{"id":371079,"date":"2025-09-25T11:36:48","date_gmt":"2025-09-25T15:36:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=371079"},"modified":"2025-09-25T11:36:49","modified_gmt":"2025-09-25T15:36:49","slug":"blue-jays-picks-and-predictions-vs-red-sox-september-25-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/blue-jays-picks-and-predictions-vs-red-sox-september-25-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Red Sox vs. Blue Jays picks and predictions Sept. 25: Fade Bello, buy in on to Guerrero bounce back"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The scuffling Toronto Blue Jays look to get back in the win column in Thursday night&#8217;s series finale against the Boston Red Sox.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Toronto dropped the first two games of this series, and its two-game AL East lead vanished in the process. The Jays will start Louis Varland in a bullpen game in hopes of snapping a 1-6 skid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Red Sox for the Sept. 25 game at Rogers Centre, featuring prop bets on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/brayan_bello\/pitching-stats\">Brayan Bello<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/vladimir_guerrero_jr\/batting-stats\">Vladimir Guerrero Jr.<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/masataka_yoshida\/batting-stats\">Masataka Yoshida<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best bet: Bello under 3.5 Ks (-115)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>My colleague Spencer Closs faded Garrett Crochet&#8217;s strikeouts prop yesterday and cashed, so let&#8217;s go back to that well with Bello on the mound.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Crochet&#8217;s line (6.5) was nearly double what Bello is projected for, but they are different types of pitchers. Crochet leads the AL with an 11.2 K\/9, while Bello&#8217;s K\/9 sits at a paltry 6.7.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Bello has been particularly light on strikeouts this month, accruing just 13 Ks over four starts. He&#8217;s 2-2 vs. this prop, but both overs landed on exactly four Ks.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Toronto has seen plenty of Bello, which should be a boon for the lineup. The Jays have a 20.0 K% against him in 145 plate appearances. For context, the average K rate this year is 22.1%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Bello has a 13th-percentile whiff rate and a 17th-percentile strikeout rate, per Baseball Savant.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Toronto will be a tough matchup for Bello in the strikeout department, and not just because they know the right-hander well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Jays have the lowest K rate in the majors (17.7%), the lowest whiff rate (21.5%) and the highest contact rate on out-of-zone pitches.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After Crochet went 8.0 innings last night, the Red Sox have a rested bullpen. They could opt for a quick hook on Bello, which would only serve to lessen his strikeout opportunities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Bello had just one strikeout in his lone start vs. the Blue Jays this season (6.0 IP, eight hits, three runs).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"acqonly_on\"><a href=\"cacheembed:118355\">Embed: #118355<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\">Full MLB betting markets<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\">MLB injury report<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\">MLB stats &amp; standings<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Jays prop predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (+108):<\/strong> Guerrero is 0-for-6 in this series, but his track record against Bello has me interested in buying a turnaround.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Guerrero is 11-for-27 (.407) with two home runs and four doubles vs. Bello.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Vladdy is 7-3 against this prop in Bello&#8217;s 10 career starts when facing Toronto.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>After batting 21-for-41 (.512) in his first 10 games this month, Guerrero is 7-for-41 (.171) in his past 11. It&#8217;s time for the pendulum to swing back the other way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Guerrero still boasts a 100th-percentile xBA (.320) and a 93rd-percentile xSLG (.530).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Yoshida over 1.5 bases (+128), over 0.5 RBI (+170)<\/strong>: I was a day early backing Yoshida to notch an RBI in Tuesday&#8217;s series opener. He had an RBI double and a solo homer last night.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That continued a torrid stretch for the cleanup hitter, who still has value on both of these prop markets Thursday. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yoshida is batting .406 over his past eight games, notching six multi-hit performances. He&#8217;s 7-1 vs. his bases prop and 6-2 vs. this RBI prop in that span.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With a sub-.400 SLG on the season, I don&#8217;t expect this hot streak to last for long. But while it&#8217;s here, I think these are playable prices to back the designated hitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Blue Jays picks made at 11:30 a.m. ET on 09\/25\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The scuffling Toronto Blue Jays look to get back in the win column in Thursday night&#8217;s series finale against the Boston Red Sox. The pregame narrative: Toronto dropped the first two games of this series, and its two-game AL East lead vanished in the process. The Jays will start Louis Varland in a bullpen game [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":371116,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-371079","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox: Sept. 25 MLB betting | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Blue Jays picks vs. the Red Sox on Sept. 25, 2025. 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