{"id":366892,"date":"2025-09-04T13:46:29","date_gmt":"2025-09-04T17:46:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=366892"},"modified":"2025-09-04T13:46:30","modified_gmt":"2025-09-04T17:46:30","slug":"mlb-prop-bets-and-predictions-september-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-prop-bets-and-predictions-september-4\/","title":{"rendered":"Best MLB prop bets Sept. 4: Fade Judge, look for Skenes to shine vs. Dodgers"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>There&#8217;s no shortage of star power in Thursday&#8217;s MLB prop bets, with Aaron Judge and Paul Skenes gracing the marquee.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-d0873b89-4dfa-47d6-9954-56140c451c77\"><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB props narrative<\/strong>: Judge is a worthy fade candidate tonight against the Houston Astros, while Skenes looks to build on an impressive track record against the Los Angeles Dodgers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-d0873b89-4dfa-47d6-9954-56140c451c77\">Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Sept. 4, including a prediction on Yandy Diaz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-22b3784f-32c2-400a-beef-1578a991be49\">MLB prop bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/baseball\/competitions\/10065\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging\"><strong>MLB player stats<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/standings\/division\"><strong>MLB standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-0c59b741-4781-48d8-8ffa-d93f8ee90c10\"><strong>Best bet: Judge under 1.5 total bases (-118)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Judge is having an otherworldly season, and it wouldn&#8217;t be wise to make a habit of fading him too often. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But he hasn&#8217;t been <em>that<\/em> great since the all-star break, and tonight&#8217;s matchup is one I&#8217;m comfortable fading him in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>In the second half, Judge is batting .229 with a 129 wRC+ (47th in MLB). <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Most of his recent offensive value has come from walks rather than a power display. Judge has more walks (28) than hits (27) since July 18.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Houston right-hander Cristian Javier is known to walk batters in bunches. He has nine walks through 16.0 innings this season, and his 3.79 BB\/9 since 2021 is 18th-highest among 200 qualifiers.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Walks are good for this bet because they don&#8217;t count as bases. Judge has a 99th-percentile walk rate (16.8%), per Baseball Savant, which makes him a good fit with the wild Javier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There&#8217;s also Judge&#8217;s head-to-head history against Javier, which is strikingly in the pitcher&#8217;s favour.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Judge is 0-for-15 with eight strikeouts and two walks vs. Javier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-13bf476e-3f27-4d52-86f2-70dff07fd638\"><strong>Key stat<\/strong>: Since the all-star break, Judge has gone under 1.5 bases in 22 of 33 games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-ebade6eb-0e6a-4675-8cbc-3a4396c11ac4\">Best MLB picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Skenes over 6.5 Ks (-130)<\/strong>: The Los Angeles Dodgers drew the short straw of facing Skenes in both series against the Pittsburgh Pirates. He&#8217;s had no problem mowing down the defending champs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>On April 25 in L.A., Skenes struck out nine Dodgers over 6.1 innings.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Last year, Skenes had 16 Ks over 11.0 IP vs. the Dodgers, cashing this prop in both outings.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Those results are very encouraging, and they play into Skenes&#8217; overall status as a big-time strikeout force.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He&#8217;s averaging 6.7 Ks per start this year and is 15-13 vs. this number.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Diaz over 0.5 runs (-108)<\/strong>: Diaz has been feasting lately, and his near-even-money price to score on a struggling pitcher has my attention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Over his past 25 games, Diaz has a .351\/.400\/.557 slash line. He has reached base multiple times in 16 of those games.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Diaz is 7-3 vs. this prop in his past 10 games.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Cleveland&#8217;s Logan Allen has a 5.28 ERA since the all-star break, allowing 63 baserunners in 44.1 IP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Diaz has an .893 OPS vs. left-handed pitchers this season, so he&#8217;s wielding a nice platoon advantage, too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-571cf986-8d14-4776-b519-20fa27d04fec\"><em>MLB prop picks made at 1:25 p.m. ET on 09\/04\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There&#8217;s no shortage of star power in Thursday&#8217;s MLB prop bets, with Aaron Judge and Paul Skenes gracing the marquee. Today&#8217;s MLB props narrative: Judge is a worthy fade candidate tonight against the Houston Astros, while Skenes looks to build on an impressive track record against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Check out my favourite MLB [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":366771,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-366892","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB prop bets Sept. 4: Picks, predictions &amp; odds | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB prop bets for Sept. 4 2025. 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