{"id":365452,"date":"2025-08-29T19:16:22","date_gmt":"2025-08-29T23:16:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=365452"},"modified":"2025-08-30T13:04:28","modified_gmt":"2025-08-30T17:04:28","slug":"us-open-tennis-predictions-and-third-round-best-bets-for-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/us-open-tennis-predictions-and-third-round-best-bets-for-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"US Open third-round picks and predictions: Bets on Sinner vs. Shapovalov, Zverev vs. Auger-Aliassime"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The U.S. Open third round begins on Friday and runs through Saturday at Flushing Meadows. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Novak Djokovic hasn&#8217;t been himself this tournament, and will face a familiar foe in Great Britain&#8217;s Cameron Norrie. On the women&#8217;s side, World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka takes on 2021 Canadian U.S. Open finalist Leylah Fernandez.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Check out my top 2025 U.S. Open predictions for the third round.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">US Open predictions: Third round<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Best bet: Norrie +7.5 games (-143)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/tennis\/matches\/48h\">Full tennis betting markets<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I backed American wildcard Zachary Svajda +7.5 against Djokovic in the second round, which fell flat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But I feel comfortable fading the all-time great again for a few reasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Djokovic has been battling fatigue in this tournament. He took six weeks off from the end of Wimbledon and hasn&#8217;t been sharp through two rounds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;I was really surprised how bad I was feeling in the second [set] physically,&#8221; Djokovic told reporters after his first-round matchup. &#8220;I just struggled to stay in long exchanges and recover after points.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The four-time U.S. Open winner lost his first set against Svajda in Round 2 while committing 14 unforced errors \u2014 making me think my bet was looking great \u2014 before winning the next three.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But that was because of Svajda&#8217;s own problems. The American was serving below 90 mph while dealing with a leg ailment, and Djokovic cruised to a victory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That said, I think Norrie could be the man to give Djokovic some real trouble.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Brit has been in great form since the start of the Geneva Open, going 16-8 with a Rolland Garros fourth-round appearance and a Wimbledon quarterfinal berth.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Norrie did lose to Djokovic twice in that span \u2014 both times on clay \u2014 but won a set off the Serbian in Geneva.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I think he should be able to cover this massive number against a worn-down legend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Norrie is 4-2 against this line in his last six Grand Slam matches against top-10 ranked players. He also lost by eight games in one of the outliers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">US Open best bet: Sabalenka vs. Fernandez<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Sabalenka over 12.5 games won (+105)<\/strong>: I believe Sabalenka will win this match, but not without some adversity. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This wager implies the World No. 1 will have to win at least one set 7-5, or go to three sets against Fernandez. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So far, Sabalenka has won exactly 13 games in both matches.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Belarusian hasn&#8217;t been sharp on her service game, putting 15 break points up for grabs against her first two opponents. They&#8217;ve only cashed in two combined, but the risk has been there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fernandez, a capable hard-court player, can press Sabalenka and capitalize on those opportunities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Canadian won the Citi DC Open in July and holds a 62.92% win rate on this surface (her best of any outdoor surface).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>US Open predictions made at 1:45 p.m. on 08\/28\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">US Open Aug. 30 best bet: Bublik vs. Paul<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Bublik to win (-134): <\/strong>Bublik is poised for a deep run at Flushing Meadows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Kazakhstani opted to skip the beginning of the North American summer swing and instead stayed overseas, winning a pair of ATP Tour 250 events at the Swiss and Generali Opens. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Before that, we saw flashes of Bublik&#8217;s ceiling when he beat No. 1-ranked Jannik Sinner at the Halle Open final, avenging his French Open quarterfinal loss to the Italian earlier that month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">All in all, Bublik is 19-2 in his last 21 matches and is on a 10-match winning streak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sure, most of the competition hasn&#8217;t been on Paul&#8217;s level, but Bublik&#8217;s confidence must be bubbling over at the moment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He hasn&#8217;t broken serve yet in New York and has fired a combined 32 aces over two straight-set victories.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Paul, meanwhile, needed north of four hours to defeat Nuno Borges in a five-set thriller that ended at 1:46 a.m. ET Friday morning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I&#8217;ll gladly ride the hot hand in a pick&#8217;em. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Top US Open parlay predictions for Saturday<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Parlay: Sinner -2.5 sets &amp; Auger-Aliassime +2.5 sets (-105)<\/strong>: It&#8217;s almost impossible to find value betting on Sinner these days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Case and point: He&#8217;s -250 to beat Canadian Denis Shapovalov in straight sets. But I&#8217;ll get on that train as the first of two legs in this parlay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Excluding his final in Cincinnati against Carlos Alcaraz, where he retired mid-set with an illness, Sinner has only been broken three times in seven matches during the North American swing.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>He&#8217;s won every match in straight sets with ease. Shapovalov is a fine player, but Sinner is simply on a different level.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Italian has won 25 of 27 sets against players outside of the top 20 since the start of Wimbledon.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Now on to another Canadian, Felix Auger-Aliassime. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I expect FAA to at least take one set off No. 3 Alexander Zverev.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The German has had an awful season at majors in search of his first Grand Slam, and was in rough physical shape exiting the Cincinnati Open semifinal against Alcaraz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Auger-Aliassime has won two of his last three meetings against Zverev, pushing another to a final set.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>US Open predictions made at 2:44 p.m. on 08\/29\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The U.S. Open third round begins on Friday and runs through Saturday at Flushing Meadows. The pregame narrative: Novak Djokovic hasn&#8217;t been himself this tournament, and will face a familiar foe in Great Britain&#8217;s Cameron Norrie. On the women&#8217;s side, World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka takes on 2021 Canadian U.S. Open finalist Leylah Fernandez. Check [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":365629,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,71],"tags":[128],"class_list":["post-365452","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-tennis","tag-tennis"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>US Open predictions: Third-round tennis picks, best bets | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our US Open predictions for the third round. 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