{"id":366742,"date":"2025-09-04T09:38:12","date_gmt":"2025-09-04T13:38:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=366742"},"modified":"2025-09-04T09:38:13","modified_gmt":"2025-09-04T13:38:13","slug":"yankees-vs-astros-predictions-september-4-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/yankees-vs-astros-predictions-september-4-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Yankees vs. Astros SGP predictions Sept. 4: Bet on Houston, Yordan Alvarez in series finale"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The New York Yankees and Houston Astros play out their rubber match at Daikin Park on Thursday night.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> New York is a slight favourite with Carlos Rodon on the mound, who is pitching opposite Houston&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/cristian_javier\/pitching-stats\">Cristian Javier<\/a>. The  Astros righty is making his fifth start of the season and has dominated the Yankees in the past. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">See why I like plenty of offence in my Yankees vs. Astros SGP <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNTc4NzU5JnA9MjM3Njk%3D\">predictions<\/a> for Sept. 4, featuring <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/yordan_alvarez\/batting-stats\">Yordan Alvarez<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yankees vs. Astros predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Parlay: Astros +2.5 | Alvarez over 1.5 bases | Rodon over 3.5 Ks (+270)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNTc4NzU5JnA9MjM3Njk%3D\">Astros +2.5 (-250)<\/a>:<\/strong> This seems like a no-brainer way to begin the SGP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Javier doesn&#8217;t have a massive body of work this season, but owns a respectable 3.38 ERA across four starts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Most recently, he threw six no-hit innings against the Los Angeles Angels on Aug. 29. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The righty has some command issues, to be fair, but so does Rodon, who walked a shocking 20 batters in 34.1 innings in August.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And take a look at how each pitcher has performed against their opposing lineup:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Yankees vs. Javier: <\/strong>11-for-61 (.180 BA, .195 xBA), 34.8% K rate<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Astros vs. Rodon: <\/strong>28-for-103 (.272 BA, .241 XBA), 26.1% K rate<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rodon&#8217;s road ERA (3.47) and OBA (.225) are also notably higher than his numbers at home (2.86 ERA, .145 OBA).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I feel comfortable banking two runs with the 77-win Astros. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"cacheembed:117518\">Embed: #117518<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB stats &amp; standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB SGP legs<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNTc4NzU5JnA9MjM3Njk%3D\"><strong>Alvarez over 1.5 bases <\/strong>(+120)<\/a>:<\/strong> The biggest risk with this leg, in my opinion, is Alvarez taking walks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rodon is issuing free passes like cutout coupons, and Alvarez has had an 80th percentile or higher walk rate in each of the last four seasons. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But getting one of baseball&#8217;s most dangerous hitters at plus money seems too good to pass up on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Alvaraez is batting .318 with a .545 SLG in 22 at-bats vs. LHP this season, and ran even better reverse splits in last year&#8217;s full-season sample:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>2024 vs. LHP:<\/strong> .362\/.411\/.617<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>2024 vs. RHP: <\/strong>.280\/.383\/.541<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The slugger is 6-for-9 in this series with a double and should stay hot. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNTc4NzU5JnA9MjM3Njk%3D\">Rodon over 3.5 Ks (-500)<\/a>:<\/strong> Betting a -500 prop as a standalone never plays, but this leg brings this wager from +175 to +270, which is well worth it. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rodon&#8217;s 26.5% K rate ranks in the 78th percentile. He&#8217;s gone over this line in 26-of-28 starts and has cleared this mark in all four starts vs. Houston since joining New York.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There isn&#8217;t much more to say here. This is an extremely manageable line for a solid pitcher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Yankees vs. Astros predictions made at 9:23 a.m. ET on 09\/04\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"thestar wp-block-paragraph\">Looking to get started? <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNzQxMyZsPTEzNTI3NDExJnA9MjMyNDM%3D\">Sign up here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The New York Yankees and Houston Astros play out their rubber match at Daikin Park on Thursday night. The pregame narrative: New York is a slight favourite with Carlos Rodon on the mound, who is pitching opposite Houston&#8217;s Cristian Javier. The Astros righty is making his fifth start of the season and has dominated the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":366762,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[130],"class_list":["post-366742","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Yankees vs. Astros predictions: Sept. 4 MLB SGP | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Yankees vs. Astros predictions for Sept. 4, 2025. 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