{"id":370643,"date":"2025-09-21T11:21:30","date_gmt":"2025-09-21T15:21:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=370643"},"modified":"2025-09-21T11:21:31","modified_gmt":"2025-09-21T15:21:31","slug":"blue-jays-picks-and-predictions-vs-royals-september-21","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/blue-jays-picks-and-predictions-vs-royals-september-21\/","title":{"rendered":"Blue Jays vs. Royals picks and predictions Sept. 21: Fade offence in series finale"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The Toronto Blue Jays need a win today to avoid a three-game sweep in their final road series of the regular season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> After a pair of losses to the Kansas City Royals, the Jays are no longer in a very comfortable spot atop the American League standings. But with a two-game lead in the AL East and a three-game cushion for a bye, Toronto is still in pole position.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Royals for the Sept. 21 game at Kauffman Stadium, featuring a prop prediction on Mike Yastrzemski.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Blue Jays picks vs. Royals<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/baseball\/competitions\/10065\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging\"><strong>MLB player stats<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/standings\/division\"><strong>MLB standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best bet: Under 9 runs (-138)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Blue Jays have thrown their top pitching prospect, Trey Yesavage, right into the fire known as an MLB playoff race. He excelled in his first start, and I&#8217;m hoping for more of the same on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After working a 3.22 ERA across four minor league levels this season, Yesavage took a five-inning no-decision in a 2-1 win last Monday over the Tampa Bay Rays.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If he continues his strong form today, great. But if not, the Blue Jays should have ample support behind him, with a bullpen that includes a pair of rested high-leverage relievers and a recently demoted Jose Berrios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Toronto has the highest overs rate in MLB (84-65-6, 56.4%), per Team Rankings, but there are other factors to consider here:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Most of Toronto&#8217;s high-scoring games come at Rogers Centre. On the road, the Blue Jays hit the over 52.6% of the time (10th in MLB).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Kansas City has MLB&#8217;s highest unders rate at home (62.0%), as well as the fourth-highest unders rate overall (56.2%).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Blue Jays&#8217; offence has a 72 wRC+ in the past two weeks, which ranks 25th in MLB. In this series, the Jays have just two runs on seven hits in 18 innings.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Michael Wacha starts for the Royals after a truly miserable outing on Sept. 16 against the blazing hot Seattle Mariners (2.2 IP, nine hits, seven runs). Before that, he&#8217;d been lights out for a while.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In a 10-start stretch from July 11 through Sept. 5, Wacha had a 2.79 ERA and a .224 opponent batting average. The average total in those games was 7.9 runs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> In Wacha&#8217;s past 15 starts, this under is 10-5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Jays prop prediction<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Yastrzemski under 0.5 hits (+105)<\/strong>: Simply put, Yastrzemski is a struggling hitter who doesn&#8217;t profile well against Yesavage&#8217;s pitch mix.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Royals outfielder is 7-for-56 (.125) in his past 18 games. He has gone hitless in 10 of 16 starts during that span.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Yesavage&#8217;s two secondary pitches are splitters and sliders. Against RHPs throwing those pitches, Yastrzemski is 3-for-17 (.176).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Yastrzemski is a platoon player as it is, with aggressive righty\/lefty splits (.247 BA vs. righties, .138 BA vs. lefties). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He&#8217;ll likely be lifted from the game if the Blue Jays bring in a lefty reliever, which means he should have less than a full game&#8217;s worth of opportunities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Blue Jays picks made at 11:20 a.m. ET on 09\/21\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Toronto Blue Jays need a win today to avoid a three-game sweep in their final road series of the regular season. The pregame narrative: After a pair of losses to the Kansas City Royals, the Jays are no longer in a very comfortable spot atop the American League standings. But with a two-game lead [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":370547,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-370643","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Blue Jays picks vs. Royals: Sept. 21 MLB betting | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Blue Jays picks vs. the Royals on Sept. 21, 2025. 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