{"id":369293,"date":"2025-09-15T13:23:54","date_gmt":"2025-09-15T17:23:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=369293"},"modified":"2025-09-15T13:23:55","modified_gmt":"2025-09-15T17:23:55","slug":"mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-september-15","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-september-15\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB home run picks Sept. 15: Back Aaron Judge, Willy Adames on Monday"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Aaron Judge is in a groove, and headlines Monday&#8217;s MLB home run picks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative:<\/strong> Judge is barreling toward his third AL MVP award and fourth 50-homer season. The New York Yankees star slugger has respectable odds to go deep against Simeon Woods Richardson in Minnesota. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Sept. 15, featuring a pick on Willy Adames.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB home run picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/baseball\/competitions\/10065\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging\"><strong>MLB player stats<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/standings\/division\"><strong>MLB standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best Bet: Judge to hit a home run (+175)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There aren&#8217;t many players you&#8217;ll find with +175 odds to go deep, especially at offence-neutral venues like Target Field.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But Judge is an anomaly in so many ways.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He&#8217;s belted 48 home runs this year, and passed the legendary Joe DiMaggio with his 362nd home run as a Yankee on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Judge added another on Sunday and has now gone deep in four of his last six games. In that stretch, he&#8217;s slashing an absurd .450\/.560\/1.200.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Woods Richardson and Co. would be wise to pitch around Judge, but everyone has tried that, and it seldom works. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The one-time Toronto Blue Jays prospect has struggled this year, posting a 4.58 ERA across 19 starts. He&#8217;s also given up six home runs in his last five outings. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Judge leads MLB in home runs per at-bat (0.10). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best HR predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Adames to hit a home run (+400):<\/strong> Let&#8217;s turn our attention to the West Coast to balance out Judge&#8217;s short odds with a much healthier +400 play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Adames has been on fire during the San Francisco Giants&#8217; playoff push, belting nine home runs over the last 30 days. In that span, his .315 ISO ranks 12th in MLB.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tonight, he gets to go up against Arizona Diamondbacks righty Zac Gallen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The 30-year-old is having a nightmare season, posting career-worsts in ERA (4.84), opponent slugging (.431), and K\/9 rate (8.1).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>His 1.4 HR\/9 rate is tied for his career-worst, too, and is the sixth-highest among qualified pitchers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Adames is just 3-for-24 against Gallen, but two of those hits left the yard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And Adames&#8217; .257 xBA and .595 xSLG in those at-bats indicate he&#8217;s been a bit unlucky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>MLB home run picks made at 12:05 p.m. ET on 09\/15\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Aaron Judge is in a groove, and headlines Monday&#8217;s MLB home run picks. Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative: Judge is barreling toward his third AL MVP award and fourth 50-homer season. The New York Yankees star slugger has respectable odds to go deep against Simeon Woods Richardson in Minnesota. Check out the best MLB home run [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":369273,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[130],"class_list":["post-369293","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB home run picks Sept. 15: Best bets, predictions &amp; odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB home run picks for Sept. 15, 2025. 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