{"id":371429,"date":"2025-09-27T09:33:38","date_gmt":"2025-09-27T13:33:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=371429"},"modified":"2025-09-27T09:33:38","modified_gmt":"2025-09-27T13:33:38","slug":"blue-jays-picks-and-predictions-vs-rays-september-27-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/blue-jays-picks-and-predictions-vs-rays-september-27-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Rays vs. Blue Jays picks and predictions Sept. 27: Fade Guerrero, bet on Yesavage to clear his Ks prop"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Still clinging to the slightest of advantages in the AL East, the Toronto Blue Jays host the Tampa Bay Rays on Saturday in the penultimate game of the regular season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Toronto won on Friday, but the New York Yankees held serve in their matchup elsewhere, meaning these teams are separated only by a tiebreaker. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/trey_yesavage\/pitching-stats\">Trey Yesavage<\/a>, who starts today for the Jays, carved up Tampa Bay&#8217;s lineup earlier this month in his MLB debut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Rays for Sept. 27, featuring prop bets on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/vladimir_guerrero_jr\/batting-stats\">Vladimir Guerrero Jr.<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/yandy_diaz\/batting-stats\">Yandy Diaz<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Blue Jays picks vs. Rays<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best bet: Diaz over 0.5 runs (+110)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yesavage posted a 52.8% whiff rate when he faced the Rays the first time around, which was the highest mark for any Jays starter since that stat was first tracked in 2009 (according to Sportsnet).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But you know who wasn&#8217;t fooled against the big right-hander? Diaz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The 1B\/DH went 2-for-2 with a double and a walk against Yesavage. He reached base all three times without a single swing-and-miss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Diaz is having a heck of a month for Tampa Bay, so we&#8217;re also catching him at a good time:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>22 games<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>16 runs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>.397 BA<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>1.059 OPS<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>16.1 BB%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>10.8 K%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Diaz is typically around league average in terms of walk rate, but he&#8217;s been more patient this month. That&#8217;s part of the reason I prefer the over on his runs prop rather than total bases (+102).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Baseball Savant, Diaz ranks in the 94th percentile in xBA (.296) and hard-hit rate (52.3%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Diaz has scored a run in 15 of his past 29 games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"acqonly_on\"><a href=\"cacheembed:118430\">Embed: #118430<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\">Full MLB betting markets<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\">MLB injury report<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\">MLB stats &amp; standings<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Jays prop predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Yesavage over 4.5 Ks (-124):<\/strong> The Rays were seeing Yesavage for the first time when he debuted on Sept. 15, and he left them guessing time after time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Toronto&#8217;s rookie right-hander finished with nine strikeouts over 5.0 innings of one-run ball. That&#8217;s how you justify a late-season call-up to a contending club.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Last time out, Yesavage only had two strikeouts over 4.0 innings. But that was against the Royals, who have the second-lowest K rate in the majors at 18.3% (Tampa has the ninth-highest K rate, 23.0%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I wouldn&#8217;t bank on Yesavage posting nine strikeouts again today, but getting just over halfway there should be doable. Remember, he had the Rays in knots last time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On Sept. 15, Yesavage garnered 19 whiffs, which was the second-highest total for a Blue Jays starter all season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Guerrero under 1.5 total bases (-129)<\/strong>: I faded Guerrero on this market \u2014 at this exact price \u2014 yesterday. And I don&#8217;t mind running it back based on how little power he&#8217;s displayed in recent weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Including yesterday, here&#8217;s what Guerrero has done offensively since Sept. 10:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>.217 BA<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>.233 SLG<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>1 extra-base hit<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Under 1.5 bases in 13 of 16 games<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s been more than three weeks since Vladdy went yard. He still has a 100th-percentile xBA (.317), but the power numbers aren&#8217;t following right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Guerrero also takes a lot of free passes, with an 87th-percentile walk rate. I&#8217;d consider fading him until further notice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Blue Jays picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET on 09\/27\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Still clinging to the slightest of advantages in the AL East, the Toronto Blue Jays host the Tampa Bay Rays on Saturday in the penultimate game of the regular season. The pregame narrative: Toronto won on Friday, but the New York Yankees held serve in their matchup elsewhere, meaning these teams are separated only by [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":371432,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-371429","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Blue Jays picks vs. Rays: Sept. 27 MLB betting | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Blue Jays picks vs. the Rays on Sept. 27, 2025. 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