{"id":368489,"date":"2025-09-11T09:28:44","date_gmt":"2025-09-11T13:28:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=368489"},"modified":"2025-09-11T09:28:45","modified_gmt":"2025-09-11T13:28:45","slug":"astros-vs-blue-jays-predictions-september-11-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/astros-vs-blue-jays-predictions-september-11-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Astros vs. Blue Jays SGP predictions Sept. 11: Fade Guerrero, Pena in rubber match at Rogers Centre"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>A crucial series between the Toronto Blue Jays and Houston Astros is up for grabs on Thursday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Toronto and Houston split a pair of low-scoring games to begin this series, and now the battle of division leaders goes to a rubber match. Both Kevin Gausman and Cristian Javier have fared well against these respective lineups, which means runs could be at a premium again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my Astros vs. Blue Jays for Sept. 11, featuring prop bets on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/vladimir_guerrero_jr\/batting-stats\">Vladimir Guerrero Jr.<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/jeremy_pena\/batting-stats\">Jeremy Pena<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Astros vs. Blue Jays predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Parlay: Guerrero under 1.5 baess | Pena under 1.5 bases | Gausman over 4.5 Ks (+300)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNTc4NzU5JnA9MjM3Njk%3D\">Guerrero under 1.5 total bases (-129)<\/a>:<\/strong> Before yesterday&#8217;s 0-for-4 showing, Guerrero had compiled six consecutive multi-hit games. So if you&#8217;re questioning this pick, I get it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But all MLB hitters have peaks and valleys \u2014 even elite ones like Guerrero. Prior to his mini-tear, Vladdy had gone 3-for-30 over a nine-game stretch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All told, he&#8217;s gone under his bases prop in nine of his past 15 starts. And I expect more of the same with Javier on the bump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Guerrero is 0-for-6 with two walks and two strikeouts vs. Javier.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Javier walks a lot of batters, and walks don&#8217;t contribute to total bases counts. The right-hander has a 3.57 BB\/9 since 2022, which is the 18th-highest among 150 pitchers in that span.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Guerrero has an 89th-percentile walk rate (12.5%), per Baseball Savant, and it&#8217;s more likely that the Astros will want to pitch around him with Bo Bichette out of the lineup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB stats &amp; standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:117833\">Embed: #117833<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB SGP legs<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNTc4NzU5JnA9MjM3Njk%3D\">Pena under 1.5 total bases (-190)<\/a>:<\/strong> Pena has underwhelmed at the plate recently, and combining that with his brutal numbers vs. Gausman, I think this is a worthwhile fade to add to the SGP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Since Aug. 16, Pena has a .232\/.303\/.364 slash line, with more strikeouts (24) than hits (23). He&#8217;s gone under 1.5 bases in 14 of 23 starts in that span.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Pena is 1-for-11 with six Ks against Gausman.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The shortstop has solid contact quality, evidenced by his 82nd-percentile xBA (.280), but there&#8217;s a lot of swing-and-miss in his game. Gausman has clearly taken advantage of that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pena has a ninth-percentile chase rate and a 28th-percentile whiff rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNTc4NzU5JnA9MjM3Njk%3D\">Gausman over 4.5 strikeouts (-205)<\/a>:<\/strong> Pena is far from the only Houston hitter that Gausman has carved up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Astros&#8217; lineup is collectively 18-for-107 (.168) with 50 strikeouts against Toronto&#8217;s veteran right-hander.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gausman has garnered a 42% K rate and a 37.4% whiff rate against this lineup. Those are both miles ahead of the league-average rates (22.0 K%, 25.1 whiff%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gausman struck out six when he faced the Astros in April. He&#8217;s also 7-2 vs. this prop in his past nine outings, averaging 6.4 Ks in that span.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Blue Jays picks as of 8:36 a.m. on 09\/11\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking to get started? <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNzQxMyZsPTEzNTI3NDExJnA9MjMyNDM%3D\">Sign up here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A crucial series between the Toronto Blue Jays and Houston Astros is up for grabs on Thursday afternoon. The pregame narrative: Toronto and Houston split a pair of low-scoring games to begin this series, and now the battle of division leaders goes to a rubber match. Both Kevin Gausman and Cristian Javier have fared well [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":368496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-368489","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Astros vs. Blue Jays predictions: Sept. 11 MLB SGP | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Astros vs. Blue Jays predictions for Sept. 11, 2025. 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