{"id":368848,"date":"2025-09-13T12:26:12","date_gmt":"2025-09-13T16:26:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=368848"},"modified":"2025-09-13T12:26:13","modified_gmt":"2025-09-13T16:26:13","slug":"mlb-prop-bets-and-predictions-september-13","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-prop-bets-and-predictions-september-13\/","title":{"rendered":"Best MLB prop bets Sept. 13: Fade Dylan Cease at plus money, look for Jake Cronenworth to step up"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>For Saturday&#8217;s MLB prop bets, I&#8217;m particularly keyed on the evening matchup between the Colorado Rockies and San Diego Padres.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-d0873b89-4dfa-47d6-9954-56140c451c77\"><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB props narrative<\/strong>: Dylan Cease isn&#8217;t known to work deep into games, which can make a high strikeout total difficult to reach. I&#8217;m fading Cease on Saturday and backing infielder Jake Cronenworth to make his mark at the plate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-d0873b89-4dfa-47d6-9954-56140c451c77\">Check out my top MLB prop bets for Sept. 13, featuring a prediction on Pete Alonso.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-22b3784f-32c2-400a-beef-1578a991be49\">MLB prop bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/baseball\/competitions\/10065\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging\"><strong>MLB player stats<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/standings\/division\"><strong>MLB standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-0c59b741-4781-48d8-8ffa-d93f8ee90c10\"><strong>Best bet: Alonso over 1.5 total bases (+105)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The New York Mets are in a tailspin, but facing Patrick Corbin today should help.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Corbin took a sub-4.00 ERA into August, which is notable for him, but things have taken a turn for the worse. Since then, Corbin has allowed 23 runs over seven starts (6.34 ERA).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Corbin ranks in the 18th percentile in xERA (4.75) and in the 14th percentile in xBA (.276), per Baseball Savant.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Getting Alonso at plus-money odds to collect multiple bases sounds great to me. He&#8217;s an elite slugger with a great (and extensive) track record against Corbin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In previous meetings, Alonso is 17-for-49 (.347) with five home runs and three doubles vs. Corbin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Alonso ranks in the 96th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, xSLG, barrel rate and average exit velocity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>New York is absolutely down bad right now, losing seven straight games and watching its lead in the wild-card race dwindle to almost nothing. Alonso needs to be one of the guys stepping up, and I say he gets it going on Saturday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-13bf476e-3f27-4d52-86f2-70dff07fd638\"><strong>Key stat<\/strong>: Alonso is averaging 2.3 total bases per game since Aug. 1 and is slugging .549 in that span.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-ebade6eb-0e6a-4675-8cbc-3a4396c11ac4\">Best MLB picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Cronenworth over 0.5 RBI (+180)<\/strong>: When Bradley Blalock last pitched against San Diego, he allowed 12 earned runs over 3.2 innings. Cronenworth got in on the fun, connecting for a solo homer in the third.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With Blalock back on the mound against the Padres tonight, I like this market as a way of targeting San Diego&#8217;s shortstop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cronenworth has an .887 OPS in his past 18 games. He usually bats in the bottom-third of the order, which explains why this RBI prop is priced where it is. But if the Padres are humming, everyone should have RBI opportunities. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Blalock ranks in the first percentile (i.e., worst) in xBA, chase rate and strikeout rate. He also has a third-percentile xERA (5.96).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Left-handed batters, like Cronenworth, have a 1.010 OPS off Blalock in 11 games this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Cease under 7.5 Ks (+115)<\/strong>: Cease is effectively wild on the mound, racking up walks and strikeouts along the way. That drives up his pitch count, though, and usually prevents him from clearing a number like this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Despite having the second-best K\/9 in the majors (11.62), Cease has gone under this strikeout total in 19 of 29 starts.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>He&#8217;s averaging 6.7 Ks per start.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li> Cease&#8217;s 3.87 BB\/9 is the third-highest in the majors among 53 qualified pitchers.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The Rockies strike out a lot, but I love this plus-money fade at a pretty high number. Cease has only completed 6.0 IP once in his past 10 outings, so he&#8217;d have to be really efficient to clear a 7.5-strikeout total.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Last weekend, Cease struck out five Rockies hitters over 5.0 IP. He threw 102 pitches in that start.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-571cf986-8d14-4776-b519-20fa27d04fec\"><em>MLB prop picks made at 12:20 p.m. ET on 09\/13\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>For Saturday&#8217;s MLB prop bets, I&#8217;m particularly keyed on the evening matchup between the Colorado Rockies and San Diego Padres. Today&#8217;s MLB props narrative: Dylan Cease isn&#8217;t known to work deep into games, which can make a high strikeout total difficult to reach. I&#8217;m fading Cease on Saturday and backing infielder Jake Cronenworth to make [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":368825,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-368848","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB prop bets Sept. 13: Picks, predictions &amp; odds | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB prop bets for Sept. 13, 2025. 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