{"id":372868,"date":"2025-10-03T16:12:45","date_gmt":"2025-10-03T20:12:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=372868"},"modified":"2025-10-03T16:12:45","modified_gmt":"2025-10-03T20:12:45","slug":"mlb-postseason-picks-and-predictions-october-4-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-postseason-picks-and-predictions-october-4-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB postseason picks and predictions Oct. 4: Best  bets on Toronto, Seattle and Freddy Peralta in Game 1 of NLDS"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The second round of the MLB postseason kicks off with a quadruple header on Oct. 4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The playoff narrative:<\/strong> Saturday&#8217;s slate begins with the two No. 1 seeds \u2014 the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/teams\/mil_milwaukee_brewers\/roster\">Milwaukee Brewers<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/teams\/tor_toronto_blue_jays\/roster\">Toronto Blue Jays<\/a> \u2014 in action. I have plays on both games and expect a comfortable win from the Seattle Mariners to close out the night.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my MLB postseason predictions, featuring a moneyline play, run line pick and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/freddy_peralta\/pitching-stats\">Freddy Peralta<\/a> prop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB postseason predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best bet: Blue Jays moneyline (-132)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here&#8217;s why I like Toronto to win Game 1 of the ALDS vs. the New York Yankees:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Starting pitching advantage.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Rested bullpen.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Home dominance.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Toronto is turning to its ace, Kevin Gausman, for Game 1, while the Yankees counter with a backend arm (Will Warren or Luis Gil).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One of those pitchers will have to navigate a versatile Blue Jays lineup that ranked first in MLB in batting average and on-base percentage, and was No. 1 in wRC+ in the second half.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is the reward the Jays received for securing the AL&#8217;s top seed and a bye. They get to line up their rotation, while New York is unable to turn its rotation back over to the top until&nbsp;Game 2 after playing in the wild-card round.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Toronto&#8217;s bullpen has been a rollercoaster, but it was pretty sharp in September after getting manhandled coming out of the all-star break.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>More importantly, the group has enjoyed a breather. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>New York got a lot of innings out of its starters in the wild-card series, but it used closer David Bednar in three straight games, and Fernando Cruz and Devin Williams twice apiece.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Let&#8217;s not discount that Game&nbsp;1 is in Toronto, either.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Blue Jays enjoyed home cooking, going an AL-best 54-27 at Rogers Centre.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Toronto went 8-5 against New York (6-1 at home), and Gausman was dynamite in his final two starts against the Bronx Bombers.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>With the way the starting pitching matchups are likely to shake out, this will be the most winnable game of the series for Toronto.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat<\/strong>: Gausman allowed one run in each of his final two starts vs. New York. He went seven-plus innings in both outings, striking out 13 and walking three.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:118738\">Embed: #118738<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\">Full MLB betting markets<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\">MLB injury report<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\">MLB stats &amp; standings<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB playoff best bets<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Mariners -1.5 (+112): <\/strong>At the time of writing, the Game 1 starters are unknown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But the best guess is Logan Gilbert for the Mariners and a bullpen game for the Detroit Tigers. Tarik Skubal will almost certainly be held until Sunday&#8217;s Game 2 after pitching Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gilbert is a difference-maker who should have his way with this scuffling lineup before turning it over to Seattle&#8217;s bullpen. That group ranked top 10 in ERA and K% in the second half.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The righty allowed two runs or fewer in five straight starts to close the season (2.30 ERA in September).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Gilbert had the third-best K rate in MLB (minimum 100 innings) and put up a 2.24 ERA at home.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The Tigers had scored five runs through their three wild-card games before adding four in the seventh inning of their Game 3 win. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Detroit hit .218 and got on base at a .287 clip in the wild-card round and will have to bust out this weekend at one of MLB&#8217;s most pitcher-friendly venues, T-Mobile Park.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Behind MLB home run leader Cal Raliegh, Seattle had the second-best offence in baseball (per wRC+), and was 16% better than the Tigers in the second half.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Detroit: .431 win% post-ASG.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Seattle: .591 win% post-ASG.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB pitching prop pick<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Peralta over 14.5 outs (-152):<\/strong> Peralta was one of the best pitchers in the majors this season. He has had ample time to rest and plan for his first assignment of the postseason.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The right-hander cleared this line in 30 of 33 starts.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One miss was the last day of the season, a meaningless game for Milwaukee. It used it as a tune-up for several pitchers, deploying seven arms in a 4-2 win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Though one of the others came against the Chicago Cubs, I&#8217;m not swayed by that late July outcome.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Peralta posted a career-best 2.70 ERA.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>He was dominant at home: 1.77 ERA\/17 starts.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Top 10 in K% and hard-hit rate.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Peralta can dominate any lineup, but betting on him to get 15-plus outs doesn&#8217;t even ask for that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Brewers have a rested staff thanks to their first-round bye and an off day before Game 2 on Monday, so I&#8217;d expect them to be aggressive with their bullpen if needed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But this is such a light line for a No. 1 starter in a non-elimination game that I&#8217;m comfortable dipping into the -150 territory to play it.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>MLB postseason predictions made at 1:55 p.m. ET on 10\/04\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The second round of the MLB postseason kicks off with a quadruple header on Oct. 4. The playoff narrative: Saturday&#8217;s slate begins with the two No. 1 seeds \u2014 the Milwaukee Brewers and Toronto Blue Jays \u2014 in action. I have plays on both games and expect a comfortable win from the Seattle Mariners to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":372949,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[130,10],"class_list":["post-372868","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB postseason predictions Oct. 4: LDS Game 1 picks | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our MLB postseason predictions for Oct. 4, 2025. 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