{"id":369363,"date":"2025-09-16T14:31:18","date_gmt":"2025-09-16T18:31:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=369363"},"modified":"2025-09-17T10:12:51","modified_gmt":"2025-09-17T14:12:51","slug":"dolphins-vs-bills-week-3-thursday-night-football-picks-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/dolphins-vs-bills-week-3-thursday-night-football-picks-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Dolphins vs. Bills Week 3 Thursday Night Football picks: Bet on Buffalo, Josh Allen to rout Miami"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Two AFC East teams heading in different directions battle on Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> It wasn&#8217;t long ago that the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills played for the division to close out the 2023 season. Buffalo won and is 15-4 since, while Miami is 8-11. The Dolphins have gotten shelled in both games to start the year and are double-digit underdogs on TNF.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Check out my Dolphins vs. Bills picks for Thursday Night Football Week 3 on Sept. 18, featuring a parlay on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nfl\/player-stats\/josh_allen\">Josh Allen<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nfl\/player-stats\/de_von_achane\">De&#8217;Von Achane<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dolphins vs. Bills picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Best Bet: Bills over 30.5 points (-124)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is an outrageously high team total, but Miami has played some outrageously bad football. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Dolphins have given up 33 points in consecutive games to the Daniel Jones-led Indianapolis Colts and the Drake Maye-led New England Patriots. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For context on how bad that is, the New York Giants averaged 15.6 PPG under Jones last year, while Maye&#8217;s Patriots averaged 17.9 PPG in games where he started and finished.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That&#8217;s 33.5 points <em>combined<\/em>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Heading to Orchard Park to take on Allen and the Bills in prime time is a different animal. I wouldn&#8217;t be surprised if Buffalo flirted with a 50-burger on Thursday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Bills scored 41 points in their season-opener at home against the Baltimore Ravens&#8217; vaunted defence.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Dating back to Week 1 of 2024, Buffalo is 11-0 at home (regular season and playoffs) while averaging 33.9 PPG. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Miami&#8217;s defence ranks dead last in EPA per play through two games, per RBSDM.com.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/american_football?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_nfl\">Full NFL markets<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nfl\/standingshttps:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nfl?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_nfl\">NFL player &amp; team stats<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/nfl-injury-report\"><strong>NFL injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Thursday Night Football parlay pick<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Allen over 1.5 passing TDs &amp; Achane 20+ receiving yards (-110):<\/strong> I was considering simply recommending Allen over 1.5 passing TDs at -148, but that&#8217;s too much juice for my liking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But the reigning MVP should clear that line with ease against Miami&#8217;s defence. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Allen has averaged 2.05 passing TDs at home since the start of the 2023 season.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>In that span, he is 13-5 against this line. That includes two games against Miami, when he threw seven total TDs.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I&#8217;m adding Achane in as a sweetener to bring this to -110. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Dolphins&#8217; RB caught eight of 10 targets for 92 yards last week and has cleared this line in 13 of 19 games dating back to the start of last season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And in two games against the Bills, he logged 69 and 58 receiving yards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Dolphins vs. Bills<\/em> <em>picks made at 1 p.m. ET 09\/16\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Two AFC East teams heading in different directions battle on Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 3. The pregame narrative: It wasn&#8217;t long ago that the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills played for the division to close out the 2023 season. Buffalo won and is 15-4 since, while Miami is 8-11. The Dolphins have [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":369451,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[61],"tags":[181],"class_list":["post-369363","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nfl","tag-nfl"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Dolphins vs. Bills picks TNF: 2025 NFL Week 3 | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our 2025 Week 3 Dolphins vs. Bills picks. 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