{"id":367911,"date":"2025-09-08T09:42:38","date_gmt":"2025-09-08T13:42:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=367911"},"modified":"2025-09-08T09:42:39","modified_gmt":"2025-09-08T13:42:39","slug":"mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-september-8-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-september-8-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB home run picks Sept. 8: Eugenio Suarez, Juan Soto look to stay hot"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/eugenio_suarez\/batting-stats\">Eugenio Suarez<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/juan_soto\/batting-stats\">Juan Soto<\/a> are both swinging hot bats right now, and they&#8217;re the MLB home run targets I&#8217;m most excited about on Monday night.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative:<\/strong> Suarez is five homers shy of 50, while Soto is quickly approaching 40. Both players are in MLB&#8217;s top 20 in slugging percentage over the past two weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Sept. 8.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB home run picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best Bet: Suarez to hit a home run (+390)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I&#8217;m loving this price for a guy who&#8217;s been among the very best home run hitters this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Suarez&#8217;s 45 homers are the fourth-most in MLB this season, ahead of guys like Aaron Judge and Pete Alonso.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The third baseman homered in back-to-back games over the weekend to close out the Mariners&#8217; road trip. He also homered in back-to-back games at the end of their most recent homestand (Aug. 26-27).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The main issue when Suarez digs in at the plate is his propensity to swing and miss. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But when he&#8217;s facing a soft-tossing, low-strikeout guy \u2014 as is the case tonight \u2014 that concern largely goes away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Miles Mikolas is on the mound for the St. Louis Cardinals tonight. He ranks in the third percentile in both whiff rate and strikeout rate, per Baseball Savant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Suarez knows a thing or two about Mikolas, as the pair has a decent volume of head-to-head matchups on their ledger. Seattle&#8217;s slugger is 9-for-19 (.474) vs. Mikolas with four HRs and a double.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mikolas&#8217; home\/road splits are another noteworthy factor. He loves to work inside St. Louis&#8217; Busch Stadium, but things get quite dicey elsewhere:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Home (14 starts):<\/strong> 7 HRs allowed, .360 opponent SLG<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Road (13 starts):<\/strong> 17 HRs allowed, .623 opponent SLG<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Over his past 20 games, Suarez has eight HRs and a .964 OPS.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:117716\">Embed: #117716<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul id=\"block-936075f6-af63-445a-a51c-d3fef94e8ec1\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB stats &amp; standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best HR predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Soto to hit a home run (+360):<\/strong> According to Baseball Savant&#8217;s park factors data, Philadelphia&#8217;s Citizens Bank Park is the most homer-friendly venue for left-handed batters over the past three seasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In that span, LHBs are hitting 29% more homers in Philly than the league average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That&#8217;s a nice place to start when backing the left-hitting Soto, but it&#8217;s far from the only reason I&#8217;m buying in on Monday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Soto has a .537 SLG and three HRs in 41 at-bats vs. Phillies starter Aaron Nola.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>In his past 30 games, Soto has 13 HRs and a .308\/.468\/.701 slash line. He also has more hits (33) and more walks (32) than strikeouts (29) in that span.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Nola has posted a 9.96 ERA with nine HRs allowed in his past six starts.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Soto draws walks as well as anyone in the majors, but he&#8217;s also tearing the cover off the ball when hittable pitches come his way. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He ranks in either the 98th or 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, xSLG and average exit velocity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>MLB home run picks made at 9:12 a.m. ET on 09\/08\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Eugenio Suarez and Juan Soto are both swinging hot bats right now, and they&#8217;re the MLB home run targets I&#8217;m most excited about on Monday night. Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative: Suarez is five homers shy of 50, while Soto is quickly approaching 40. Both players are in MLB&#8217;s top 20 in slugging percentage over the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":367918,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-367911","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB home run picks Sept. 8: Best bets, predictions &amp; odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB home run picks for Sept. 8, 2025. 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