{"id":370122,"date":"2025-09-21T10:58:43","date_gmt":"2025-09-21T14:58:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=370122"},"modified":"2025-09-21T10:58:43","modified_gmt":"2025-09-21T14:58:43","slug":"mlb-prop-bets-and-predictions-september-21-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-prop-bets-and-predictions-september-21-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Best MLB prop bets Sept. 21: Bet overs on Ranger Suarez, Andrew Abbott"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>I&#8217;m targeting a pair of southpaws as part of Sunday&#8217;s MLB prop bets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-d0873b89-4dfa-47d6-9954-56140c451c77\"><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB props narrative<\/strong>: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/ranger_suarez\/pitching-stats\">Ranger Suarez<\/a>&#8216;s strikeouts prop is set at 4.5, which seems modest relative to his output this season. Suarez should fare well against the Arizona Diamondbacks, while I expect Reds lefty <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/andrew_abbott\/pitching-stats\">Andrew Abbott<\/a> to give his team some length vs. the Chicago Cubs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-d0873b89-4dfa-47d6-9954-56140c451c77\">Check out my top MLB prop bets for Sept. 21, featuring a prediction on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/brandon_nimmo\/batting-stats\">Brandon Nimmo<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-22b3784f-32c2-400a-beef-1578a991be49\">MLB prop bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-0c59b741-4781-48d8-8ffa-d93f8ee90c10\"><strong>Best bet:<strong> Abbott over 16.5 outs (-105)<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Abbott&#8217;s promising career has gotten better with each passing season, and I&#8217;m hoping he can put a bow on an impressive Year 3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The 26-year-old has a sub-3.00 ERA through 27 starts, which includes three solid-or-better outings against the Cubs (today&#8217;s opponent):<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>May 24:<\/strong> 5.2 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 2 K<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>May 30:<\/strong> 7.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 8 K<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Aug. 6:<\/strong> 6.2 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 3 K<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Abbott is 3-0 vs. this prop bet when facing the Cubs in 2025, averaging 19.3 outs in those starts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He isn&#8217;t always called upon to work deep, but it&#8217;s not like the Reds are treating him with kid gloves. He has thrown 95+ pitches in 16 of his 27 starts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I was initially looking at Abbott&#8217;s strikeout prop, which sits at plus money to the over on 4.5 Ks. He has cashed that bet in seven consecutive starts but is just 1-2 on that line vs. Chicago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Cubs are a low-strikeout team, with the sixth-lowest K rate in MLB. Their ability to put the ball in play could help Abbott keep his pitch count in check.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cincinnati still has plenty to play for, too, which I think works in Abbott&#8217;s favour.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Reds are one game out of a wild-card spot. If Abbott is rolling, I wouldn&#8217;t expect him to get a quick hook \u2014 especially since the team&#8217;s setup man and closer both pitched in the first two games of this series.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-13bf476e-3f27-4d52-86f2-70dff07fd638\"><strong>Key stat<\/strong>: Abbott has held the Cubs&#8217; active lineup to a .209 batting average and a sub-.400 SLG in 91 at-bats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:118223\">Embed: #118223<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul id=\"block-10146156-2d6b-49a8-b097-37743fd550b5\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB stats &amp; standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-ebade6eb-0e6a-4675-8cbc-3a4396c11ac4\">Best MLB picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Nimmo over 0.5 RBI (+138)<\/strong>: Nimmo is a cleanup man hitting in front of three scorching hitters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Over the past week, the trio of Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto and Pete Alonso all have an OPS of .993 or above and a wRC+ of 163 or above.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If those guys can continue to find ways on base, I like Nimmo&#8217;s opportunity to bring someone home.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Nimmo is 7-for-20 (.350) with a pair of home runs vs. Nationals starter Jake Irvin.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Irvin has been getting shelled recently, coughing up 44 runs over 42.0 innings in his past nine starts.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>In three starts vs. the Mets this year, Irvin has allowed 25 baserunners and 11 runs in 18.1 IP.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Nimmo is 3-0 vs. this prop in Irvin&#8217;s three starts against the Mets. He&#8217;s also 5-4 vs. this prop in his past nine games overall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Suarez over 4.5 Ks (-112)<\/strong>: Suarez was chased early in his lone start against the Diamondbacks, but he still managed to strike out six batters over 3.2 innings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ideally, he can stick around for longer in today&#8217;s outing, and if so, I really like his chances to cash this bet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>He&#8217;s averaging 6.0 Ks per start this year (145 strikeouts in 24 starts).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Suarez has 5+ Ks in 18 of 24 outings.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>In three starts vs. the Diamondbacks since 2023, Suarez is 3-0 vs. this prop.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Suarez has collected 10+ Ks in three of his past six starts, so his ceiling as a strikeout generator is quite high. This really isn&#8217;t a significant total for him to clear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-571cf986-8d14-4776-b519-20fa27d04fec\"><em>MLB prop picks made at 10:45 a.m. ET on 09\/21\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I&#8217;m targeting a pair of southpaws as part of Sunday&#8217;s MLB prop bets. Today&#8217;s MLB props narrative: Ranger Suarez&#8216;s strikeouts prop is set at 4.5, which seems modest relative to his output this season. Suarez should fare well against the Arizona Diamondbacks, while I expect Reds lefty Andrew Abbott to give his team some length [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":370572,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-370122","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB prop bets Sept. 21: Picks, predictions &amp; odds | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB prop bets for Sept. 21, 2025. 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