{"id":373076,"date":"2025-10-04T11:43:33","date_gmt":"2025-10-04T15:43:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=373076"},"modified":"2025-10-04T11:43:34","modified_gmt":"2025-10-04T15:43:34","slug":"mlb-prop-bets-and-game-1-division-series-predictions-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-prop-bets-and-game-1-division-series-predictions-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Best MLB Game 1 division series prop bets: Bet on Hernandez to rake, fade Schwarber in NLDS showdown"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>MLB&#8217;s division series begin on Saturday, and I&#8217;m targeting a trio of players in the final two games of the quadruple-header.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-d0873b89-4dfa-47d6-9954-56140c451c77\"><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB props narrative<\/strong>: Shohei Ohtani gets the start for the Dodgers in Philadelphia, and that&#8217;s bad news for the Phillies&#8217; chances to put runs on the board. On the flip side of that matchup, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/teoscar_hernandez\/batting-stats\">Teoscar Hernandez<\/a> is swinging a hot bat and will have a platoon advantage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-d0873b89-4dfa-47d6-9954-56140c451c77\">Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Saturday&#8217;s postseason action, featuring predictions on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/kyle_schwarber\/batting-stats\">Kyle Schwarber<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/kerry_carpenter\/batting-stats\">Kerry Carpenter<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-22b3784f-32c2-400a-beef-1578a991be49\">MLB prop bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-0c59b741-4781-48d8-8ffa-d93f8ee90c10\"><strong>Best bet:<strong> Carpenter over 1.5 bases (+185), to get a hit (-134)<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Depending on your appetite for risk, I have two predictions for the guy who&#8217;s somewhat generously nicknamed &#8220;Kerry Bonds.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The left-hitting outfielder is off to a nice start in the postseason, batting 4-for-10 with a double and three walks. He has a hit in all three games and is 2-1 vs. this bases prop. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Carpenter slugged .512 against right-handed pitchers during the regular season, and his .512 xSLG on the season ranks in the 89th percentile (per Baseball Savant).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He also has crazy good numbers against Mariners righty George Kirby:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>4-for-8<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>4 HRs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>104 mph average exit velocity<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Kirby is coming off the worst of his four seasons as a big-leaguer, posting a 4.21 ERA (90 ERA+). He also posted a 4.72 K\/BB ratio, which was drastically lower than his two previous seasons (7.78, 9.05).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Still, Kirby&#8217;s 5.5% walk rate is among the highest in the majors, ranking in the 89th percentile. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And Carpenter seldom walks (3.9%, second percentile), so this is a great matchup to expect balls in play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-13bf476e-3f27-4d52-86f2-70dff07fd638\"><strong>Key stat<\/strong>: Since the beginning of September, Carpenter has a .269 xBA, a 50% hard-hit rate and a 92.2 mph average exit velocity. For context, league averages in those categories are .252 xBA, 40.9% hard-hit rate and an 89.4 mph exit velo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:118751\">Embed: #118751<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul id=\"block-10146156-2d6b-49a8-b097-37743fd550b5\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB stats &amp; standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-ebade6eb-0e6a-4675-8cbc-3a4396c11ac4\">MLB postseason player props<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Schwarber under 0.5 runs (-118)<\/strong>: If you want to fade the Phillies with Shohei Ohtani on the mound, there are very few playable lines as standalones. But this is one of them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Schwarber is the leadoff man for a very talented Phillies lineup, so naturally, he scores a lot. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But it&#8217;s a tough task to score on Ohtani, who kept Schwarber&#8217;s Phillies hitless through five innings on Sept. 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ohtani has allowed just one run over his past four starts (19.2 innings) while striking out 27 batters. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Schwarber has massive power potential, but he has plenty of swing-and-miss, too. Over his past 35 games, he&#8217;s batting .192 with 45 Ks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In that span, Schwarber has gone under 0.5 runs in 19 games (54.3%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Hernandez over 1.5 total bases (+140):<\/strong> Hernandez showed up big time in the Dodgers&#8217; two-game sweep of the Reds in the wild-card series, and I expect him to stay hot on Saturday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the opening round of the playoffs, Hernandez went 4-for-10 with two home runs and a double vs. Cincinnati. He cashed this bet both times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The ex-Blue Jay didn&#8217;t have his best year overall, but I&#8217;m still partial to backing him when there&#8217;s a lefty on the mound. Hernandez has a .549 SLG in his career against LHPs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When facing Philadelphia&#8217;s Cristopher Sanchez in particular, Hernandez is 5-for-12 with two homers and two doubles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-571cf986-8d14-4776-b519-20fa27d04fec\"><em>MLB prop picks made at 11:25 a.m. ET on 10\/04\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>MLB&#8217;s division series begin on Saturday, and I&#8217;m targeting a trio of players in the final two games of the quadruple-header. Today&#8217;s MLB props narrative: Shohei Ohtani gets the start for the Dodgers in Philadelphia, and that&#8217;s bad news for the Phillies&#8217; chances to put runs on the board. On the flip side of that [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":373146,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-373076","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB prop bets Oct. 4: Game 1 division series predictions | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB prop bets for Game 1 of the division series. 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