{"id":369362,"date":"2025-09-16T09:44:27","date_gmt":"2025-09-16T13:44:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=369362"},"modified":"2025-09-16T11:42:41","modified_gmt":"2025-09-16T15:42:41","slug":"blue-jays-best-bets-vs-rays-september-16-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/blue-jays-best-bets-vs-rays-september-16-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Blue Jays best bets vs. Rays Sept. 16: Fade Varsho, take Tampa Bay on F5 moneyline"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The Toronto Blue Jays carry a five-game win streak into Tuesday night&#8217;s matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Toronto outlasted Tampa, 2-1, for an 11-inning win last night. Tonight&#8217;s game is a pick&#8217;em, with Jose Berrios getting the ball for the Jays amid some extended struggles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Rays for Sept. 16, including prop picks on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/yandy_diaz\/batting-stats\">Yandy Diaz<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/daulton_varsho\/batting-stats\">Daulton Varsho<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Blue Jays best bets vs. Rays<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best bet: Rays tie no bet \u2014 first five innings (-113)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The landscape of the Blue Jays&#8217; pitching staff has shifted in the past month, with Shane Bieber stepping up and now Trey Yesavage dazzling in his MLB debut (Sept. 15).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Where does that leave Berrios regarding the impending playoff rotation? Likely on the outside looking in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s not like Berrios has earned a more favourable fate. His past 10 starts have been far from desirable:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>5.10 ERA<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>5.45 FIP<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>.294 opponent BA<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>46% hard-hit rate<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The reason for caution with this pick is that Toronto is 6-4 on the F5 moneyline during Berrios&#8217; rough stretch. So it&#8217;s quite possible his offence bails him out &#8230; again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But Ryan Pepiot can prevent that from happening. He&#8217;s on a tear right now, tossing 5.0 shutout innings in three consecutive starts \u2014 with just two hits allowed in that span.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Last time out against Toronto, Pepiot threw 7.0 IP of three-hit, shutout ball. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In limited action against the Jays&#8217; active lineup, Pepiot has held the club to a .279 SLG. And his Rays are 2-0-0 on the F5 moneyline vs. Toronto in his outings this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Berrios has allowed eight earned runs over 11.1 IP vs. Tampa this season. The Blue Jays are 0-2-0 on the F5 moneyline in those games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:118009\">Embed: #118009<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\">Full MLB betting markets<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\">MLB injury report<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\">MLB stats &amp; standings<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Jays prop picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Diaz over 0.5 runs (+110): <\/strong>Diaz is on a killer run over his past 20 games that makes this prop well worth a buy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Since Aug. 21, Diaz has a .395\/.459\/.623 slash line for the Rays, with 14 runs, 10 extra-base hits and an equal total of walks and strikeouts (nine apiece). <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>He is 11-9 vs. his run prop in that span.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Given that I&#8217;m low on Berrios, it makes sense to target someone in Tampa&#8217;s lineup. And Diaz, from the No. 2 spot in the order, should have a great chance to score.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Diaz is 6-for-20 (.300) with a home run, two doubles and a walk against Berrios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Varsho under 0.5 hits (-103):<\/strong> Varsho has a .912 OPS since the start of August. But he&#8217;s also hitless in 16 of 31 starts in that span.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It may be difficult to believe that both of those numbers are accurate, but that&#8217;s the all-or-nothing nature of Varsho&#8217;s offensive profile. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When he connects, the ball goes a mile; it&#8217;s just that he often doesn&#8217;t connect. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, which side of the coin will we see from Varsho tonight? I prefer to fade him against Pepiot, who \u2014 as a reminder \u2014 has only allowed two hits in his past 15.0 innings. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Also, left-handed batters have a .188 BA in their career vs. Pepiot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Blue Jays best bets made at 9:17 a.m. ET on 09\/16\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Toronto Blue Jays carry a five-game win streak into Tuesday night&#8217;s matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays. The pregame narrative: Toronto outlasted Tampa, 2-1, for an 11-inning win last night. Tonight&#8217;s game is a pick&#8217;em, with Jose Berrios getting the ball for the Jays amid some extended struggles. Check out my Blue Jays best [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":369364,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-369362","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Blue Jays best bets vs. Rays: Sept. 16 MLB betting | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Blue Jays best bets vs. Rays for Sept. 16, 2025. 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