{"id":368211,"date":"2025-09-10T09:29:59","date_gmt":"2025-09-10T13:29:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=368211"},"modified":"2025-09-10T09:29:59","modified_gmt":"2025-09-10T13:29:59","slug":"astros-vs-blue-jays-best-bets-september-10-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/astros-vs-blue-jays-best-bets-september-10-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Astros vs. Blue Jays best bets Sept. 10: Back Toronto&#8217;s offence, Addison Barger on Wednesday"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The Toronto Blue Jays look for a series win over the Houston Astros on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Toronto authored a two-run, ninth-inning comeback last night to extend its AL East lead to three. The Blue Jays are slight favourites with Jose Berrios pitching opposite Jason Alexander. The Astros have won Alexander&#8217;s last seven starts despite some horrific underlying numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Astros for Sept. 10, including props on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/addison_barger\/batting-stats\">Addison Barger<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Blue Jays best bets vs. Astros<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best bet: Blue Jays over 4.5 runs (-110)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Toronto&#8217;s offence wasn&#8217;t at its best yesterday, but it still came through in the clutch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Jays were no-hit through five innings and ultimately finished with seven knocks and four runs, scoring the winner in extras.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I expect that momentum to carry over into a plus matchup tonight. Check out how Toronto&#8217;s offence has ranked since the all-star break:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>5.81 runs per game (first)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>.288 average (first)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>.354 on-base percentage (first)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>.487 slugging percentage (first)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>133 wrC+ (first)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Yep, that&#8217;ll play. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Obviously, there is a glaring omission in the lineup with MLB&#8217;s hit leader, Bo Bichette, sidelined. He can create a boatload of offence on his own, but I still think the Jays should chase Alexander tonight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Astros&#8217; righty has a 4.68 ERA on the season and has given up six home runs in his last four games. Alexander also ranks in the bottom-20th percentile in xERA, xBA, chase rate and hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Toronto is averaging 5.30 runs per game at home this year (third-most in MLB).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:117790\">Embed: #117790<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\">Full MLB betting markets<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\">MLB injury report<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\">MLB stats &amp; standings<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Jays prop pick<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Barger over 1.5 bases (+143): <\/strong>Barger has been in a slump, but profiles as the type of bat who can get after Alexander.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The sophomore third baseman has great pop, crushes right-handed pitching, and rakes at home.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Barger ranks in the 75th percentile or higher in xSLG, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and bat speed.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>He is slugging .483 against RHP and .475 at home. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Barger&#8217;s biggest flaw is that he goes down on strikes and doesn&#8217;t walk often. That&#8217;s fine by me, though, as it demonstrates he&#8217;s always looking to do damage and is unlikely to take a free pass (which wouldn&#8217;t count toward this total).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Alexander has a 30th percentile K rate and is ceding a .282\/.354\/.542 slash line to left-hitting batters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Blue Jays best bets made at 8:47 a.m. ET on 09\/10\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Toronto Blue Jays look for a series win over the Houston Astros on Tuesday. The pregame narrative: Toronto authored a two-run, ninth-inning comeback last night to extend its AL East lead to three. The Blue Jays are slight favourites with Jose Berrios pitching opposite Jason Alexander. The Astros have won Alexander&#8217;s last seven starts [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":368222,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[130],"class_list":["post-368211","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Blue Jays best bets vs. Astros: Sept. 10 MLB betting | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Astros vs. Blue Jays best bets for Sept. 10, 2025. 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