{"id":365026,"date":"2025-08-25T11:23:56","date_gmt":"2025-08-25T15:23:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=365026"},"modified":"2025-08-25T11:23:56","modified_gmt":"2025-08-25T15:23:56","slug":"mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-august-25","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-august-25\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB home run picks Aug. 25: Brent Rooker looks to take Tarik Skubal deep again"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p id=\"block-f861a200-83d7-41ec-85bb-3490dfaff72d\">Brent Rooker has already homered off reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal a few times. Can he do it again on Monday night?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-58d22cc1-151d-47c8-af42-8aa7b8db1166\"><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative:<\/strong> Rooker is one of two MLB home run picks on Monday night, and his history with Skubal is a big part of that. For a true long shot play, look at Riley Adams&#8217; opportunity inside Yankee Stadium.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-4043a93e-b814-450a-a4f0-74e0e610b5b4\">Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 25.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-9c73e8b2-ff5b-4522-afbb-46b742003eee\">MLB home run picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/baseball\/competitions\/10065\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging\"><strong>MLB player stats<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/standings\/division\"><strong>MLB standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-aa080a23-4ec0-49be-a057-9c26e9fa2d4b\"><strong>Best bet: Adams to hit a home run (+500)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Blue Jays fans might remember Adams, who was drafted early by Toronto in 2017 and was later traded one-for-one in exchange for reliever Brad Hand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Adams, now 29, is merely a platoon catcher that the Jays shouldn&#8217;t regret moving on from. But I&#8217;m liking his long shot HR potential on Monday night.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here are a few reasons why:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Adams is excelling right now.<\/strong> Over his past 29 games (26 starts), Adams has a .489 SLG. Keep in mind that in 31 games before that he only had a .430 <em>OPS<\/em>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>New York&#8217;s Cam Schlittler has reverse splits.<\/strong> The right-handed Schlittler has been worse against right-hitting opponents, allowing a .483 SLG and four HRs in just 60 at-bats.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Yankee Stadium is a superb HR park.<\/strong> Over the past three seasons, right-hitting players have hit 19% more homers at Yankee Stadium than on average elsewhere, per Baseball Savant.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Adams, like Schlittler, also has reverse splits. Neither one is great &#8230; but Adams&#8217; OPS vs. righties (.654) is a notch better than his OPS vs. lefties (.612).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One other thing is that a notable breeze is expected to blow out at Yankee Stadium on Monday night (7.4 mph to 10.1 mph during game time, per Swish Analytics). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I&#8217;d never use weather conditions as a primary driver for this sort of wager, but it doesn&#8217;t hurt in this case.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-dff8126b-9f3f-4ef8-bb6d-0187374cb2ac\"><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> It&#8217;s a limited sample, but Adams has some encouraging batted ball metrics. His average exit velocity (91.6 mph) and barrel rate (13.5%) are both well above the league average (89.4 mph, 8.5% barrel rate).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-e2ef6f25-1bab-4001-9326-588451eaee16\">Best HR predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-a7f5661d-4909-41d8-a067-07467c3b88b8\"><strong>Rooker to hit a home run (+375):<\/strong> Skubal is in good shape to defend his AL Cy Young status, which makes him a difficult pitcher to bet against in the home run prop market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But Rooker has had Skubal&#8217;s number a few times, and in the hitter-friendly confines of Sutter Health Park, I like this price enough to take a swing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Rooker is 8-for-17 (.471) off Skubal with three home runs. That&#8217;s just not a stat line you&#8217;ll see often against the Tigers&#8217; ace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Back in June, when these teams met in Detroit, Rooker took Skubal deep to left with a 110-mph blast that travelled 415 feet, per Baseball Savant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Rooker is slugging .573 off left-handers this year, and he has an 89th-percentile barrel rate (14.1%) overall. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even with the league&#8217;s best lefty on the mound, the A&#8217;s designated hitter is worth a look.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-f861a200-83d7-41ec-85bb-3490dfaff72d\"><em>MLB home run picks made at 11:23 a.m. ET on 08\/25\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Brent Rooker has already homered off reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal a few times. Can he do it again on Monday night? Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative: Rooker is one of two MLB home run picks on Monday night, and his history with Skubal is a big part of that. For a true long [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":365024,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-365026","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB home run picks Aug. 25: Best bets, predictions &amp; odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB home run picks for Aug. 25, 2025. 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