{"id":367071,"date":"2025-09-05T11:31:36","date_gmt":"2025-09-05T15:31:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=367071"},"modified":"2025-09-05T11:31:37","modified_gmt":"2025-09-05T15:31:37","slug":"red-sox-vs-diamondbacks-predictions-september-5-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/red-sox-vs-diamondbacks-predictions-september-5-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks SGP predictions Sept. 5: Back rookie pitcher Tolle, Boston at +450"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Boston Red Sox look to gain ground in the AL East race during their three-game set against the Arizona Diamondbacks beginning on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Boston is 3.5 games back of the Toronto Blue Jays, who are in New York for a pivotal series against the Yankees. The Red Sox, now without Roman Anthony, are a slight favourite with rookie <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/payton_tolle\/pitching-stats\">Payton Tolle<\/a> going opposite Eduardo Rodriguez. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Check out my Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks SGP <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNTc4NzU5JnA9MjM3Njk%3D\">predictions<\/a> for Sept. 5, featuring Tolle and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/rob_refsnyder\/batting-stats\">Rob Refsnyder<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Parlay: Red Sox F5 +0.5 | Tolle over 4.5 Ks | Refsnyder 1+ RBI (+450)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNTc4NzU5JnA9MjM3Njk%3D\">Red Sox F5 +0.5 (-162)<\/a>:<\/strong> I want to tap into what I perceive to be a pitching advantage in Boston&#8217;s favour.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tolle has only made one MLB start, and it was solid. He fanned eight Pittsburgh Pirates over 5.1 innings of two-run ball. I&#8217;ll circle back on the rookie later, but believe he&#8217;s due for another strong outing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rodriguez, meanwhile, has a massive MLB sample, and it&#8217;s ugly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The southpaw owns a 5.40 ERA this season and has gotten routinely shelved at Chase Field, MLB&#8217;s third-most hitter-friendly environment, according to Baseball Savant&#8217;s Park Factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Boston&#8217;s active lineup has a successful history against Rodriguez over a large sample, too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Sox are a collective 22-for-67 against him with a .612 slugging percentage. I expect them to be at least tied through five frames.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"cacheembed:117573\">Embed: #117573<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB stats &amp; standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB SGP legs<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNTc4NzU5JnA9MjM3Njk%3D\"><strong>Tolle over 4.5 Ks <\/strong>(-152)<\/a>:<\/strong> Back to the 6-foot-6, moustachioed 22-year-old southpaw. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tolle was torching the minor leagues before joining the Sox. He had a 3.04 ERA with a blistering 13.1 K\/9 rate in 18 starts this year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Texas Christian product has an upper-90s fastball\/cutter combo and a 99th percentile &#8220;extension,&#8221; which essentially measures how far from the rubber he releases his pitches.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That makes his offerings appear even faster for opposing bats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Arizona is a tough team to put away on strikes, especially for lefties, but Tolle has generated great swing-and-miss at every level and will have the advantage of seeing this lineup for the first time. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNTc4NzU5JnA9MjM3Njk%3D\">Refsnyder 1+ RBI (+170)<\/a>:<\/strong> Refsnyder only has 23 RBI on the season, but this is oozing with value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He&#8217;s slated to hit fifth for Boston tonight, according to Rotowire, behind names like Alex Bregman and Trevor Story. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That duo has reached base safely in a combined 18-of-42 plate appearances against Rodriguez (.428 OBP). Refsnyder is just 2-for-10 against the lefty, but he has a .392 xBA in those at-bats, so I expect some positive regression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And on the season, Refsnyder has demolished left-handed pitching to the tune of a .304\/.395\/.559 slash line. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is a great price for a player in a run-producing spot. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks predictions<\/em> <em>made at 11:26 a.m. ET on 09\/05\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"thestar wp-block-paragraph\">Looking to get started? <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNzQxMyZsPTEzNTI3NDExJnA9MjMyNDM%3D\">Sign up here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Boston Red Sox look to gain ground in the AL East race during their three-game set against the Arizona Diamondbacks beginning on Friday. The pregame narrative: Boston is 3.5 games back of the Toronto Blue Jays, who are in New York for a pivotal series against the Yankees. The Red Sox, now without Roman [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":367081,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[130],"class_list":["post-367071","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks predictions: Sept. 5 MLB SGP | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks predictions for Sept. 5, 2025. 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