{"id":366369,"date":"2025-09-02T11:27:14","date_gmt":"2025-09-02T15:27:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=366369"},"modified":"2025-09-02T11:27:15","modified_gmt":"2025-09-02T15:27:15","slug":"mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-september-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-september-2\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB home run picks Sept. 2: Rafael Devers looks to mash at Coors Field"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p id=\"block-f861a200-83d7-41ec-85bb-3490dfaff72d\">Rafael Devers has a chance to hit a home run in a third straight game on Tuesday night, and I&#8217;m backing him in my MLB home run picks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-58d22cc1-151d-47c8-af42-8aa7b8db1166\"><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative:<\/strong> Devers hit a titanic, 411-foot blast into Denver&#8217;s mountain air last night, clocking a 114.5-mph exit velocity in the process. He&#8217;s now one homer shy of a fourth 30-HR season in his career.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-4043a93e-b814-450a-a4f0-74e0e610b5b4\">Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Sept. 2, featuring Ozzie Albies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-9c73e8b2-ff5b-4522-afbb-46b742003eee\">MLB home run picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-aa080a23-4ec0-49be-a057-9c26e9fa2d4b\"><strong>Best bet: Devers to hit a home run (+295)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Devers isn&#8217;t at his best in lefty-on-lefty matchups, but this is still a playable price based on other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>The opposing starter gets shelled routinely.<\/strong> Colorado&#8217;s Kyle Freeland (3-13, 5.28 ERA) has a 2.36 HR\/9 since the second half, which is the second-worst among 67 qualifiers. He also ranks in the bottom-10th percentile in xBA, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, per Baseball Savant.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Devers is rolling.<\/strong> In 23 games since Aug. 8, Devers has nine HRs and a .667 SLG. He has also homered in back-to-back games entering Tuesday.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Coors Field is a haven for offence.<\/strong> Colorado&#8217;s home park allows 25% more runs than average, which is the greatest discrepancy in MLB.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The platoon disadvantage for Devers is suboptimal, but he is 1-for-3 with a home run already against Freeland. So at least we know it can be done.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Freeland has coughed up multiple homers in back-to-back starts, along with 10 total HRs in his past seven outings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opposing hitters are slugging .531 against Freeland in 11 games at Coors Field this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-dff8126b-9f3f-4ef8-bb6d-0187374cb2ac\"><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Devers has a 15.8% barrel rate (94th percentile) and a 93.7 mph average exit velocity (98th percentile).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-e2ef6f25-1bab-4001-9326-588451eaee16\">Best HR predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-a7f5661d-4909-41d8-a067-07467c3b88b8\"><strong>Albies to hit a home run (+425):<\/strong> Albies is a second baseman with a .354 SLG on the season. You&#8217;re not going to find a player like that in my home run prop crosshairs very often.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-a7f5661d-4909-41d8-a067-07467c3b88b8\">But Albies is swinging a hot bat lately, posting a .313\/.345\/.530 slash line over his past 20 games. He also has three HRs in the past week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Albies is a switch-hitter who fares better from the right side (career .533 SLG), which is where he&#8217;ll be tonight against Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Imanaga&#8217;s 3.08 ERA over 20 starts might seem intimidating, but he&#8217;s been hurt by the long ball many times before. In 11 starts since July, Imanaga has allowed 14 homers.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>To put it another way, Imanaga&#8217;s 1.87 HR\/9 since July is the fifth-highest among 70 qualified pitchers.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-f861a200-83d7-41ec-85bb-3490dfaff72d\"><em>MLB home run picks made at 11:15 a.m. ET on 09\/02\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Rafael Devers has a chance to hit a home run in a third straight game on Tuesday night, and I&#8217;m backing him in my MLB home run picks. Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative: Devers hit a titanic, 411-foot blast into Denver&#8217;s mountain air last night, clocking a 114.5-mph exit velocity in the process. He&#8217;s now one [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":366361,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-366369","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB home run picks Sept. 2: Best bets, predictions &amp; odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB home run picks for Sept. 2, 2025. 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