{"id":364390,"date":"2025-08-22T16:16:57","date_gmt":"2025-08-22T20:16:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=364390"},"modified":"2025-08-22T16:16:58","modified_gmt":"2025-08-22T20:16:58","slug":"mlb-prop-bets-august-22-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-prop-bets-august-22-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Best MLB prop bets Aug. 22: Back Ketel Marte, Brandon Lowe and Jose Quintana"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>I&#8217;m backing <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/ketel_marte\/batting-stats\">Ketel Marte<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/brandon_lowe\/batting-stats\">Brandon Lowe<\/a> on the same market as part of my favourite MLB prop picks for Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-d0873b89-4dfa-47d6-9954-56140c451c77\"><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB props narrative<\/strong>: I love Lowe&#8217;s matchup vs. Miles Mikolas of the St. Louis Cardinals, making him a worthy play to clear the over on his total bases prop. As for Marte, he&#8217;s crushing the ball and provides solid plus-money value at home tonight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-d0873b89-4dfa-47d6-9954-56140c451c77\">Check out my top MLB prop bets for Aug. 22, featuring a prediction on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/jose_quintana\/pitching-stats\">Jose Quintana<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-22b3784f-32c2-400a-beef-1578a991be49\">MLB prop bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-0c59b741-4781-48d8-8ffa-d93f8ee90c10\"><strong>Best bet: Lowe over 1.5 total bases (+105)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Lowe enters with his best numbers since 2021, thanks to the damage he\u2019s inflicted against right-handed pitching.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He has a .552 OPS vs. left-handers, but that soars to .888 with the platoon advantage, fuelled by a .542 slugging percentage.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Lowe is walking at a career-low rate and facing a pitcher with excellent control and well-below-average strikeout numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mikolas has been a punching bag the past three seasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>His 5.30 expected ERA is the sixth-highest mark among 72 pitchers who have thrown 120-plus innings.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Mikolas has a 5th-percentile K rate, 3rd-percentile whiff rate and a well-above-average HR\/9 rate for the second straight year.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>And as Jordan Horrobin writes in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-august-22\">Friday\u2019s top home run picks<\/a>, Lowe hammers four-seamers from righties, a pitch of Mikolas\u2019 that\u2019s been getting destroyed by LHBs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That sets Lowe up well to not only put the ball in play, but do it with authority.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The conditions are favourable, too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Modest wind is expected to blow out at George M. Steinbrenner Field, a good hitting environment. We only have one year of data, but the stadium has been an above-average offensive spot and the third-most homer-friendly park in MLB, per Baseball Savant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-13bf476e-3f27-4d52-86f2-70dff07fd638\"><strong>Key stat<\/strong>: Lowe has a top-20 ISO mark vs. righties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul id=\"block-10146156-2d6b-49a8-b097-37743fd550b5\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/baseball\/competitions\/10065\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging\"><strong>MLB player stats<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/standings\/division\"><strong>MLB standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-ebade6eb-0e6a-4675-8cbc-3a4396c11ac4\">Best MLB picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Marte over 1.5 total bases (+105)<\/strong>: Marte and the Arizona Diamondbacks get Reds righty Zack Littell, who has a solid 3.52 ERA with even better run-prevention numbers since joining Cincinnati (3.06 ERA in three starts).\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But his xERA is a full run higher and he doesn\u2019t miss bats. That has led to one of the highest contact rates in MLB. Furthermore, he has the fourth-highest HR\/9 rate among qualified starters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Littell is unlikely to fool Marte, a power bat who\u2019s slugging .583 vs. right-handers and ranks fifth in MLB in wRC+.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Marte is hitting .319\/.413\/.551 in August, clearing this line in 10 of the 17 games he\u2019s started this month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Quintana over 4.5 Ks (-108)<\/strong>: Quintana isn\u2019t a big strikeout arm but I like this price more than his 17.5 outs line (-139), and I expect him to work deep.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He&#8217;s facing a San Francisco Giants club that has been abysmal vs. southpaws. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>San Francisco\u2019s 74 wRC+ vs. LHPs is the second-worst mark in MLB. The club ranks dead last in average (.210) and on-base percentage (.276).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Brewers will be counting on some length from Quintana. They received 4.1 innings out of their starter yesterday, using five relievers. On Wednesday, they got 4.0 innings and deployed four relievers. They had a doubleheader the day before that.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Quintana has logged six-plus innings in three straight starts and five of his last seven.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>He has only topped this line twice in that stretch but he\u2019s consistently flirting with this number, striking out four-plus batters in more than half his starts. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Giants have the fourth-highest K rate vs. lefties and have struck out at the fourth-highest rate in baseball this month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-571cf986-8d14-4776-b519-20fa27d04fec\"><em>MLB prop picks made at 4:05 p.m. ET on 08\/22\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I&#8217;m backing Ketel Marte and Brandon Lowe on the same market as part of my favourite MLB prop picks for Friday. Today&#8217;s MLB props narrative: I love Lowe&#8217;s matchup vs. Miles Mikolas of the St. Louis Cardinals, making him a worthy play to clear the over on his total bases prop. As for Marte, he&#8217;s [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":364282,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[130,155],"class_list":["post-364390","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb","tag-mlb-props"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB prop bets Aug. 22: Picks, predictions &amp; odds | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB prop bets for Aug. 22, 2025. 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