{"id":368054,"date":"2025-09-09T11:00:28","date_gmt":"2025-09-09T15:00:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=368054"},"modified":"2025-09-09T11:00:28","modified_gmt":"2025-09-09T15:00:28","slug":"mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-september-9-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-september-9-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB home run picks Sept. 9: Bet on Kerry Carpenter, Rafael Devers to go deep"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/kerry_carpenter\/batting-stats\">Kerry Carpenter<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/rafael_devers\/batting-stats\">Rafael Devers<\/a> headline Tuesday&#8217;s MLB home run picks. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative:<\/strong> Both players will have a platoon advantage tonight, with Carpenter going up against Will Warren at Yankee Stadium. Devers, meanwhile, has finally found a groove after a horrible start to his Giants tenure. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Sept. 9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB home run picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best Bet: Carpenter to hit a home run (+440)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Carpenter is an ideal man to target when the time and price are right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The outfielder rocks right-handed pitching, rarely takes walks, and now gets to play in one of the most hitter-friendly venues in baseball.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Carpenter is slugging .529 vs. RHPs this season.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>He ranks in the 75th percentile or higher in xSLG, barrel rate, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, per Baseball Savant.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Carpenter&#8217;s 3.9% walk rate ranks in the second percentile and should offset Warren&#8217;s wild nature.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Yankee Stadium has allowed 20% more HRs than average to left-hitting batters over the last three seasons, according to Baseball Savant&#8217;s Park factors.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Warren is having a decent sophomore season, walk issues aside, and has posted a 2.97 ERA in five starts since Aug. 1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But he&#8217;s given up five home runs in those outings with a .285 xBA and a 54% hard-hit rate. Some regression is due, and I expect Carpenter to be all over him tonight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Warren ranks in the bottom-15th percentile in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:117744\">Embed: #117744<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul id=\"block-936075f6-af63-445a-a51c-d3fef94e8ec1\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB stats &amp; standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best HR predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Devers to hit a home run (+440):<\/strong> The San Francisco Giants have needed Devers at his best for their playoff push, and so far, he&#8217;s delivered. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>San Fran is 12-3 in its last 15 games. In that span, Devers is slashing .333\/.424\/.684 with six home runs.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>And since Aug. 1, he is slashing .283\/.373\/.583 with 12 home runs.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Tonight, Devers gets to go up against Zac Gallen and the Arizona Diamondbacks. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gallen is easily having the worst season of his career, despite logging four straight quality starts. He has posted career lows in ERA (4.77), WHIP (1.28), K\/9 (8.3), and HR\/9 (1.4).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Lefties are slugging .445 off of Gallen, and Devers is slugging .514 off of righties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>MLB home run picks made at 10:27 a.m. ET on 09\/09\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Kerry Carpenter and Rafael Devers headline Tuesday&#8217;s MLB home run picks. Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative: Both players will have a platoon advantage tonight, with Carpenter going up against Will Warren at Yankee Stadium. Devers, meanwhile, has finally found a groove after a horrible start to his Giants tenure. Check out the best MLB home run [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":368062,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[130],"class_list":["post-368054","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB home run picks Sept. 9: Best bets, predictions &amp; odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB home run picks for Sept. 9, 2025. 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