{"id":371853,"date":"2025-09-29T14:20:35","date_gmt":"2025-09-29T18:20:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=371853"},"modified":"2025-09-29T14:20:35","modified_gmt":"2025-09-29T18:20:35","slug":"red-sox-vs-yankees-predictions-game-1-mlb-wild-card-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/red-sox-vs-yankees-predictions-game-1-mlb-wild-card-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Red Sox vs. Yankees Game 1 wild-card SGP predictions: Fade Judge, look for Crochet to carve up New York in series opener"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The most storied rivalry in MLB will be renewed this week, as the New York Yankees host the Boston Red Sox in the wild-card round.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Boston got the better of New York during the regular season, but the Yankees finished five games ahead in the standings and will host this best-of-three series. Tuesday&#8217;s Game 1 is a battle of bona fide aces, with Max Fried and Garrett Crochet on the mound.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my +410 Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions for Game 1, featuring Aaron Judge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Parlay: Fried over 5.5 Ks | Crochet over 6.5 Ks | Judge under 1.5 bases | Red Sox +1.5 (+410)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Fried over 5.5 strikeouts (-143):<\/strong> Fried has been exactly the type of frontline pitcher the Yankees wanted to invest in this offseason, and his results against the Red Sox in 2025 are indicative of that:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>June 15:<\/strong> 7.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 9 K<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Aug. 22:<\/strong> 6.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 7 K<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Sept. 13:<\/strong> 5.1 IP, 9 H, 2 R, 6 K<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Fried is 3-0 vs. this prop and has a 1.96 ERA against the Red Sox this season. He&#8217;s certainly earned this Game 1 start.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Boston has the 10th-highest strikeout rate in the majors (22.9%), and it&#8217;s even higher against Fried (26.8% in 97 plate appearances).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fried is 19-13 vs. this prop market overall in 2025, and the Red Sox are a plus matchup for him at this number.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul id=\"block-10146156-2d6b-49a8-b097-37743fd550b5\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB stats &amp; standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:118523\">Embed: #118523<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB SGP legs<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Crochet over 6.5 Ks (-265):<\/strong> Crochet has absolutely carved up the Yankees. There&#8217;s no other way to say it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The left-hander has racked up 45 Ks in just 114 plate appearances against New York&#8217;s active lineup, as well as a 34.4% whiff rate, per Baseball Savant. For context, the league-average whiff rate is 25.3%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Crochet is 4-0 vs. this Ks total when facing the Yankees this year. He&#8217;s averaged 9.8 Ks per outing in that span.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Crochet paced the majors in strikeouts (255) and was the AL leader in K\/9 (11.2). He&#8217;s at the pinnacle of the sport in strikeout volume and efficiency. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Betting the over on 7.5 Ks at -130 looks solid for a standalone play, but I&#8217;ll shave off one strikeout to be a bit safer in the SGP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Boston&#8217;s fireballer went 23-9 vs. a 6.5-strikeout prop this season. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Judge under 1.5 total bases (-152):<\/strong> Aside from a couple of mistakes, Crochet has kept Judge muzzled at the plate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Judge, the two-time MLB home run king, has homered twice off Crochet. But overall, the slugger is just 3-for-15 with 11 strikeouts and a disastrous 61.8% whiff rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Guys like Judge and Shohei Ohtani are dangerous to fade in this market, but when the right matchup comes around, it can be worthwhile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And though I don&#8217;t think there&#8217;s a lot of stickiness that ties Judge&#8217;s 2024 postseason results to now, I do want to point out that he struggled quite a bit last fall:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>.184 BA<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>31.3 K%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Under 1.5 bases in 10 of 14 games<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Red Sox vs. Yankees run line prediction<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Red Sox +1.5 (-205):<\/strong> The Yankees are favoured to win Game 1 and the series, but I think Boston can at least keep this one close.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Red Sox are 9-4 with a +15 run differential against the Yankees this season.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>With Crochet on the mound, Boston went 4-0 vs. New York. Also, the Red Sox are 7-0 in Crochet&#8217;s past seven starts.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Against a +1.5 run line, the Red Sox are 28-4 with Crochet on the mound this season. That&#8217;s preposterously good.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>New York has home-field advantage, but I view Boston&#8217;s visitor status as a plus for this pick. The Red Sox are guaranteed to bat nine times, so maybe they can scratch something across in the ninth if they&#8217;re down by multiple runs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Boston is 40-22 ATS (64.5%) as an underdog this year, according to Team Rankings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions as of 1:36 p.m. on 09\/29\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The most storied rivalry in MLB will be renewed this week, as the New York Yankees host the Boston Red Sox in the wild-card round. The pregame narrative: Boston got the better of New York during the regular season, but the Yankees finished five games ahead in the standings and will host this best-of-three series. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":371917,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-371853","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions: Game 1 wild-card SGP | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions for Sept. 30, 2025. 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