{"id":371303,"date":"2025-09-26T14:53:47","date_gmt":"2025-09-26T18:53:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=371303"},"modified":"2025-09-27T08:26:51","modified_gmt":"2025-09-27T12:26:51","slug":"japan-open-predictions-and-best-bets-round-of-16-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/japan-open-predictions-and-best-bets-round-of-16-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Japan Open round of 16 picks and predictions: Best bets on Alcaraz vs. Bergs, Nakashima vs. Fucsovics"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The Japan Open has reached the round of 16 and the world’s No. 1-ranked men’s player is in action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The pre-match narrative:<\/strong> Carlos Alcaraz has taken hold of the top spot in the rankings after an amazing season. He gets a chance to improve his success in Tokyo, but needs to get past Zizou Bergs in their first-ever match.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Check out my top Japan Open predictions for the round of 16, featuring a pick on Brandon Nakashima vs. Marton Fucsovics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Japan Open predictions: Round of 16<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Best bet: Alcaraz\/Bergs under 18.5 games (-117)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is my way of backing Alacaraz while avoiding his -590 price tag to win in straight sets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Spaniard unsurprisingly blew through Sebastian Baez in 18 games in his first match in Tokyo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He’s now 121-29 in his career, and 24-4 in 2025, on hard courts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now Alcaraz faces a similar level of competition in Bergs, who needed two tiebreakers to squeak past Alejandro Tabilo in the first round.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tabilo’s 16-14 record on hardcourts is unimpressive, and he’s coming in losing three of his last five matches.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There’s nothing there to make me think this match will be competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key stat:<\/strong> Alcaraz has an incredible 89% win rate in his service games this season on outdoor hard courts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Full tennis betting markets<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Japan Open best bet: Nakashima vs. Fucsovics<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Fucsovics ML (+104):<\/strong> Fucsovics has the momentum coming into this match.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He’s 40-19 overall this year with an outstanding 18-4 record on hard courts. He needed to qualify for this event, but cruised through both matches, winning every set.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fucsovics then defeated No. 29-ranked Frances Tiafoe in the round of 32. He hasn’t faced the best competition, but that win over the Frenchman proves he has what it takes to beat quality players.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nakahsima falls a tier below Tiafoe, ranking 33rd on tour.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • He’s 30-24 this season with a decent 18-12 record on this playing surface.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
      \n
    • He needed all three sets to get past No. 78 Jordan Thompson in the last round.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      The American has done enough to stay afloat, but he’s fallen short in big matches. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Additionally, Fucsovics is 1-0 vs. Nakashima in his career. That match was contested on an outdoor hard court, and the Hungarian won in straight sets (6-2, 6-4).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Tennis predictions made at 12:25 p.m. on 09\/26\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      The Japan Open has reached the round of 16 and the world’s No. 1-ranked men’s player is in action. The pre-match narrative: Carlos Alcaraz has taken hold of the top spot in the rankings after an amazing season. He gets a chance to improve his success in Tokyo, but needs to get past Zizou Bergs […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":371311,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[129],"class_list":["post-371303","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tennis","tag-tennis-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nJapan Open predictions: 2025 round of 16 picks | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check our 2025 Japan Open predictions for the round of 16. 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