{"id":368729,"date":"2025-09-12T12:18:13","date_gmt":"2025-09-12T16:18:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=368729"},"modified":"2025-09-12T12:18:13","modified_gmt":"2025-09-12T16:18:13","slug":"mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-september-12-2025-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-september-12-2025-2\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB home run picks Sept. 12: Eugenio Suarez, Vinnie Pasquantino both have promising matchups"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Eugenio Suarez is flirting with a 50-homer season, and I expect him to get closer on Friday night in Seattle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative:<\/strong> Suarez&#8217;s Mariners host Yusei Kikuchi and the Angels, and this has been an effective matchup for the all-star infielder before. Earlier on, look for Vinnie Pasquantino to stay hot in a park built for lefty power bats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Sept. 12.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB home run picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/baseball\/competitions\/10065\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging\"><strong>MLB player stats<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/standings\/division\"><strong>MLB standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best Bet: Suarez to hit a home run (+320)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Suarez has been my most common HR pick this season, I think. He just seems to always have a better price than the other sluggers in his orbit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The third baseman is one of just five players this year with 45-plus homers. And though he&#8217;s been pretty cold at the plate lately, the power is still there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Over his past 20 games, Suarez is just 14-for-73 (.192) &#8230; but <em>half<\/em> of those 14 hits were home runs.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>On the season, Suarez has a sixth-percentile xBA (.218), according to Baseball Savant. But he also has an 89th-percentile barrel rate (14.0%).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Suarez has an all-or-nothing offensive profile, which is fine for a bet like this. I&#8217;m just looking for him to connect once.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tonight&#8217;s matchup against Kikuchi is a good one for Suarez, given the pitch mix Kikuchi tends to deploy against right-handed batters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>RHBs are slugging .459 vs. Kikuchi this year, coming to a .336 SLG for LHBs. Kikuchi also has a much higher opponent OPS on the road (.849) than at home (.704).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kikuchi throws four-seam fastballs and sliders roughly 70% of the time to RHBs. Those happen to be Suarez&#8217;s favourite pitches to mash.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Suarez is slugging .594 vs. four-seamers and sliders this year, and 27 of his 45 homers have come off those pitches.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Suarez is 5-for-12 with three HRs in his career vs. Kikuchi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best HR predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Pasquantino to hit a home run (+333):<\/strong> According to Baseball Savant&#8217;s park factors, Citizen Bank Park in Philadelphia has been the most homer-friendly venue for LHBs over the past three seasons (29% more HRs than average).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Enter, Pasquantino.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The 245-pound first baseman has been a slugging machine lately, teeing off for eight homers and a .616 SLG over his past 23 games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pasquantino has the platoon advantage tonight against Phillies right-hander Walker Buehler, who&#8217;s allowing an .877 OPS vs. LHBs this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For his part, Pasquantino has a .506 SLG vs. righties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Buehler ranks in the bottom-10th percentile in xERA, xBA and whiff rate. Pasquantino should have a chance to run into one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>MLB home run picks made at 12:15 p.m. ET on 09\/12\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Eugenio Suarez is flirting with a 50-homer season, and I expect him to get closer on Friday night in Seattle. Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative: Suarez&#8217;s Mariners host Yusei Kikuchi and the Angels, and this has been an effective matchup for the all-star infielder before. Earlier on, look for Vinnie Pasquantino to stay hot in a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":368719,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-368729","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB home run picks Sept. 12: Best bets, predictions &amp; odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB home run picks for Sept. 12, 2025. 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