{"id":372976,"date":"2025-10-03T16:04:04","date_gmt":"2025-10-03T20:04:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=372976"},"modified":"2025-10-03T16:04:05","modified_gmt":"2025-10-03T20:04:05","slug":"patriots-vs-bills-week-5-sunday-night-football-picks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/patriots-vs-bills-week-5-sunday-night-football-picks\/","title":{"rendered":"Patriots vs. Bills Week 5 Sunday Night Football picks: Best prop bets on Drake Maye, Dalton Kincaid"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The Buffalo Bills welcome a division rival on Sunday Night Football with their perfect season on the line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> The New England Patriots are playing above expectations, sporting a 2-2 record heading into Week 5. In saying that, the Bills are sizable 8-point favourites to win and improve on their lead atop the AFC East.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my Patriots vs. Bills picks for the Sunday Night Football matchup on Oct. 5, featuring prop predictions on Drake Maye and Dalton Kincaid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Patriots vs. Bills picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best bet: <strong>Maye over 222.5 passing yards (-118)<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/american_football\/competitions\/12295\/matches\"><strong>Full NFL markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nfl\/top-players\/passing-yards\"><strong>NFL player &amp; team stats<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/nfl-injury-report-news\"><strong>NFL injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nfl\/standings\"><strong>NFL standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Let&#8217;s get the ugly out of the way first. Buffalo allows the fewest passing yards per game (125.8)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But that has to be taken with a grain of salt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Week 1:<\/strong> Lamar Jackson (14-for-19, 209 yards)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Week 2:<\/strong> Justin Fields\/Tyrod Taylor (10-for-21, 83 yards)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Week 3:<\/strong> Tua Tagovailoa (22-for-34, 146 yards)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Week 4:<\/strong> Spencer Rattler (18-for-27, 126 yards)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s safe to say the Bills haven&#8217;t faced the best quarterbacks. Jackson didn&#8217;t need to pass much due to the Baltimore Ravens rumbling for 238 rushing yards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now, let&#8217;s focus on Maye. He&#8217;s 3-1 against this line, averaging 247 passing yards. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the one game he fell short, the Pats demolished the Carolina Panthers, 42-13, and Maye only needed to throw 17 times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I can all but guarantee he won&#8217;t be in the position to cruise against the Bills and should get back up to his average of 30.8 attempts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>New England certainly doesn&#8217;t have the rushing attack that Baltimore does. Plus, the squad is a big underdog, and Maye would pass more playing from behind.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> In Maye&#8217;s only complete game against the Bills in his career, he completed 22-of-36 passes for 261 yards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sunday Night Football prop pick<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Kincaid anytime touchdown<\/strong> <strong>(+210):<\/strong> Kincaid has been Josh Allen&#8217;s favourite weapon in the red zone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The tight end leads the Bills in targets inside 20 yards (five) and touchdowns (three).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even though that&#8217;s the case, he has the third-shortest odds to score amongst pass catchers behind Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Patriots allow the seventh most yards to tight ends (63.0) and gave up two touchdowns to the position last week in their 42-13 blowout over the Panthers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Buffalo has a lot more offensive potential with Kincaid being a prime target near the end zone. I love the value here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Patriots vs. Bills<\/em> <em>picks made at 1:57 p.m. ET 10\/03\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Buffalo Bills welcome a division rival on Sunday Night Football with their perfect season on the line. The pregame narrative: The New England Patriots are playing above expectations, sporting a 2-2 record heading into Week 5. In saying that, the Bills are sizable 8-point favourites to win and improve on their lead atop the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":372887,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,61],"tags":[181,14],"class_list":["post-372976","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-nfl","tag-nfl","tag-nfl-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Patriots vs. Bills picks SNF: 2025 NFL Week 5 | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our 2025 Week 5 Patriots vs. Bills picks. 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