{"id":368330,"date":"2025-09-10T12:07:55","date_gmt":"2025-09-10T16:07:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=368330"},"modified":"2025-09-10T12:07:55","modified_gmt":"2025-09-10T16:07:55","slug":"mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-september-10","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-september-10\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB home run picks Sept. 10: Back Teoscar Hernandez, Yordan Alvarez to go deep"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Teoscar Hernandez headlines Wednesday&#8217;s MLB home run bets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative:<\/strong> Hernandez hit his 22nd and 23rd home runs of the season last night, and is in a good spot to add to that total against a lefty at Dodger Stadium. Elsewhere, Yordan Alvarez is a strong pick to hammer a struggling Jose Berrios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Sept. 10.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB home run picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/baseball\/competitions\/10065\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging\"><strong>MLB player stats<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/standings\/division\"><strong>MLB standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best Bet: Hernandez to hit a home run (+265)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hernandez is a streaky hitter, and I&#8217;m hoping yesterday&#8217;s two-homer outing lights a fire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The power bat has logged at least 25 home runs in each of the last four seasons, and is closing in on that mark again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He&#8217;s done most of his damage against lefties and will face a bad one tonight in Kyle Freeland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Hernandez vs. LHP:<\/strong> .278\/.314\/.536 splits, 16.2 AB\/HR ratio<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Hernandez vs. RHP: <\/strong>.234\/.272\/.429 splits, 20.8 AB\/HR ratio<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Freeland sports a 5.10 ERA and has the misfortune of playing half of his games at Coors Field. But he&#8217;s still gotten hit hard on the road (4.56 ERA, .274 OBA) and by righties (.303\/.349\/.493 slash line).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The southpaw ranks in the 15th percentile or lower in xBA, xSLG, hard-hit rate, K rate and average exit velocity, per Baseball Savant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Freeland&#8217;s one plus is that he doesn&#8217;t walk batters (88th percentile BB rate), but that&#8217;s a boon for this wager.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Hernandez is 1-for-5 against Freeland with a home run. He has a .381 xBA and 1.364 xSLG in those at-bats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best HR predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Alvarez to hit a home run (+280):<\/strong> Berrios is clinging on for dear life down the stretch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>From July 1 onwards, the Toronto Blue Jays righty has a 5.47 ERA and a 1.8 HR\/9 rate. For context, Zach Littell ranks last among qualified pitchers with a 1.9 HR\/9 rate this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Berrios also ranks in the bottom-third percentile in xERA, xBA, barrel rate, K rate, whiff rate and average exit velocity. Yikes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Alvarez has seen Berrios plenty and is 3-for-16 against him with a pair of bombs. And the Houston slugger&#8217;s .289 xBA and .656 xSLG in those at-bats indicate he&#8217;s been a tad unlucky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Both the pitcher and hitter in this matchup run reverse splits, meaning this isn&#8217;t optimized for your typical lefty-on-righty platoon advantage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But I still like Alvarez, who is batting a blistering .516 this month, to come through.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>MLB home run picks made at 10:17 a.m. ET on 09\/10\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Teoscar Hernandez headlines Wednesday&#8217;s MLB home run bets. Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative: Hernandez hit his 22nd and 23rd home runs of the season last night, and is in a good spot to add to that total against a lefty at Dodger Stadium. Elsewhere, Yordan Alvarez is a strong pick to hammer a struggling Jose Berrios. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":368254,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[130],"class_list":["post-368330","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB home run picks Sept. 10: Best bets, predictions &amp; odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB home run picks for Sept. 10, 2025. 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