{"id":366214,"date":"2025-09-01T09:42:05","date_gmt":"2025-09-01T13:42:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=366214"},"modified":"2025-09-01T09:42:05","modified_gmt":"2025-09-01T13:42:05","slug":"blue-jays-vs-reds-best-bets-september-1-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/blue-jays-vs-reds-best-bets-september-1-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Blue Jays vs. Reds best bets Sept. 1: Bet on Bichette, Greene to shine on Labour Day"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>It&#8217;s Labour Day, and the Toronto Blue Jays are in action for a rare Monday matinee against the Cincinnati Reds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative<\/strong>: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/hunter_greene\/pitching-stats\">Hunter Greene<\/a>&#8216;s high-octane stuff will be on display at Great American Ball Park this afternoon for a Reds team that is just 2-8 in its past 10. Toronto turns to Chris Bassitt at the outset of a six-game road trip.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Reds for Sept. 1, featuring Greene and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/bo_bichette\/batting-stats\">Bo Bichette<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Blue Jays best bets vs. Reds<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best bet:<strong> <\/strong>Greene over 5.5 Ks (-125)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s been tough to take the over on strikeouts props for pitchers facing the Jays this year, but this line feels like an overcorrection.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yes, Toronto has MLB&#8217;s lowest strikeout rate (17.5%) and has only averaged 6.6 total Ks per game since the all-star break. Those are pretty compelling reasons to fade whoever&#8217;s on the mound against them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Greene (5-4, 2.81 ERA) isn&#8217;t just anybody, though.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The 25-year-old fireballer was my preseason pick to win NL Cy Young, and if not for a groin injury that took a huge bite out of his season, he could be right in the mix. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Greene sits 99 mph with his fastball, and he offsets that with a wipeout slider.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>His slider has a 47.0% whiff rate, per Baseball Savant. That&#8217;s the 12th-highest rate among any MLB pitch in a sample with more than 500 qualifiers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For as strikeout-conscious as the Blue Jays have been, Greene&#8217;s slider should tap into a weakness. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Against sliders from right-handed pitchers, Toronto has the 10th-lowest batting average (.227) and the 12th-highest whiff rate (34.4%) in the majors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Greene has an 11.0 K\/9 this season, which is better than guys like Paul Skenes, Hunter Brown and Spencer Strider. He clears this line routinely, and I think he can overcome this matchup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Greene is averaging 6.7 Ks per start and is 10-4 vs. this strikeout line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:117398\">Embed: #117398<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\">Full MLB betting markets<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\">MLB injury report<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\">MLB stats &amp; standings<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Jays prop picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Over 8.5 runs (-103):<\/strong> Though I expect some strikeouts from Greene, that doesn&#8217;t mean I think Toronto will be totally silent on offence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Jays still have the league&#8217;s best second-half offence, averaging 5.7 runs per game with a 133 wRC+ and an .837 OPS.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>For context, the league-average OPS this year is .720.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Toronto has been the most overs-friendly team this season, per Team Rankings, with a 77-54-6 record (58.8%). The lineup has a ton to do with that, but it&#8217;s not the only reason I expect ample scoring today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bassitt has been markedly worse on the road this season, with a 6.10 ERA in 13 games (compared to a 2.76 ERA in 15 home games).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Also, Toronto&#8217;s bullpen has a 5.51 ERA since the all-star break, which is second-worst in MLB.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bichette over 1.5 total bases (+125):<\/strong> Bichette was absolutely dialled in August, and I&#8217;m hoping he carries that forward into the final month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>In August, Bichette posted a .367\/.425\/.523 slash line in 27 games.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>He averaged 2.1 bases per game and went 15-12 vs. this line.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Greene&#8217;s stuff is electric, but he can get burned, too. He allows a 90.3 mph average exit velocity, which ranks in the 24th percentile, which is a tough partner for his fifth-percentile ground ball rate (30.6%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bichette has barrelled up some pitches from Greene in the past, going 3-for-6 with a triple and two HRs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Blue Jays best bets made at 9:25 a.m. ET on 09\/01\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s Labour Day, and the Toronto Blue Jays are in action for a rare Monday matinee against the Cincinnati Reds. The pregame narrative: Hunter Greene&#8216;s high-octane stuff will be on display at Great American Ball Park this afternoon for a Reds team that is just 2-8 in its past 10. Toronto turns to Chris Bassitt [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":366219,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-366214","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Blue Jays best bets vs. Reds: Sept. 1 MLB betting | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Blue Jays vs. Reds best bets for Sept. 1, 2025. 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