{"id":369844,"date":"2025-09-18T15:08:32","date_gmt":"2025-09-18T19:08:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=369844"},"modified":"2025-09-18T15:08:32","modified_gmt":"2025-09-18T19:08:32","slug":"nfl-td-picks-and-predictions-week-3-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/nfl-td-picks-and-predictions-week-3-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Week 3 TD picks and predictions: Target Ja&#8217;Marr Chase, Keenan Allen on Sunday"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>A pair of All-Pro wide receivers is the focus of my Week 3 touchdown picks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative<\/strong>: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nfl\/player-stats\/ja_marr_chase\">Ja&#8217;Marr Chase<\/a> lost his starting quarterback last Sunday, but it doesn&#8217;t seem like it&#8217;ll have a negative effect on his production. After that, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nfl\/player-stats\/keenan_allen\">Keenan Allen<\/a> has value to score in his third straight game for the Los Angeles Chargers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my top Week 3 NFL TD picks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-0a4ee124-09d4-4260-81c9-fd6fe232dbb3\">NFL TD picks: Week <strong>3<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-479767b6-5872-497b-ac44-239c07c7e3d5\"><strong>Best bet: Chase anytime TD (+132)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The NFL&#8217;s best receiver demands targets no matter who&#8217;s throwing him the ball.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out his splits with Joe Burrow and Jake Browning in Week 2:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>With Burrow:<\/strong> four receptions (26.4% target share)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>With Browning:<\/strong> 10 receptions (34.4% target share)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Browning isn&#8217;t the arm talent Burrow is, and that leads to a lot of short and medium throws, which is the area Chase excels in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Chase is also a dangerous threat in the red zone. He&#8217;s been targeting three times inside 15 yards this season and caught all three passes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He has just one TD so far, but with that volume, he should easily get that number up closer to the 17 TD passes he caught in 2024. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Only three other players have been targeted three or more times inside 15 yards this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That gives me hope for Chase even without Burrow, and this line reflects an injured QB. But Browning is arguably better for the star wideout&#8217;s production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat<\/strong>: Chase led the NFL with 33 red zone targets last season and was one of two players to have 25 or more targets inside 20 yards. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:118086\">Embed: #118086<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/american_football?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_nfl\">Full NFL markets<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nfl\/standingshttps:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nfl?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_nfl\">NFL player &amp; team stats<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/nfl-injury-report\"><strong>NFL injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-fa134a48-a478-432b-95e0-66881f0d337b\">Best NFL touchdown bets<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Allen anytime TD (+230): <\/strong>Allen, unsurprisingly, has fit like a glove rejoining the Chargers&#8217; offence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Through two games, Allen has 12 receptions for 129 yards and two touchdowns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>More importantly, he&#8217;s been targeted by Justin Herbert twice in the red zone and has caught both passes for scores.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What is surprising is that Allen leads the Chargers in targets this season (17) over Ladd McConkey (14), who was thought to be the clear-cut No. 1 option in L.A.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I still think McConkey will finish the season with the better stats, but Allen will play a significant role in this offence, especially near the end zone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And because of that, I believe there is good value on Allen at +230 when teammates like McConkey (+160) and Quentin Johnston (+225) have shorter odds to score.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Denver Broncos have a good defence, but just gave up 29 points to Daniel Jones and the Indianapolis Colts on the road.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>NFL TD picks made at 2:35 p.m. ET on 09\/18\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A pair of All-Pro wide receivers is the focus of my Week 3 touchdown picks. The pregame narrative: Ja&#8217;Marr Chase lost his starting quarterback last Sunday, but it doesn&#8217;t seem like it&#8217;ll have a negative effect on his production. After that, Keenan Allen has value to score in his third straight game for the Los [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":369857,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[61],"tags":[181,14],"class_list":["post-369844","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nfl","tag-nfl","tag-nfl-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>NFL TD picks: 2025 Week 3 best bets and predictions | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our 2025 Week 3 NFL TD picks. 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