{"id":372623,"date":"2025-10-02T12:16:13","date_gmt":"2025-10-02T16:16:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=372623"},"modified":"2025-10-02T12:16:13","modified_gmt":"2025-10-02T16:16:13","slug":"nfl-week-5-best-bets-2025-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/nfl-week-5-best-bets-2025-season\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Week 5 staff best bets: Bet on Lions to roll Bengals, Justin Fields to produce as a passer"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Our staff&#8217;s Week 5 best bets feature a pair of ATS predictions, one moneyline pick and a prop bet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Week 5 narrative:<\/strong> Things are not looking good in Cincinnati, and now the Bengals face a Detroit Lions team firing on all cylinders. Also, Jaxson Dart and the New York Giants hit the road as enticing underdogs in New Orleans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out our NFL Week 5 staff best bets for our favourite picks this weekend, featuring a prediction on New York Jets quarterback Justin Fields.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">NFL Week 5 best bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>These NFL Week 5 best bets were provided by NorthStar Bets writers Avery Perri and Jordan Horrobin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/american_football\/competitions\/12295\/matches\"><strong>Full NFL markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nfl\/top-players\/passing-yards\"><strong>NFL player &amp; team stats<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/nfl-injury-report-news\"><strong>NFL injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nfl\/standings\"><strong>NFL standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">ATS picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Lions -10.5 (-106):<\/strong> Cincinnati has utterly imploded since losing Joe Burrow to injury, and I can&#8217;t imagine things getting better against a red-hot Detroit team that plays whistle-to-whistle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Bengals have been outscored 76-13 over their last two games. Now, they face a squad averaging 41.3 PPG during a three-game winning streak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Just take a look at what each team&#8217;s offence has done in Weeks 3 and 4:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Cincinnati: <\/strong>13 points, 330 total yards<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Detroit:<\/strong> 72 points, 703 total yards<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The Lions will put up a boatload of points \u2014 that&#8217;s a given. I just can&#8217;t see Cincinnati finding the end zone enough to make this match competitive. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Buccaneers +3.5 (-112):<\/strong> Styles make fights, and I think this matchup bodes well for Tampa Bay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Seahawks have the second-highest rush play percentage in the NFL (53.02%).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Buccaneers have held opponents to the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game (85.0) at the second-lowest yards per carry (3.3).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Tampa&#8217;s defence also ranks first in EPA per rush and second in rush success rate. It has held 12 straight opponents under 100 rushing yards. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>I have to put <em>some<\/em> respect on Sam Darnold&#8217;s name for a hot start, but he&#8217;s beaten up on a trio of underhwhelming defences (Steelers, Saints, Cardinals).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Things won&#8217;t come as easily against Tampa, and I trust Baker Mayfield to keep his offence (which admittedly has some injury problems) cooking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dart, Giants have value as underdogs<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Giants moneyline (+110):<\/strong> Dart didn&#8217;t have the prettiest day as a passer in his NFL debut, but he mixed in 54 yards and a TD on the ground to help fuel an upset win over the Chargers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The New Orleans Saints&#8217; defence ranks 29th in EPA per dropback, according to RBSDM.com, so they should be easier for Dart to operate against. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And the Cam Skattebo\/Dart combo in the running game has flashed plenty of promise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>New Orleans is 0-4 and ranks in the bottom five in scoring on both sides of the ball. Having home-field advantage is nice, but the Saints don&#8217;t deserve to be favoured.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Giants&#8217; loaded defensive line should make Spencer Rattler uncomfortable in this matchup. New York ranks fourth in QB knockdown rate (12.5%), per Sports Reference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">NFL Week 5 best bets: Player props<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Fields over 1.5 passing TDs (+190):<\/strong> This is oozing with value. Though Fields isn&#8217;t known as a pocket passer, New York should be forced into an aerial attack against the Dallas Cowboys.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Dallas owns a top-five scoring offence and a bottom-five scoring defence. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>After trading Micah Parsons, the Cowboys&#8217; defence ranks 27th in pass rush win rate and fourth in run stop win rate. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Dallas has allowed 10 passing touchdowns in its last three games, with each quarterback (Russell Wilson, Caleb Williams, Jordan Love) comfortably clearing this number. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Fields should be asked to throw the ball plenty in a matchup with serious shootout potential.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>NFL Week 5 best bets made at 12:09 p.m. ET on 10\/02\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Our staff&#8217;s Week 5 best bets feature a pair of ATS predictions, one moneyline pick and a prop bet. The Week 5 narrative: Things are not looking good in Cincinnati, and now the Bengals face a Detroit Lions team firing on all cylinders. Also, Jaxson Dart and the New York Giants hit the road as [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":372616,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,61],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-372623","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-nfl","tag-nfl-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>NFL Week 5 best bets: Staff predictions &amp; recommendations | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our 2025 NFL Week 5 staff best bets. 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