{"id":370806,"date":"2025-09-22T15:01:23","date_gmt":"2025-09-22T19:01:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=370806"},"modified":"2025-09-22T15:01:23","modified_gmt":"2025-09-22T19:01:23","slug":"nfl-week-4-upset-picks-and-predictions-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/nfl-week-4-upset-picks-and-predictions-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Week 4 upset picks: Undefeated Buccaneers headline Sunday&#8217;s top underdog bets"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The undefeated Tampa Bay Buccaneers headline this week&#8217;s upset picks. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The pregame narrative<\/strong>: Baker Mayfield and Co. are rolling, but they sit as 3-point home underdogs against the Philadelphia Eagles as of Monday afternoon. The Eagles narrowly escaped as home favourites last week and have lost back-to-back games against the Bucs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Check out my top Week 4 NFL upset picks, featuring a pick on the Tennessee Titans against the Houston Texans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-0a4ee124-09d4-4260-81c9-fd6fe232dbb3\">NFL upset picks: Week 4<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-479767b6-5872-497b-ac44-239c07c7e3d5\"><strong>Best bet: Buccaneers moneyline (+128)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It&#8217;s time to put some respect on the Buccaneers&#8217; name.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tampa Bay is 9-2 since its Week 11 bye last season, with the losses coming by a combined six points. In that span, the squad is averaging a blistering 28.6 PPG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You could argue that the Bucs haven&#8217;t beaten a quality opponent yet this season, with wins over the Atlanta Falcons, Houston Texans, and New York Jets (combined 1-8 record).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And maybe that&#8217;s true, but I want to focus on the positives. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Mayfield has been stellar:<\/strong> The veteran signal-caller is averaging 243.6 yards of offence per game with six passing touchdowns and no interceptions.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Elite run defence:<\/strong> Led by Vita Vea, Tampa Bay allows the fifth-fewest yards per rush and ranks first in defensive EPA per rush (-0.353), per RBSDM.com.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Philadelphia loves to pound the rock, topping the league in run play percentage (54.10%), so it will be interesting to see which side wins out in the trenches.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Eagles have barely scraped by this season, needing a last-second blocked field goal to down the Los Angeles Rams at home in Week 3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key stat<\/strong>: Tampa Bay is 6-1 in its last seven games against Philadelphia, beating the Eagles 33-16 in Week 4 last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"cacheembed:118291\">Embed: #118291<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/american_football?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_nfl\">Full NFL markets<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nfl\/standingshttps:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nfl?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_nfl\">NFL player &amp; team stats<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/nfl-injury-report\"><strong>NFL injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-fa134a48-a478-432b-95e0-66881f0d337b\">NFL underdog predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Titans moneyline (+290):<\/strong> Houston, we have a problem. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Was C.J. Stroud&#8217;s rookie season a complete fraud? It&#8217;s starting to look that way. The third-year quarterback has been horrible so far, ranking 20th or worse in several major statistical categories:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>64.0% completion percentage (20th)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>199.7 passing yards\/game (25th)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>40.0 QBR (26th)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He&#8217;s also taken the sixth-most sacks (seven), and Houston&#8217;s offensive line ranks 24th in pass block win rate (56%). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Titans are also bad, mind you, which is why they&#8217;re touchdown underdogs against a winless team.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But I can&#8217;t get behind the Texans in any capacity right now, and think this is a solid spot to back the 2025 No. 1 overall pick, Cam Ward, who is searching for his first win. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>NFL upset picks made at 2:47 p.m. ET on 09\/22\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The undefeated Tampa Bay Buccaneers headline this week&#8217;s upset picks. The pregame narrative: Baker Mayfield and Co. are rolling, but they sit as 3-point home underdogs against the Philadelphia Eagles as of Monday afternoon. The Eagles narrowly escaped as home favourites last week and have lost back-to-back games against the Bucs. Check out my top [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":370814,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[61],"tags":[181],"class_list":["post-370806","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nfl","tag-nfl"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>NFL upset picks: 2025 Week 4 underdog predictions | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our 2025 Week 4 NFL upset picks. 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