ENTER NOW!<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At 36 years old, Kelce is not the yardage generator or touchdown machine that he once was. But the future Hall of Famer is still a consistent presence in the red zone, and that has my attention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Kelce is the only Chief to be targeted inside the red zone in all four games this season.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>He has an 85.2% route participation rate, according to Player Profiler, which is seventh among tight ends<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Kelce has yet to convert any of his four red zone targets (including two inside the 10-yard line) into points. But if KC is going to be patient with any of its pass-catchers, it&#8217;s going to be the veteran TE.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Teams haven&#8217;t put up much success in the ground game against Jacksonville, so I think this matchup could be advantageous for Kelce, too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Jaguars have only allowed one rushing TD through four games. They&#8217;re also holding opponents to an NFL-low rushing success rate in the NFL (28.6%), per RBSDM.com.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kelce caught all of his targets for a season-high five receptions last week and is still at the core of what the Chiefs&#8217; offensive strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat: <\/strong>In two games against the Jaguars since 2022, Kelce has 10 catches for 107 yards and two TDs (going 2-0 vs. this prop).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:118878\">Embed: #118878<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/american_football?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_nfl\"><strong>Full NFL markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nfl\/standingshttps:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nfl?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_nfl\"><strong>NFL player &amp; team stats<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/nfl-injury-report\"><strong>NFL injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Monday Night Football TD picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Hunt to score a TD (+235):<\/strong> I did just highlight the Jaguars&#8217; stoutness as a run defence, but I think Hunt is worth a flier at these odds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>KC&#8217;s rushing attack has been miserable, evidenced by the fact that Patrick Mahomes is the leading rusher (130 yards, two TDs). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This isn&#8217;t about Hunt potentially having a huge week. It&#8217;s merely a belief that he&#8217;ll continue seeing the most valuable carries available.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Hunt is the only Chiefs tailback with a carry inside the 10-yard line.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>He&#8217;s had six red zone carries over the past three games. Half of those have been from inside the 10.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Last week, Hunt led a muddled backfield in snap share, with Isiah Pacheco and Brashard Smith trailing behind. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Smith, a rookie, could continue to get more run as a change-of-pace back. But he doesn&#8217;t have any red zone carries yet, so I&#8217;m not overly concerned there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In a game where the Chiefs are favoured and Hunt has a solidly defined role as the short-yardage runner, this anytime TD price really stands out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Chiefs vs. Jaguars TD picks made at 11:32 a.m. ET on 10\/06\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Travis Kelce hasn&#8217;t scored since Week 1, but he&#8217;s my best bet to find the end zone on Monday Night Football. The pregame narrative: The Kansas City Chiefs are still looking Kelce&#8217;s way in the red zone on a consistent basis, and I don&#8217;t see why that would change now. For a play with slightly [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":373581,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[61],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-373574","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nfl","tag-nfl-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Chiefs vs. Jaguars MNF TD picks: Week 5 | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our 2025 Week 5 Chiefs vs. Jaguars TD picks. 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