{"id":370262,"date":"2025-09-20T11:34:55","date_gmt":"2025-09-20T15:34:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=370262"},"modified":"2025-09-20T11:34:56","modified_gmt":"2025-09-20T15:34:56","slug":"mlb-prop-bets-and-predictions-september-20-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-prop-bets-and-predictions-september-20-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Best MLB prop bets Sept. 20: Back Bryce Harper, Framber Valdez, Taylor Ward"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Two sluggers and one starting pitcher contribute to Saturday&#8217;s MLB prop bets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-d0873b89-4dfa-47d6-9954-56140c451c77\"><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB props narrative<\/strong>: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/bryce_harper\/batting-stats\">Bryce Harper<\/a> is my main target at plus-money because of his matchup. Elsewhere, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/taylor_ward\/batting-stats\">Taylor Ward<\/a> has a good shot at mashing for the Los Angeles Angels at Coors Field. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-d0873b89-4dfa-47d6-9954-56140c451c77\">Check out my top MLB prop bets for Sept. 20, featuring predictions on Harper, Ward and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/framber_valdez\/pitching-stats\">Framber Valdez<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-22b3784f-32c2-400a-beef-1578a991be49\">MLB prop bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-0c59b741-4781-48d8-8ffa-d93f8ee90c10\"><strong>Best bet:<strong> Harper over 1.5 total bases (+112)<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Harper may not be playing at an MVP level this season, but his stats are still top-tier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>He has an 85th-percentile xBA (.282) and 91st-percentile xSLG (.522), per Baseball Savant.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Plus, he&#8217;s raking over his last 10 games with a .324 batting average and 1.136 OPS. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>That all goes before mentioning his stats against Arizona Diamondbacks&#8217; starter Zac Gallen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Harper is 10-for-20 off Gallen with two home runs in his career.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The righty is having a down year with a 4.73 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, and I expect the all-star slugger to do damage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-13bf476e-3f27-4d52-86f2-70dff07fd638\"><strong>Key stat<\/strong>: Harper is 7-3 against this line in his past 10 games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:118191\">Embed: #118191<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul id=\"block-10146156-2d6b-49a8-b097-37743fd550b5\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB stats &amp; standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-ebade6eb-0e6a-4675-8cbc-3a4396c11ac4\">Best MLB picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Valdez over 17.5 outs (-118)<\/strong>: In terms of stats, Valdez has been struggling over recent starts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>His last 10 games have not been pretty, but it hasn&#8217;t hindered his ability to work deep into ball games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Valdez is 2-8 over those starts with a 5.31 ERA.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Despite that, he&#8217;s 6-4 against this line.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The bright side is that his FIP of 3.79 during that time is much lower than his actual ERA. That stat measures a pitcher&#8217;s effectiveness at limiting base runners and getting Ks, independent of field conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Valdez has thrown 85 or more pitches in 27 of his 29 starts this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Ward over 1.5 total bases (-113)<\/strong>: Ward is an all-or-nothing hitter, but that&#8217;s something to take advantage of at Coors Field.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>He pairs his high strikeout rate with an 84th-percentile barrel rate.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>His .462 SLG is well above the MLB average. He also leads the Angels with 261 total bases this year.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Ward certainly has pop, and he can take advantage of the Rockies&#8217; starting German Marquez.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Marquez has the third-worst ERA in the majors among pitchers with over 100 innings pitched (6.73).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He gives up 1.49 HR\/9 and continuously gets rocked when playing on the road or in Colorado.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But his .937 OPS allowed at Coors Field is definitely something I want to take advantage of.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-571cf986-8d14-4776-b519-20fa27d04fec\"><em>MLB prop picks made at 11:17 a.m. ET on 09\/20\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Two sluggers and one starting pitcher contribute to Saturday&#8217;s MLB prop bets. Today&#8217;s MLB props narrative: Bryce Harper is my main target at plus-money because of his matchup. Elsewhere, Taylor Ward has a good shot at mashing for the Los Angeles Angels at Coors Field. Check out my top MLB prop bets for Sept. 20, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":370327,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[130,10],"class_list":["post-370262","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB prop bets Sept. 20: Picks, predictions &amp; odds | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB prop bets for Sept. 20, 2025. 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