{"id":370731,"date":"2025-09-22T10:36:45","date_gmt":"2025-09-22T14:36:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=370731"},"modified":"2025-09-22T10:36:46","modified_gmt":"2025-09-22T14:36:46","slug":"brewers-vs-padres-predictions-september-22-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/brewers-vs-padres-predictions-september-22-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Brewers vs. Padres SGP predictions Sept. 22: Look for Peralta to keep San Diego&#8217;s Tatis in check"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Two playoff-bound teams from the National League meet on Monday night, as the San Diego Padres open a home series against the Milwaukee Brewers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Technically, the Padres aren&#8217;t a lock for the postseason yet. But a win tonight would change that. Milwaukee clinched the NL Central title \u2014 and a first-round bye \u2014 on Sunday. Given that the stakes are much higher for the Padres, they&#8217;re favoured over Freddy Peralta and the Brewers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my Brewers vs. Padres SGP <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNTc4NzU5JnA9MjM3Njk%3D\">predictions<\/a> for Sept. 22, featuring a prop bets on Fernando Tatis Jr. and Christian Yelich.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Brewers vs. Padres predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNTc4NzU5JnA9MjM3Njk%3D\">Parlay<\/a>: Padres under 3.5 runs | Tatis under 1.5 bases | Yelich over 0.5 hits (+285)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNTc4NzU5JnA9MjM3Njk%3D\">Padres under 3.5 runs (-114)<\/a>:<\/strong> This could be a hangover game for the Brewers, who were popping bottles in St. Louis yesterday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But one man I don&#8217;t expect to be hurting is Peralta, as he looks to put a bow on his strongest season yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The right-hander&#8217;s 2.65 ERA and 5.4 bWAR are the best of his eight-year career. He also leads the NL in wins (17), if you&#8217;re into that sort of thing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And from August onward, Peralta has been the most dominant version of himself on the mound:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>8 starts<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>1.43 ERA<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>12.5 K\/9<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>In that span, Peralta has allowed one or zero runs seven times. His opponents&#8217; average full-game total is 2.6 runs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Back in June, Peralta held the Padres to one hit over 6.0 scoreless innings. Their lineup is just 8-for-64 (.125) with 24 strikeouts against him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>San Diego has also gone under a 3.5-run total in eight of its past 12 games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB stats &amp; standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:118272\">Embed: #118272<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">More SGP picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNTc4NzU5JnA9MjM3Njk%3D\">Tatis under 1.5 total bases (-177)<\/a>:<\/strong> Tatis hasn&#8217;t been able to crack the code against Peralta yet, albeit in a small sample. Still, I want to fade the leadoff man in this matchup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In his past meetings with Peralta, Tatis is 0-for-6 with five strikeouts and a 60.0% whiff rate, per Baseball Savant. That&#8217;s a lot of incorrect guesses from the three-time all-star.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is as much a way to back Peralta as it is to fade Tatis, but the under on this prop has been hitting at a decent rate lately.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In his past 20 games, Tatis has gone under 1.5 bases 12 times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNTc4NzU5JnA9MjM3Njk%3D\">Yelich over 0.5 hits (-186)<\/a>:<\/strong> We&#8217;ll need to see the lineup first to know if Yelich is even playing, as veterans sometimes get a recovery day following a playoff-clinching celebration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Given that Yelich was off Sunday, though, I expect him to slot back in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The designated hitter is 15-6 vs. this prop in his past 21 starts, batting .287 in that span. Not otherworldly, but pretty darn good.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He also has a solid history against Padres starter Nick Pivetta, batting 6-for-16 with two homers and two doubles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yelich is batting .296 since the start of August, and his .293 xBA indicates that that&#8217;s not a fluke.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Brewers vs. Padres predictions made at 9:50 a.m. ET on 09\/22\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking to get started? <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNzQxMyZsPTEzNTI3NDExJnA9MjMyNDM%3D\">Sign up here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Two playoff-bound teams from the National League meet on Monday night, as the San Diego Padres open a home series against the Milwaukee Brewers. The pregame narrative: Technically, the Padres aren&#8217;t a lock for the postseason yet. But a win tonight would change that. Milwaukee clinched the NL Central title \u2014 and a first-round bye [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":370736,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-370731","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Brewers vs. Padres predictions: Sept. 22 MLB SGP | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Brewers vs. Padres predictions for Sept. 22, 2025. 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