{"id":369524,"date":"2025-09-17T11:54:08","date_gmt":"2025-09-17T15:54:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=369524"},"modified":"2025-09-17T11:54:08","modified_gmt":"2025-09-17T15:54:08","slug":"dolphins-vs-bills-week-3-tnf-sgp-predictions-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/dolphins-vs-bills-week-3-tnf-sgp-predictions-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Dolphins vs. Bills TNF Week 3 SGP predictions: Bet on Kincaid to produce, Buffalo to roll at home"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>NFL Week 3 begins with an AFC East battle between the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Buffalo earned a comfortable win in Week 2 and is a heavy home favourite over a downtrodden Miami team. The Dolphins haven&#8217;t won in Western New York since 2016.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my Dolphins vs. Bills same-game parlay predictions for Week 3 below, featuring <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nfl\/player-stats\/dalton_kincaid\">Dalton Kincaid<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nfl\/player-stats\/tua_tagovailoa\">Tua Tagovailoa<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dolphins vs. Bills SGP predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>SGP: Bills -6.5 | Kincaid over 30.5 rec. yards | Tagovailoa 1+ INTs (+280)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong>Bills -6.5 <\/strong>(-250):<\/strong> Buffalo and Miami have gotten off to utterly opposite starts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Bills are 2-0 with a +21 point differential. That includes a remarkable comeback win over the Ravens in Week 1 after trailing by 15 in the fourth quarter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Dolphins, meanwhile, are 0-2 with an AFC-worst -31 point differential. After digging a 30-0 hole against the Colts in Week 1, Miami lost as home favourites vs. the Patriots last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In their recent head-to-head history, the Bills have absolutely dominated the Dolphins. Buffalo is 9-1 SU against Miami since January 2021, and the Bills have covered a -6.5 spread in three of four meetings over the two previous seasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since the start of the 2022 season, the Bills are 26-4 at home with a 12.5-point average victory margin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:118051\">Embed: #118051<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/american_football?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_nfl\">Full NFL markets<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nfl\/standingshttps:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nfl?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_nfl\">NFL player &amp; team stats<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/nfl-injury-report\"><strong>NFL injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Thursday Night Football SGP picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong><strong><strong>Kincaid over 30.5 receiving yards<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong> (-108):<\/strong> Buffalo spreads the ball around, which can make it difficult to target anyone individually for a high-ceiling output. In Week 1 alone, nine Bills caught at least one pass.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fortunately, we don&#8217;t need a massive game from Kincaid to cash this leg of the SGP. And his floor seems plenty high enough.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Kincaid has eight catches for 85 yards and a TD through two games. He&#8217;s 2-0 vs. this prop.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>In his career vs. Miami, Kincaid has averaged 44.0 receiving yards over four games. He had at least four catches in each of those matchups.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Dawson Knox has a slight lead over Kincaid in total snaps, but not all snaps yield the same opportunity. Kincaid is clearly the No. 1 TE option in the receiving game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to RotoWire, Kincaid has participated in 63% of the Bills&#8217; routes, while Knox&#8217;s route participation is just 45%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong><strong><strong>Tagovailoa to throw an interception<\/strong> <\/strong><\/strong>(-162):<\/strong> Buffalo hasn&#8217;t nabbed an interception yet, but I say that changes this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tagovailoa already has three interceptions through two games. He was miserable in Miami&#8217;s first road game of the year (at Indianapolis):<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>14-for-23 passing<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>114 yards<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>5.0 yards\/attempt<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2 INTs<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>In 30 career road games, Tagovailoa has 28 interceptions. He&#8217;ll likely have to throw a lot in a game where his squad is a 12.5-point underdog.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since the start of 2023, Tagovailoa has six INTs in four starts vs. Buffalo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Dolphins vs. Billd predictions made at 11:15 a.m. on 09\/17\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>NFL Week 3 begins with an AFC East battle between the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills. The pregame narrative: Buffalo earned a comfortable win in Week 2 and is a heavy home favourite over a downtrodden Miami team. The Dolphins haven&#8217;t won in Western New York since 2016. Check out my Dolphins vs. Bills [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":369539,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[61],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-369524","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nfl","tag-nfl-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Dolphins vs. Bills predictions: 2025 TNF SGP | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our 2025 Week 3 Dolphins vs. Bills SGP predictions. 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