{"id":367124,"date":"2025-09-05T15:49:20","date_gmt":"2025-09-05T19:49:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=367124"},"modified":"2025-09-05T15:49:21","modified_gmt":"2025-09-05T19:49:21","slug":"nfl-td-picks-and-predictions-week-1-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/nfl-td-picks-and-predictions-week-1-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Week 1 TD picks and predictions: Take Bigsby, Daniels and Chubb to find the end zone"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>NFL Week 1 is here and what better way to celebrate than to take a look at a trio of TD scorers for Sunday&#8217;s action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative<\/strong>: During the early slate, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nfl\/player-stats\/tank_bigsby\">Tank Bigsby<\/a> benefits by playing one of 2024&#8217;s worst defensive teams. Later on, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nfl\/player-stats\/nick_chubb\">Nick Chubb<\/a> looks to find the endzone in his first game with the Houston Texans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my top Week 1 NFL TD picks, featuring a prediction on Washington Commanders quarterback <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nfl\/player-stats\/jayden_daniels\">Jayden Daniels<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-0a4ee124-09d4-4260-81c9-fd6fe232dbb3\">NFL TD picks: Week 1<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-479767b6-5872-497b-ac44-239c07c7e3d5\"><strong>Best bet: Chubb anytime TD (+155)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Chubb had to rejoin the Cleveland Browns midway through last season, and his stats tell us he lost some explosiveness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>He averaged 3.3 yards per carry and scored four touchdowns in eight games.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>But after two different leg injuries, I have a good feeling he should be better after a full offseason and training camp to prepare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This isn&#8217;t just any running back, as Chubb was arguably the best in the league for years before his injury. Before 2024, he averaged over 5.0 YPC in every season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If he regained even some of that explosiveness, he could quickly outplay the $2.5 million contract he signed with Houston.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I don&#8217;t expect Chubb to be a bellcow in Joe Mixon&#8217;s absence, but the Texans should be giddy to use him inside the red zone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even in his down season, Chubb scored on three of his five carries inside five yards for the Browns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Houston&#8217;s offence is a major upgrade, and I&#8217;m sure DeMeco Ryans will turn to Chubb if given the chance near the goal line. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat<\/strong>: Chubb scored 56 TDs in 85 games during his seven seasons with Cleveland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/american_football?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_nfl\">Full NFL markets<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nfl\/standingshttps:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nfl?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_nfl\">NFL player &amp; team stats<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/nfl-injury-report\"><strong>NFL injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-fa134a48-a478-432b-95e0-66881f0d337b\">Best NFL picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bigsby anytime TD (+143):<\/strong> I love the value here on who I expect to be the Jacksonville Jaguars&#8217; short-yardage back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bigbsy improved tremendously in his sophomore season. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>2023-24:<\/strong> 2.6 YPC, two TDs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>2024-25:<\/strong> 4.6 YPC, seven TDs<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Part of that is due to his improvement in the red zone. As he rookie, he turned just 6.6% of his red zone touches into scores. As a sophomore, he upped that to 26.3%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In Week 1, the Jaguars play the Carolina Panthers, and they were pitiful at stopping the run last season. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They allowed the most YPC (5.2) and tied for the second most rushing TDs allowed (24).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Last season, Bigsby recorded 3.74 yards\u00a0after contact per attempt, which ranked third in the NFL among running backs with at least 60 carries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">NFL touchdown scorer prediction<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Daniels anytime TD (+143):<\/strong> We saw the effects of a mobile QB when Jalen Hurts scored two rushing TDs on Thursday Night Football.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And Daniels is one of the few others who can move like Hurts. The Commanders&#8217; QB ran for 891 yards last season and added six scores.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With the departure of Brian Robinson Jr., I can&#8217;t help but think Washington will draw up even more plays for Daniels in the red zone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Austin Ekeler is set to begin the season as the starting running back, and he&#8217;s far from a power runner. In 77 attempts last season, the veteran back had just four TDs and three fumbles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For reference, Derrick Henry had the same number of fumbles on 235 carries. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That isn&#8217;t something any coach can rely on when trying to run inside the tackles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The New York Giants had a below-average run defence last season, allowing 4.5 YPC as a unit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>NFL TD picks made at 2 p.m. ET on 09\/05\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>NFL Week 1 is here and what better way to celebrate than to take a look at a trio of TD scorers for Sunday&#8217;s action. The pregame narrative: During the early slate, Tank Bigsby benefits by playing one of 2024&#8217;s worst defensive teams. Later on, Nick Chubb looks to find the endzone in his first [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":367158,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[61],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-367124","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nfl","tag-nfl-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>NFL TD picks: 2025 Week 1 best bets and predictions | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our 2025 Week 1 NFL TD picks. 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