MLB standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\nBest bet: Gilbert over 5.5 strikeouts (-120)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nGilbert has the No. 1 strikeout rate in MLB among pitchers who have thrown 100-plus innings. He routinely blows past this line and is shattering his career-best K rate. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Getting him on a 5.5 line is almost unheard of, but his opponent is the reason for that. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Royals have the lowest K rate in MLB in the second half and are one of only three teams to strike out in fewer than 20% of their plate appearances vs. righties this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it\u2019s not like Gilbert is getting cakewalks every start. Kansas City is a difficult team to retire on strikes, but I expect one of MLB\u2019s premier arms to once again reach this number. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Here\u2019s why: <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n- Gilbert has topped this line in 19 of 22 starts, good for a dynamite 86% success rate. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
\n- He provides length, throwing six-plus innings in four of his last six outings, going 5-1 vs. this number over that stretch.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
\n- Gilbert gets the Royals at Kauffman Stadium, a home run-suppressing park. The righty has struggled a bit with homers, so this is a plus that will ideally limit a big inning.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
\n- The Royals aren\u2019t a great offensive team, ranking 25th in on-base percentage and 26th in wRC+. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
This feels like another six-inning start for Gilbert. With that workload, I\u2019ll play him at this number against any team.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Key stat<\/strong>: Gilbert struck out seven Royals over 4.2 innings in July.<\/p>\n\n\n\nBest MLB picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Rodriguez over 15.5 outs (-120)<\/strong>: Rodriguez isn\u2019t the most trustworthy arm going, but I like him at this line.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\nHe has seven-inning upside and gets the San Francisco Giants, whom he silenced in his last outing. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Giants have been swinging good sticks in the second half but hit right-handers significantly better. Against southpaws, they\u2019re last in MLB in batting average and OBP, and rank 27th in wRC+.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n- Rodriguez fired 6.1 scoreless innings against them last week, allowing two hits and striking out six. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
\n- It marked the third straight start Rodriguez has topped 15.5 outs, and the sixth time in seven outings.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
\n- While Rodriguez has struggled at home this season (5.28 ERA), he has cleared this number in four consecutive starts at Arizona\u2019s Chase Field.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
Moniak over 0.5 runs (+105)<\/strong>: Miami Marlins righty Eury Perez has had some nice moments in his sophomore season but is struggling to close out the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\nPerez has been terrible on the road (6.44 ERA) and faces the most daunting venue in the game tonight: Coors Field.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I like Moniak to take advantage of the platoon advantage and his home park, both of which he’s done this season. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n- The left-handed hitting Moniak is slugging more than 200 points greater vs. righties, and he’s slashing .303\/.349\/.583 at home. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
\n- He’s batting .317 this month, getting on base at a .364 clip.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
Moniak, who has generally been in the No. 2 spot of the lineup, has pop, too. He’s slugging .509 with a career-best 46 extra-base hits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Following Perez, Colorado will see Miami’s 26th-ranked bullpen in terms of second-half ERA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
MLB prop picks made at 11:55 a.m. ET on 09\/16\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Seattle Mariners ace Logan Gilbert is featured as the top MLB prop pick for Tuesday’s baseball slate. Today’s MLB props narrative: Gilbert has been piling up strikeouts and I expect that to continue tonight despite a challenging matchup against the Kansas City Royals. Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Sept. 16, featuring predictions […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":369427,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[130],"class_list":["post-369461","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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